(taken with Leica M10-P)
With the return of the bulls, we also see the proliferation of prophets; returning ones who have hidden in a cave since early 2018, and new ones who understand enough about crypto to make predictions but have yet to discover the full complexity of this new market and its inherent unpredictability.
In his enlightening book Antifragile Nicholas Nassim Taleb explains that to become antifragile (people who have not yet read the book would use robust instead) one has to become independent on all aspects one cannot control. Design a plan which does not need any predictions. To survive, one must eliminate any strategy that bears the risk of ruin.
Do you think anybody knows the price of Bitcoin one, two, or five years from now? Of course not. However, the price will undoubtedly fall onto a few of the thousands of predictions that are published these days, thereby giving birth to a random bunch of new prophets.
Taleb writes, "There are ample empirical findings to the effect that providing someone with a random numerical forecast increases his risk-taking, even if the person knows the projections are random." I have witnessed this first-hand a few times.
What Antifragile suggests is to design a strategy for life (or investments) which avoids ruin above all things. If you manage to stay in the game long enough, you have the opportunity to overcome setbacks and succeed.
Any step to get out of debt is helpful in this respect. Concerning profits that have been reaped by accepting potentially ruinous risks, Taleb quotes Seneca with "He is in debt, whether he borrowed from another person or from fortune."
To summarize the above: Don't hope! Try to do better.
(I highly recommend the above-cited book to anyone who wishes to strengthen his or her decision-making.)
We do not have fund to invest in crypto, the little we have, we invest in the lives of these little children, we strongly believe in their future, what we do on Steem blockchain is that we’re trying to socialize them to the outer world believing that blockchain will help in healing our world from many diversity of man made social enslavement.
Thanks for your support @mariusfebruary, we’ve followed you for a while now, observing your personality and willingness to support Steem blockchain.
Dear @mariusfebruary Well, I must definitely read that book every literary resource that helps me to better understand what is worth reading, thanks to the recommendation. Now we must also expect the behavior of that run and it will not be in the short term that the results could be seen, I believe that it must be a medium term, in the short term there may be a lot of execration in that run. I think we should wait, (it's my point of view.)
Hi, @mariusfebruary!
Antifragile sounds like a phrase we usually say around here: What doesn't kill you, strengthens you.
Thanks for sharing
Exist only one guy who knows all the predictions about Bitcoin, This guy is Satoshi Nakamoto.. The only huge thing is that nobody knows him, maybe it is a group of people.. huge dilemma..!!!
Everyone in this is world just pretend that they know everything about Bitcoin, but seriously it is not true..!!
Everything is really interesting because nobody knows what will happen at the end..!!
Amazing don’t you think my friend @mariusfebruary ..??
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Dear @mariusfebruary
Well, I must definitely read that book
We will wait for your reading, I love the picture you placed. It is very difficult to prevent the price of these coins, they go up and down, but we are still reading and writing here.
mariusfebruary you were born in February that's why the nick, I was born in February
This sorta antifragile mindset has been by -far- the most difficult thing to achieve as a musician with two decades in the game. A huge part of me getting involved with Steem and blockchain based music outlets has been in the spirit of monetizing the process....effectively “preventing ruin” by virtue of making money no matter which project I’m on (or how little it pays!)
It is easy to romanticize throwing it all away and moving to a larger market but the work I’m putting in now will hopefully accomplish that task in the end....without becoming destroyed by the day to day of keeping the water and power on.
Woo friend @mariusfebruary very ben analyze the situation, thanks for sharing.
This would be something like diversifying the economy or investments?
Certainly there are many people with their hopes placed on cryptography, many also with very large investments. The cryptography arrived, broke into the economy brought many benefits and profits but became a bit like uncontrollable and unpredictable.
We hope that the adoption will stabilize and grow, but since we do not know the future, it is best to make sure by another means.
Very good thanks.
Yes, two completely different sets of people. I started in early 2018 but never hid in the cave, so to speak.
It's still too complicated yet for mass adaption, and has too many hoops to jump through.
The first lot of 'hiders' will be fine though, until the bears come back.
Nice photo! Wow! My dream camera Leica!
I don’t believe in Prophets! They can make mistakes!
