Ok, a few people have been mentioning Steem is dead to me recently. So, I want to clarify a little FUD that's out there and try to bring my perspective to the FUD.
First off, Steem is really hard to kill. The only way I see it dying is if the price of running a node exceeds the proceeds of running that node either for a long time or drastically for short times.
Boring witness math
Right now a top 20 witness makes 110,000 steem per year or something in that vicinity. Each Steem is worth 33 cents right now. So, witnesses are earning $36,000 per year. I run two witness nodes (and pay for half of the minnowsupport rpc, but that's separate from this). My nodes cost $120/month each. So, that's $240/month. So, that's about 3k per year. The price of steem has to get down to 3 cents before I start asking myself "do I even want to run a node here?" Maybe some of the backup witnesses would stop hosting Steemd by 3 cents, but I don't see enough leaving to stop the chain until Steem hits 3 cents. At that point it's not immediate either. I have liquid steem I don't think I'd kill my witness just cause it isn't profitable for a while. I was losing money when it first started. It can lose money again. Witnesses could also change the reward pool to ensure that there's enough money for the basic infrastructure.
RPCs cost more and maybe we could see the number of full RPCs drop or maybe even many of them stop, but in that case i think more people will band together to cover partial costs and Steemit has some cash. They may make decisions I don't always agree with, but I don't think they'd let the project die over RPCs as long as they could afford to, and they have some runway.
MIRA
More importantly than the right this second discussion is that MIRA seems pretty close. MIRA allows nodes to run with data that's currently stored in ram to be stored on hard drives. The difference in cost for that is staggering. A full node would drop from 512Gb of Ram to closer to 8 or 16 Gb. The server would go from something like $650/month to something closer to $20/month. Witness nodes are gonna be less. So, now run the math again. If it only costs $20 a month and yeah you probably run 2 for $40/month as long as you can make more than $480/yr there will be people willing to donate time to run them. Post MIRA the discussion of closing my witness starts if steem hits 0.004 cents per steem.
Steem from that end is pretty unkillable. It takes a calamity to kill steem and make the chain stop and this project completely die.
Loss of people
So, the next Fear is that Steem is running out of people that will stick around and this whole enterprise is doomed. Whales are selling, price will go down, no one will post, and even if the chain is still going the whole ecosystem is basically dead.
Some aspects of that are happening, and the price of steem vs BTC has never been worse. So, I can't outright dismiss it, but
there were 400k posts last week
4M votes
49k accounts transacting
4k new accounts created
the least net amount of steem powered down in 2 months (260k powered down below what was powered up)
Side lined
Eve online has a pretty funny idea. They think they never lose players unless they die. They just go on break. Same is true here. Human behavior is pretty predictable.
Price is high Madlib: Hi (synonym for friends), it's great to see everyone one. For the past while I've been experiencing (random excuse for leaving). It's kept me gone, but now I'm back to keep my discussion of (random blogging topic) alive and well. Great to be here, and don't forget to follow me!
Price is low Madlib: Hi (synonym for fuckfaces), you guys can eat my (sexual body part). This platform doesn't even comprehend my (self aggrandinzing adjective) ability at (random skill). You don't appreciate me and now I'm the fuck out. (entitled sign off)
My point is that people don't actually leave. They just stop posting when they don't think it's financially worth it. When it is worth it they'll all come back.
Tree Rings
I think it was @demotruk that spoke about this as rings on a tree. Every season as the tree grows it gets rings to mark the growth of the inhale and exhale of life. Steem has really thick rings. It's thick because:
Distribution makes for high amounts of sell pressure
people come to earn, when earning potential is high they flock, when it's low they leave in droves
SBD makes steem more volatile than any other crypto. At the lows we're adding 5% inflation in a year due to conversions at the high we're paying out premium SBD.
In order to improve the cycle
We need a better distribution which is already happening to some extent.
We need people who buy steem to invest rather than just earn it to cash out, so we need businesses they can park steem into
We need the crypto market cap to rise and Steem will float with it
We need the Steem Alliance functioning with coordinated efforts across the ecosystem.
