Betting results
Let’s start with the betting results because those are easy. It was a complete wash-out. In contrast to the HF21 implementation it didn’t even have a smooth start. I was doubting about skipping this round due to two postponed games, leaving only 6 games left to choose from. After some doubt I decided to play the round anyhow and that was a mistake! Lesson learned!
Only the Trifold 1X2 came close. On this betting slip I only had the game between STVV and Zulte wrong. Still surprised that Zulte wasn’t capable of winning this game.
On the other slips only 1 of the 3 games correct! So a bummer.
So for the first time this season I am in the red. From the 5 rounds, only 2 have made a profit. This resulted into a negative ROI of 17.17%.
The BR still has 5.29 units in it! So next round I do need to win at least one bet!
| Betting type | Bets | Ante | Pay-out | P/L | ROI | Winning bets | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPL Trifold Win | 5 | 5 | 0 | -5 | -100,00% | 0 | 0,00% |
| JPL Trifold BTTS | 5 | 5 | 9,07 | 4,07 | 81,40% | 2 | 40,00% |
| JPL Trifold O/U 2.5 | 5 | 5 | 4,39 | -0,61 | -12,20% | 1 | 20,00% |
| JPL PTS Double | 1 | 0,25 | 0 | -0,25 | -100,00% | 0 | 0,00% |
| JPL CS Double | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -100,00% | 0 | 0,00% |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Overal | 20 | 16,25 | 13,46 | -2,79 | -17,17% | 3 | 15,00% |
European Football
Well today and tomorrow we do have 3 teams trying to reach the groups stages of the Champions League or Europe League. At the moment we are already assured to have 3 teams in the group stages with Genk in the CL and Club Brugge and Standard in the EL.
Last year we did have 4 teams in the group stages with Club Brugge in the CL and Anderlecht, Genk and Standard in the EL. Combined they did collect 39 points! Which are also needed this year to stay at spot number 8 in the Uefa Coefficients ranking.
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Genk | 15 |
| Club Brugge | 11 |
| Standard Liege | 7.5 |
| Anderlecht | 3 |
| AA Gent | 2.5 |
| - | - |
| Total | 39 |
To be able to stay at position 8 we do need between 7 or 8 points at least! Points are earned by winning games in the qualification and regular competition of both the Champions and Europa League. For a win you will get 2 points, for a draw 1 point and no points for loosing a game. But also bonus points can be earned. Reaching the group stage of the Champions league for instance will give you a boost of 4 points. The points for the qualification games are halved. All earned points are divided by the number of teams who did play in Europe. For Belgium this is 5.
So let’s see how important it is that at least Antwerp or AA Gent will reach the group stage of the Europa League!
Point this season so far
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Genk | 4 |
| AA Gent | 3.5 |
| Club Brugge | 2.5 |
| Antwerp | 1.5 |
| Standard | 0 |
| - | - |
| Total | 11.5 |
11.5 / 5 is 2.3. So we should collect around 5 points more this season. Or 25 team points.
How can we collect those!
KRC Genk
I don’t see Genk winning lots of games in the Champions League, so they won’t earn a lot of points more. When the draw will take place, Genk will be in pot 4. Normally they don’t stand a chance against the teams from pot 1 and 2, so they should hope on a team from pot 3 against which they maybe can draw or win at home.
They did earn already 4 points because they are automatically qualified for the CL. This evening we will know all the pots and we can start dreaming about an excellent draw!
Club Brugge
Due to good result in the qualification games they already earned 2.5 points. Winning or drawing this evening against LASK would earn them 1 or 0.5 points extra and they will also of course get the 4 bonus points. I do expect that they will qualify for the CL. Which will bring their total on 7. Adding an extra 0.8 points for Belgium.
But they also do need to hope on a great draw. 2 top teams from pot 1 and 2 and a team from pot 4, which does give them changes to end on the third place, giving them the safety net of Europa League football after NewYear.
But also if they don’t qualify for the CL, they will be qualified for the Europa League. Here they will be probably in pot 1, so they should be able to win at least 3 or 4 games in their group. This would give them 6 or 8 points. Which is probably more than they would earn by playing the CL.
Regardless of this I do hope that they do reach the CL. It would be great to have two Belgium teams in the CL!
Standard
0 points at the moment, because they haven’t played a single European game this season. Last season they did earn 7.5 points. And for Belgium it is crucial they will earn these again! We do need 25 points at least, so 7.5 points would make things so much easier!
AA Gent
Last season they did fail to qualify for the group stages of the Europa League. This did result in earning only 2.5 points. With good result and starting very early in the qualification rounds they already did collect 3.5 points. But they do have a change against Rijeka. They can defend a 2-1 home victory and were the better team! But that away goal from Rijeka could be troublesome. I do give AA Gent a 60% chance of qualifying. They do have the 1 goal advantage and do score easily! Also they didn’t have to play during the past weekend because their game was postponed to be able to focus for 100% on this game.
When qualified they will be probably in pot 2. Which should give them the possibility to win at least 2 games more and earn 4 more points for them and 0.8 points for Belgium!
Antwerp
While AZ maybe was the better team Antwerp got away with a 1-1 draw! But I don’t see them speculating on a scoreless draw. They will attack and will be backed by around 25K fans. So yes I do give them a change! Both teams did see their regular competition games postponed to be able to fully focus on this game!
So far Antwerp has earned 1.5 points. So if they would qualify for the EL, this would give the Belgian Coefficient an enormous boost!
Overall it would be great to have 2 teams in the CL but that can come with a cost if we look at the UEFA Coefficient.
It is crucial for our Coefficient that at least Gent or Antwerp, and preferably both, do qualify for the EL. If both do miss the boat, than the chance exists that we will drop a place.
Cheers,
Peter
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Nice summary of how the situation is. I have a feeling Gent will have the hardest task, but all 5 is definitely possible! I’ll be watching!
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Me too! I am just doubting if I will go watch with some friends at the local pool bar, or if I will watch with the oldest son!
I do think it will be the last!
Indeed, I also think Gent will have a hard time winning their game. The team is weak.
That' s not so weak. It's a matter of the right trainer approach. You can squeeze much more out of them!
Indeed, I am not convinced of Thorup's qualities too... With the current squad, they should be a title contender!
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