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The concept of becoming antifragile is really thought provoking. I am thinking about it and how I can develop it, I will read that book you have suggested.
My boyfriend is antifragile person, a total nutshell but I am very fragile persons, always getting thrown in the air easily.
This quality is one to develop for sure.
What about you, are you antifragile? upto some degree?
The summary is a powerful nugget to always keep at heart!
Thanks for dropping this knowledge and advice as well @mariusfebruary
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Good morning @mariusfebruary, very good information, I am starting to study about the subject, I will look for the suggested book "Antifragile, Nicholas Nassim Taleb", thank you very much!
I'll borrow this one. It's a healthy vision. I have grown increasing skeptical about anyone who says is sure about economic, political or natural outcomes. There is more randomness in human, and even natural affairs, than we are willing to give credit to.
Thank you for this insightful post. Will have to read the book. It sounds intriguing.
The little I gleaned has given me a sense of liberation, after literal years of crossed fingers, I think I have somehow reached a place of peace regards my expectations, and I calmly invest in what I believe in.
Also thank you for your kind encouraging on my last post. Much appreciated. 🙏🏽
That's what I'm going to do when this bull market really takes off to try and be more antifragile in my decisions regarding crypto.
effectively by virtue of making money no matter which project I’m on
Of course, I have read Black Swan and it has certainly shaped how I think about investment today. I believe that it must be a medium term,
@mariusfebruary You are a good man Thank you for giving me upvote in my post.
A very inspiring post - thanks for that.
And also thanks for the advice to read the book "Antifragile" - I'll give it a try.
This is very interesting! And you can actually see this all around. People doing (stupid?) things even if they know better.
Thanks for sharing!
STEEM ON!!!
Indeed it is very inspiring publication @pundito
Interesting!!! I've been looking for a few new books to read and now I will add this and see if a few people would like to join me!
(I love discussing good books hehehe so it's nice to share them and the banter about how to apply them to life!). How I learn best! Hehehee
I'm currently trying to think of some new way to affect steem for the better and perhaps this will help me to adopt a strategy for success!
Thanks for sharing! Looking forward to reading!!!!
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P.s. the photo!!!! I just noticed...thr dotted line at the edge of the road!?!?
Is this common?! Hahhaa
In America, dotted lines mean we may cross. But there... Where would they cross to? Hahaha
Very interesting shot!!!!
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@mariusfebruary, Definitely just hoping and just Prediction will not work. If we truly want to succeed then we need a plan with a pattern.
And only our action will make us and let Fortune do it's part because it's uncontrollable aspect. Only we can decide to walk left or right in life.
Good to know about this Book. I don't read books much but definitely will go through about it on Internet. Thank you so much for letting us know. Stay blessed.
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I clicked for the nice photo and learned by reading through.
Thanks for sharing your insight about this matter and also a good book reference.
It's actually easy for others to talk expertly about investment when their money is not on the line of fire which for me is a "noise" and not the kind of learning that I need.
“Non est ad astra mollis e terris via"
“We suffer more often in imagination than in reality”
“If a man knows not to which port he sails, no wind is favorable.”
“True happiness is to enjoy the present, without anxious dependence upon the future, not to amuse ourselves with either hopes or fears but to rest satisfied with what we have, which is sufficient, for he that is so wants nothing. The greatest blessings of mankind are within us and within our reach. A wise man is content with his lot, whatever it may be, without wishing for what he has not.”
“No man was ever wise by chance”
Oh yeah! Lucius Annaeus Seneca a cynic wise old fucker with a 20/20 accurate hindsight on the future. ;)
I think that the financial world, whether material or virtual, despite the studies that are done, will always have their surprises, which must be taken into account whenever they have to fall ... and you have to be prepared for that, because if it is not prepared the consequences would be serious.
I consider any of my investments as a gone money. If anything comes out of them after a decade or more, it's a nice surprise.
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Great insights you shared from the book. Many are lost in the illusions if ever forecasting than they themselves believe in their forecast. Many are prophets who themselves are doubting their prophesy. How do I know?
Most of of the crypto prophets only seem to enjoy the fame of their words not deeds. They never Will invest in Bitcoin even when they see a future that is green. I wish such would read this submission of yours.
Thank you for supporting Steem.
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So great I’m going to resteem it! