If you asked people in the 1900 what they wanted, they would have replied faster horses.
This gives you an idea of how people view technology. Our minds are naturally conditioned to look at what is taking place and accurately projecting it forward. Ultimately, we tend to underestimate how things progress.
At the same time, we are also awful in our timeline projections. Things, over the long term, move faster than we think.
Here is an image of New York City, 13 years apart.
The Disruption of Labor
I know there are a lot of futurists who claim that "technology always creates more jobs than it destroys". Personally, as stated in other articles, I do not think this accurate the last 25 years. Nevertheless, looking ahead, the pace of technology is surely to cause massive upheaval.
Reverting back to the image above, what got disrupted? Obviously, the horse was the component eliminated from society. As Tony Seba wrote in a blog post, humans are now the horses.
In other words, the disruption of labor is rapidly approaching. This is due in part to the rise of the robots, specifically humanoids.
Here is a forecast of how it could look:
Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045.
This is the driving factor.
We are about to see massive deflationary pressure hitting the market. Notice the forecast deals with cost per hour. Naturally, our mind goes to what we know.
Humans work roughly 2,000 hours per year. That is 50 weeks at 40 hours/week.
It is also present day thinking. A humanoid robot can operate 15, 18, or even 20 hours per day, 7 days per week. We are likely to see 7,000 hours per year of output.
Taken from another perspective, if the robot operates 7,000 hours per year, and is in the force for 5 years, we have 35K hours. At a cost of $50K (a number I made up), that is $1.42 per hour.
That is a rate humans cannot compete with.
So what are people to do?
Web 3.0: The Ownership Model
Read-Write-Own
This is what we are told the next generation of the Internet is going to be. I have news for everyone: most things will be tied to the Internet.
The key here is ownership.
People who are looking at this situation, considering solutions, are all thinking income. They are basically asking how do we sustain people when income labor is removed?
Obviously, our entire economic model is built upon the concept of labor. This is something that was broken for a long time and continues to get worse as governments get involved. Of course, we can expect their foolish participation in the future, mucking things up even more.
To me, the starting point is this: labor income is dead.
If we start from this premise, then we can advance in our quest for solution. This means we are thus forced to look at the other alternative, capital income.
We all know this, it is "the rich get richer" that we hear so much about.
Essentially, it all boils down to the ownership of assets. To frame it another way, it is the owning of the economic production. Here is where Web 3.0 is already ahead of the curve.
One of the basic potentialities of Web 3.0 is to distribute economic productivity in a different manner. This is removed from the ism, usually capitalism or communism. Instead, it requires a new adaption, with completely new metrics.
Most associate Web 3.0 with owning the fruits of one's content. Actually, it is much bigger than this.
We are looking at a potential way of structuring the ownership of the economic productivity that is generated across the world.
In other words, the tokenization of everything actually applies to everything.
S Curves
There are always a number of S Curves in operation. Some are on the ascent while others going in the opposite direction.
Notice what happened between horses and automobiles. Again, replace the horses with humans and automobiles with robots.
The S Curve is guaranteed.
Consider this, in the US it takes $21K per year to raise a kid. If we use 1 million kids, that is roughly $21 billion per year. Over the course of 18 years, we are spending $378 billion before we have these people somewhat ready for the workforce.
Using the cost of $50K from before (which I think is high), we are looking at $50 billion for 1 million robots. However, unlike kids, they are ready to produce from the start. There is no lag. Thus, instead of $378K and 18 years (at a minimum) to prepare a human, we can spend $50K and a few weeks.
Which do you think will become the preferred model?
Of course, we have to include the fact that many other technologies are feeding into this. There is progress being made in computing, actuators, vision, and telecommunication systems. All of this feeds into the capabilities of robots.
Here is another unavoidable fact:
Robots are the most expensive and least productive as they will ever be.
Think about that for a second.
What this likely means is we are only going to see an acceleration of things. The compounding effect multiplies as more S curves overlap.
So what are humans to do?