We need less reliance on Steemit to do stuff and more community driven work and hype
My actual prediction
Bitcoin has already bottomed. A bear trap is forming. It's going to knock the price down again and shake out the last of the weak hands before rebounding in the face of the impending halvening. When it rebounds it's going to 100k in the next 2 years.
Steem is going to lag behind bitcoin and the rise of other altcoins. Eventually the other sexier and better hyped projects will get saturated and investors will go looking for bargain alt coins. Steem will be sitting there with big doe eyes. The price will start rising, and the rising price will attract bloggers and investors and the pendulum will swing the other way hard are fast. By the time BTC hits $100k steem will be $100/steem or more (before 2022) and the people that hodled through this or buy some at 33 cents will see something like 30,000% gains on their investment if they have the balls to hang with it to the next ATH of btc.
If you agree with that assessment then you should be dollar cost average buying in right now with what you can afford in case this analysis is wrong and the biblical flood is actually approaching (ie buy a little at a time rather than blow your wad all at once).
Anyway, that's not financial advice and all that other disclaimer shit. It's just how I see it and I hope it helps provide a non-fear based perspective from a optimist.
YES.
I'd like to add one more: those who're still here (probably around 10K human beings as we figured out in this thread), are highly committed. So while the whole market kinda experienced a recession, the Steem network did as well. The weak hands - as you called them - have left, and that's not an issue.
Those who're participating in this ecosystem right now, are 100% or even 200% comitted both to Steem and crypto in general. They're true enthusiasts, creators, builders, multipliers, ambassadors - all in one. They are strong enough to push Steem to the next level when the time has come.
#DYOR and Steem on 🤙
The Steem ecosystem is doing even much better today than when we were ATH!!
Very true, but very few notice coz they're measuring with a USD stick ;-)
We are the crypto veterans.
Posted using Partiko Android
Great to see the perspective of not only a witness but an entrepreneur that has really put skin in the game! These a certainly encouraging metrics to follow! Thanks for sharing!
Posted using Partiko iOS
Just think about how many times BTC would die!
I'm full bullish on STEEM too. First target is 10K SP that won't powerdown anytime, and I'll see from there. 20% off the first aim!
I've been powering up Steem since I started. Granted I haven't been earning it as fast as what I could have been, but I see it as more of a retirement fund 25 years from now. I was buying in when it was USD$5 and the price drop last year scared me off buying more with my limited FIAT for the time being.
But I also see the current price as an incredible bargain and an opportunity to really invest heavily in the platform for when the price does eventually climb again. (Not financial advice, just opinion).
I assume you meant GB rather than Mb of RAM/Disk.
I have also said that it is hard to kill Steem as long as we have witnesses. It kept going when Steem was 6c and some of us did well from that.
I do think Steem is struggling to grow. We get thousands of new accounts each week, but the number of active users is not increasing. We just passed 2000 dolphins, but it's been almost there for months. Minnow numbers are also not really growing. Thousands of accounts are powering down if they have not done so already.
Many of the new accounts seem to be created as potential bots. Steem will not be social if it is all bots.
I have seen dissent over groups like @SteemFlagRewards when people feel they are unfairly flagged. That is why it has to be done with care. They have to give guidance on why they do it. The last thing we want to do is put off good people. I know some people feel they are entitled to whatever rewards they can grab through vote sellers etc, but we all have the right to adjust rewards up or down. In some cases that does not happen as most will be scared of retaliation by some big accounts.
Getting some big names on board would help. Dlive got PewDiePie and they are catching up with Steem on Alexa rankings. If we can just get niche communities such as #comics, music, knitting, whatever to migrate here it might create network effects that would produce growth in real, active users.
If the witnesses, whales, orcas and dolphins want to see a return on their investment of money and/or time they have to help build the community. That can be via voting, delegation and other donations. It has been said we need a bigger 'middle class' with enough SP between them to ensure the rewards are spread wider.
Steem is imperfect, but there is nothing else with the same potential right now. Competitors are bound to arise (Dan's new baby?) and they could easily steal the limelight from Steem.
Steem on!
Somebody needs to build an app on top of Steem where the economics of the internal token or coin are more aligned with community building. The Steem economic system is a macroeconomy that is good at producing and distributing coins based on activity that is not necessarily social. Websites such as steemhunt and steemstem, and possibly others I have not seen, are examples of how to do this.
Steem's macroeconomy is not perfect but actually works fine, but it is like expecting your bank to fund a social club - you can, of course, use your bank to fund one :-)
Steem is a framework to build things on. It isn't 'fair', but then neither is life or the capitalist system. What we do have is freedom and that has value.
I don't pretend to understand all the economics, but the balance could shift with SMTs/tokens and if there were far more users with some SP. I'm interested to see where it goes.
I'm not sure encoding "fairness" would work anyway, but having enough feedback loops that attenuate behaviour that is damaging to the chain is entirely feasible. Most people obey their laws most of the time not due to a sense of fairness but a fear of retribution; if encoded, that's just a negative feedback loop.
As you say, Steem is a framework, and more than SMTs I hope that SCOT fulfills its promise of being a more flexible tool so that some projects will "reframe" the rules so that their communities can thrive with little or no interference from the underlying blockchain economy.
I'm also not saying it will be easy - but it's worth another experiment in crypto-economics.
There are also some non-economic social issues, such as the ease of keeping in touch with friends, but this article was mainly about financial issues.
People will work around algorithms. It's up to people to determine where rewards go. Flagging/downvoting is part of that, but many people will just not do it and in some cases you have to fear big retaliation. Another aspect of the freedom of Steem.
Yeah that is the point. Using a new account with a little SP is useless and your vote count nothing.
Some are migrated to EOS or just have a blog with crypto donations
I also think Steem will eventually go higher. Not to 100$ though. That seems impossible. I think 10$ is a reachable goal. But hey.. no one knows really.
Bruh... FB has 4 billion users. Steem can reach $100 steem. When people realize their participation is worth something they will change.😁
Posted using Partiko Android
bro it is possible i think 100$ is small target... crypto has only 190 billion market right now.. when money will come, steem will also rise
$100/STEEM? I'll settle for $5/STEEM. But mostly I just want the price to go down so I can become a dolphin. Or orca. Or whatever it is that is at 5,000 STEEM. That's the way to do! I think with all these great dapps building on STEEM, people that think STEEM is dead are awfully naive. Actifit, Partiko, Drug Wars, Splinterlands, and all the ones gaining traction as we speak. That's pretty dope and already way more impressive than some crap like NEO or BTG, which are both way higher on the crypto market cap league tables at the moment. But that will change. Slowly, but it will change.
And all these new tokens thanks to steem engine =)
Posted using Partiko Android
When moms start giving their kids steem for lunch money we will have made it.
Posted using Partiko Android
@remind-me on 1 January 2022
Hey @adasq, I will notify you on January 1st 2022, 12:00:00 pm (UTC)
Later! ( read more... )
I didn't know about this. Sweet!
I bought Steem when it cost $ 2. I also bought cheaper and if it drops even lower, I will probably buy more.
It's the only cryptocurrency I need and I'm not just thinking about selling at a profit. I want to be at least a dolphin in this paltform.
Do not lose faith in Steem. You need to look at this project in a long-term perspective.
I believe in Steem and it will not change!
These two Paragraphs say it all and I believe it to be the Truth. I am close to hitting the Two Years Milestone here on Steemit and more than half the People that started with me are no longer here on Steemit. Scratch that as I do see them Post once a Month which pretty much shows they want to Earn STEEM but since STEEM is at around 35 cents they don't feel like Posting.
Personally, I am loving this Bear Market as this is the Opportunity to get myself some more STEEM so that when the Bulls arrive I am all set to Ride the Waves.
Totally! When STEEM is cheap, I want to post MORE not LESS.
Posted using Partiko iOS
I’ll resteem that message!
As Steemits biggest cheerleader I hope you’re right dude.
I am here for the community and engagement. Holding #STEEM (in SP) as a long term investment.
