I wouldn't anticipate today's rally to be part of a bull-run to new highs. Rather, it is more likely a sideways or slightly down whipsaw action. In bear markets there are plenty of peaks higher, just the runs down go farther than the runs up. Very often, people are hopeful on those little bounces upward thinking the declines are over with. That said, I don't think this is a bear market, just a slower consolidation move in the midst of a long-term bull market.
Three types of consolidation and the mood observations that accompany them:
Fast Consolidation - Fast crash, fast recovery to new highs, often forming a V shape. When it crashes to abrupt lows from a very recent high, you see immediate capitulation in the market. People boohoo the thing that was great two weeks prior. It's crashing, the bubble has popped, "it's over!" Due to all the sellers capitulation in a drastic sell move, often about 50% of the value of the coin from the high, these are opportune moments to buy, and catch size able gains. They also seem like the dumbest time to invest in something, which is what makes them such a great time to invest. (See Dash movements in video.)
Slower Consolidation - Often forms a sideways movement, as prices bounce up and down within that range. The onset of this period, people expect an immediate bullish recovery and continuation of the bull-market move which they have previously experienced. As their hopes are dashed, we may see several dips to a lower support level. In other situations, buyers create a shelf of support at a certain price level which is not violated and the market becomes 'boring', just going sideways, neither up much or down much. When either the capitulation of an anticipated crash or the capitulation of boringness ensues (low volume), this marks the end of the consolidation move. (See Steem chart, spikes higher, without great crashes following, but shelf-like consolidation sideways.)
Full Crash, Long Recovery - Bitcoin circa 2013 to 2015... Bitcoins crash during this period of time marked a crash into a boring sideways move that lasted a considerable amount of time. After the panic left the market, we saw sideways action as the market did a whole lot of nothing.
I agree 100 percent. And I think that some price consolidation is healthy right now. The type of exponential growth we were seeing in the crypto markets, especially in the last couple months, was just flat out unsustainable.
I've been in crypto for the better part of six months . . not long, compared to many others, but long enough to know when I see correction and consolidation. The attempt at washing out the weak hands. And then, wouldn't you know it, many coins bounced right off the 50 percent retracement, like clockwork.
I wouldn't anticipate today's rally to be part of a bull-run to new highs. Rather, it is more likely a sideways or slightly down whipsaw action. In bear markets there are plenty of peaks higher, just the runs down go farther than the runs up. Very often, people are hopeful on those little bounces upward thinking the declines are over with. That said, I don't think this is a bear market, just a slower consolidation move in the midst of a long-term bull market.
Three types of consolidation and the mood observations that accompany them:
Fast Consolidation - Fast crash, fast recovery to new highs, often forming a V shape. When it crashes to abrupt lows from a very recent high, you see immediate capitulation in the market. People boohoo the thing that was great two weeks prior. It's crashing, the bubble has popped, "it's over!" Due to all the sellers capitulation in a drastic sell move, often about 50% of the value of the coin from the high, these are opportune moments to buy, and catch size able gains. They also seem like the dumbest time to invest in something, which is what makes them such a great time to invest. (See Dash movements in video.)
Slower Consolidation - Often forms a sideways movement, as prices bounce up and down within that range. The onset of this period, people expect an immediate bullish recovery and continuation of the bull-market move which they have previously experienced. As their hopes are dashed, we may see several dips to a lower support level. In other situations, buyers create a shelf of support at a certain price level which is not violated and the market becomes 'boring', just going sideways, neither up much or down much. When either the capitulation of an anticipated crash or the capitulation of boringness ensues (low volume), this marks the end of the consolidation move. (See Steem chart, spikes higher, without great crashes following, but shelf-like consolidation sideways.)
Full Crash, Long Recovery - Bitcoin circa 2013 to 2015... Bitcoins crash during this period of time marked a crash into a boring sideways move that lasted a considerable amount of time. After the panic left the market, we saw sideways action as the market did a whole lot of nothing.
Fantastic comment @crypto-investor
I agree 100 percent. And I think that some price consolidation is healthy right now. The type of exponential growth we were seeing in the crypto markets, especially in the last couple months, was just flat out unsustainable.
I've been in crypto for the better part of six months . . not long, compared to many others, but long enough to know when I see correction and consolidation. The attempt at washing out the weak hands. And then, wouldn't you know it, many coins bounced right off the 50 percent retracement, like clockwork.