In Conclusion
With all the talk of green candles, bull markets, and whatever else dominates the crypto world, we are overlooking the major challenges of our time. Web 3.0 isn't about moonshots or Lambos. Hell, it isn't even about social media.
These are simply aspects of a much larger system.
Web 3.0 is the solution to the upcoming labor issue we will see. Bet the ranch we will see solutions proposed that put the government at the center of everything. We will have for income redistribution, taxing the robots, minimums numbers of humans having to be part of the labor force by law, and a host of other things doomed from the start.
There will be those calling for the bans of the robots.
Nevertheless, we are dealing with a global situation that is going to usurp any government.
Of course, it was people in government who thought this was a good idea:
Source
All of this is going to happen quicker than people think.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
Well written and I couldn't agree more. Robots are already replacing fast food workers and they will only become better and more efficient eliminating expensive human labor. There will be squabbles about having to hire more people, especially by labor unions and it may get ugly. It wouldn't be a bad time to be in the robotics industry! Web 3.0 is fundamentally changing the world, I'm just glad I'm one of the early adopters.
wow taskmaster these are some really old pictures, just 13 years apart 😳 technology really changes so fast
Absolutely, in the last 25 years technology creating more jobs has really not been too accurate... I 💯 agree with you
Indeed,. I'm thankful Web3 is here as the solution, I can't bare to imagine a future where jobs become harder to find than it already is
Absolutely, some already advocating against robots replacing people already
My personal take on your amazing blog is that we really should strive to evolve with Web3 faster before Robots and AI do more damage than good
Thank you @taskmaster4450 for the heads up...so true!
Cheers!
I love your blog Taskmaster, pure genius work
It's remarkable how much change can happen in just over a decade. The transformation of New York City in 13 years is a testament to the rapid pace of urban development and technological advancement. It's a reminder to always anticipate change and embrace innovation.
I personally believe humanoid robots are idiotic. Why make robots look like humans? It must be arrogance or hubris IMHO. As a mechanic I can't tell you the number of times I wished I had an extra arm or two. So why not build robot that have extra arms? Or that can lift a car up without a jack? How many times have you whished you had an extra tool in your tool belt, a properly designed robot would be equipped with all the necessary tool at all times?
I worked as a steel erector for quite a few years and I can tell you a steel erecting robot will not look remotely like a human. It would have bins for bolts, numerous arms capable of equipping different tools (alignment pins, sockets, wrenches, clamps, etc...), it would be able to climb vertical columns with ease, it would be able to remotely operate the crane, it would be able to weld, the list goes on but I can tell you for damn sure it would not need to look anything like a human, hell it would not even need a head, you could put eyes all around it so it can see everything all at once.
Sorry for the rant but the whole concept of humanoid robots is just so inefficient and it bothers me. I think we should be look at this differently - purpose build multitasking robots? What do you think?
I'm hearing a lot of this now in most of the podcasts I listen to. "AI is the devil except when I use it to enhance my craft."
It's the same mindset as ancient craftsmen, and modern businesses, that murdered potential competition so they can have a monopoly on the means of production.
I understand one tends to stand on the side that suits them, but considering there's never been a time in history that a technological wave was stopped,one would think we'd have learned to start looking to get ahead of it as a matter of routine.
That is very exciting and scary at the same time. Exciting because there are a lot of possibilities open to us. Scary because I know of a lot of people that are barely able to use the internet apart from social media. I don't know what will happen to them in this future.
You've certainly done well at presenting a thought provoking perspective on the potential economic impact of robotics compared to traditional human labor.
While the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of robots in certain tasks are undeniable, there are also broader societal implications to consider, such as job displacement and the need for retraining and reskilling the workforce.
Ultimately, balancing technological advancements with human welfare will be crucial in navigating the future landscape of job opportunities and employments.
You've said all. As far as I am concern, there is always a two sides of a coins. Technology will always present to us its two sides. Improved efficiency on job on one side and denying certain job opportunities to the masses on the other side even some of us who are in the developing nations.
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