Posted using Partiko Android
I also believe that STEEM is here to stay. People need to social, and nowadays they do this online. Fb Inc made a fortune on this, but they are always hungry for more money, and they will continue to shit their users to keep the investment funds happy. Yes, we can do a better job and make the experience smoother for beginners, but we are already greater than Fb Inc.
For steem to thrive, we simply need to use the platforms as intended. Upvote quaility posts, comment, and post, and in that order.
There are still those out there that are using their upvote power mainly for themselves and rarely if ever visiting the work of others. This makes it very difficult for a newbies to break in, for Dolphins and Minnows to do their work and believe me, we do most of the work for the platforms, and for positive word of mouth to spread.
WE NEED POSITIVE WORD OF MOUTH.
For some reason, people seem to gravitate towards using their VP to punish the abusers and not to support those that use the platform as intended. But that only hammers us all down because of the negative press connected to it.
Let me illustrate the point of why its important to spread your VP around in positive way.
Let say I am a whale with 100 000 SP. I vote mainly for myself and/or and hammer down the competition. We get steem worth 33 cents. My networth is 33 000. I make a couple hundred a week in payouts.
Now, I start to upvote those working hard creatively for the blockchain. Before they were making a quarter a week and now all of sudden because of more upvoting they are making 10 times that and there is lots of comment traffic. Steemit is making tons of ad revenue. Users are flocking in and steem is now worth a modest 1. (Could be worth a lot more) My networth is now 100 000. Its tripled and with less effort from me. I am making more in curation rewards and even more in author rewards too and with fewer posts.
We are a single entitiy on the steem blockchain. Infighting and hoarding is self-cannibalization. There is no limit to our growth and we should feed that instead.
Isn’t that a dream? People by human nature are jealous and envious. Helping others is often just for show and not because it makes people feel better. Doing things for themselves makes them feel better. And human nature can’t see the big picture, big picture that sometimes helping others helps themselves. Sometimes even more than they could dare to imagine.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Human nature is malleable and helping others does make you feel good. There are loads of people on here walking this path. For those who are not, we point out it is their best interest. They’ve yet to understand this. New balance will only be achieved and not a whole sale change. That is true. But we can work in the direction we want to see. When the wind is not favourable, you don’t turn back: you tack to get where you are going.
Very true, but that’s the thing with unfavourable wind, there’s always more deserters than those who believe in cause and see it through. It’s just easier to abandon ship. You’re right about showing them the better way though, let’s keep the conversation going and show there are people who will not turn away and who believe.
Posted using Partiko iOS
You had me with you till you mentioned STEEM at $100! I'm not going to quibble over exactly where STEEM can peak, but we have already experienced what happens when either STEEM or SBD (or both) become significantly higher than now. The system triggers have resulted in a system that is remarkably stable when looked through the lens of STEEM rather than the USD.
So much so, that STEEM seems to behave more like a bond than a stock, in the sense that the current inflation rate (which is also the interest rate) is high at about 21% APR compared to the coin production rate of about 8.5%. It seems ironic that to get the price back up (in USD terms) we need to bring that 21% down. The only way to do that is to use one's vested STEEM in rewarding activities - upvoting!
Even for those who are away, create an auto-voter that uses your daily allowance. You will come back with a bit of interest and the economy will have some juice flowing around it! :-)
Respect an resteem
Oh, how I want to believe it ...
!dramatoken
Eve will never die as long as the spreadsheets are still there
Posted using Partiko Android
It's spring, I think people are running spring fevers. Time for people in the north to think about upcoming vacation plans, and people in the south to think of last minute vacation plans before winter totally sets in. Steem is around the world, right now more people seem to be in the northern hemisphere than the southern one, but still a pretty dang good spread of people, countries and locals.
Perhaps instead of following only one countries eccentricities steem is starting to follow a world eccentricity pattern. A little turmoil around the world a little turmoil around steem.
But I don't think steem is dead, it has a long way to go before it dies.
It might be quieter but STEEM is far from dead. Every week we see more advancements and projects that will help form the future of the chain. When the people do sit up and take notice hopefully we will have the place ready for them. We still need to simplify the system and everything on it but there have been a lot of good improvements in the past year.
Already invested 150euros into steem. Might do it soon again.
Posted using Partiko Android
I think I am going to make a draft for a project that is an improved and more reliable version of everipedia, and uses elements of Youtube, Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and uses Steemit as a treasure trove for all the things that should be avoided at all cost.
Thank you very much for this explanation @aggroed, MIRA will much likely raise the price of Steem in and out of itself once it's fully implemented and most witnesses have been able to adapt to the new cost structure, so that they need to sell less amount of Steem to support their operation, and since SMTs are supposed to follow right behind this change together with your own SCOT project, Steem will be in an absolutely golden seat, and by the way do continue with SCOT, while SMTs will be on the blockchain providing the standard solution SCOT as a layer 2 will be able to be way more flexible and can catch all those edge cases where the standard SMT protocol might not always be a good fit.
Thanks for your good work for this community, and keep up the good work, #steem on!
Yes, the set of economic models as presented in the last SMT paper made them, perhaps, easier to use but not very flexible. I hope SCOT moves forward as an alternative, whether SMTs arrive or not.
👍
Posted with
I totally agree with you about "Steem is really hard to kill." Thank you for this valuable post
Posted using Partiko Android
It's kind of sad that the possibility of you doing that kind of math, here. You're a top20 witness since I have joined. (1.5/2 years?)
Don't know about before, I am pretty sure that you have earned lifetime kind of STEEM to support the network. Not mentioning you run successful projects, and these projects generated(s) a great amount of money.
So, I really can't understand the logic here. Are you running a witness node because of the profits?
If the prices go below 3 cents, will you stop your node because it's not profitable anymore?
This is my home. i have no intention of dropping a witness node, and don't think it's going to have to be under consideration. That said, I'm trying to lay out the math of why a hypothetical witness is going to come to the same conclusion that there's zero reason to stop now, and won't even need to consider it until 3 cents. The argument is meant to be more theoretical than personal.
I am not buying Dan's Steemit 2.0, it's just speculation and no product that is live yet. I believed in steem and believed it it's a future. Think about Golos, Whaleshares, Weku, etc. Did they promised us to kill steem but what happened? Same user is posting, same community. Probably, Steemit 2.0 follow the same fate as them.
Great post. And welcome back
Posted using Partiko Android
Very nice look at things. I agree with most of it. STEEM can never really die.
The price prediction? Lol. Im not seeing it. 100$ STEEM would make Steemit bigger then facebook and twitter combined.
Whales dropping 10k upvotes..
If STEEM ever hits 10 USD ill be super happy and even that is a stretch because the main thing folks outside STEEM, that heard about steem, think is that vote sellers run the place and everyone is abusing the system.
Not until we fix content placement and start rewarding quality content we can showcase will we see a price rise.
Its pretty rare that investors will put money in a project that is perceived as failing to do the one thing it promised.
I think we need to change what is being promised.
Honestly, if the marketing and the reality are so different, one of the two has to change.
I am trying so hard to stay positive, but this past year and 5 months have not given us an ounce of love.
I spent a small fortune and several BTC a couple of years ago to get most of my Steem. Imagine how that feels right now. I have posted nearly every day, never once powered down and have 23k 30 cent coins to show for it. That really hurts badly.
I get what you are saying in this post, but people are right to be pissed off. This whole thing has been so mismanaged. I feel like I lose another 1000 dollars every time that kid plays the guitar during another serious discussion.
But I won't power down. I'll keep posting and curating great content. Maybe someday it will be worth at least 10% the time, effort and money that I've poured into it.
Maybe then I can explain to my wife what happened to all that money I threw away.
You made my day! Thank you for writing this!
"Bitcoin has already bottomed. A bear trap is forming. It's going to knock the price down again and shake out the last of the weak hands before rebounding in the face of the impending halvening. When it rebounds it's going to 100k in the next 2 years."
Can't agree more on this one. Literally, One more FUD and dip is obviously needed to trigger new bull. As soon as people realize that this time train ain't going to pass by them - like the last time.
But this fidelity thing is keeping me a bit sceptical about dip, but i guess crypto is a bit more mature to fall for this one :D
I do think will get better as we go along. It will take time for crypto to bounce back but it will as it has done before. I am a very small channel and I post every now and again, not very often as my post makes about 40 cents a post. So it is discouraging to spend the time to post and make nothing.
With all the other platforms that are a clone of Steemit out there, people have kinda jumped ship to post there, saying basically the grass is greener there. I am not really sure of that, to be honest, I have not seen that it is so far.
I think I will just hang out and do what I am doing and look to the future and see if I can build here or not. I hope I have better luck with making more on posts, not sure how to do that right now. I have followers just no real upvotes.
Have a great day everyone and a greater tomorrow!
I just see a bargain with steem at these prices!
I'm glad I can afford to treat it as an investment rather than relying on it for an income.
Posted using Partiko Android
"400k posts last week"
How many were spam?
that's an amazing information, steem won't dead easily. Imagine we already experienced hard times but still many of us stood up and in fact many were new thinking to join steem. That's why if someone said that steem will dead, "fuck off, we are united and we have many communities.
By the way thanks for the information in the discord. It helps me to realize also my curiosity about this kind of topic.
Posted using Partiko Android
So a 30x reduction in the cost of running those servers should translate into a 30x reduction in the STEEM being sold to cover the running costs of witnesses. That's a lot of STEEM not being sold going forward.
rise again
Posted using Partiko Android
You make some good points here,in my case I have been busy with mainstream work and have found it hard to post as often as I once did, but a rising tide lifts all ships as the saying goes.
This is an amazing piece of information .. kudos . Man ..!!
Posted using Partiko Android
Steemit really should introduce ad-revenue sharing program with authors.
ps. Wow your node cost is much cheaper than I expected. Is this due to recent efforts of downsizing? May I ask which service are you using?
proud privex customer
Thanks for your reply :)
I agree, I especially would like to see this on platforms such as dtube because I currently don’t think it’s appealing for big influencers due to the amount they would earn on YouTube. Regardless of influencers I think I have seen other platforms attempt this (another video site) and think it could be quite a nice USP for a blogging site too.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Thanks for your comment.
Lol I liked the sidelined section it's so true it's not even funny, ok I lie it's actually really funny. I honestly just have fun on here, not really in it to make heaps of cash thats what I use other alt coins for this is just where I choose to hang out on the internet and support cool projects. The money is but a by-product, having said that $100 would be insane. I'd just like it to happens so I can get something a lot more valuable than money and thats the "I told you so" ill be throwing around like a legend
Sidelined section shows exactly that those people are just parroting each other. Whether it's here on Steem or everywhere else somehow people feels entitled for disproportionately large rewards for something not as valuable as they think.
Ha.
!dramatoken
#sbi-skip
Here's your
DRAMA. Don't spend it all in one place!To view or trade
DRAMAgo to steem-engine.com.Posted using Partiko Android
Here's your
DRAMA. Don't spend it all in one place!To view or trade
DRAMAgo to steem-engine.com.I always have a plan B for any eventuality.
Thanks for the info :)
At least we have some numbers here.... 3 cents to die, 100$ to shine!
Some good opinions there
Posted using Partiko Android
The FUD around here has been ass deep last couple weeks. It was nice to read your Anti-Fud piece.
I have been bullish on steem and steemit the whole last year. The price action, lack of volume, drop in capitalization and market share, the on board FUD has finally shifted my brain to neutral. And I am finally working on an exit strategy, something I should have done before. If the price of Steem does not at least go back up over a dollar (and the action this spring does not support a belief that it will) then I think Steemit will never return to what it was.
And still, I have yet to see posts about a better platform here... Correct me if I'm wrong.
Posted using Partiko Android
I dont want to believe its dead. Its just under coma.. we just need to keep telling him stories so he could wake up! 😁
Posted using Partiko Android
Awesome! I like your disclaimer 🤘😆
Great insight! Its a very welcome and much appreciated perspective we just need to hear right now. Ride on sir!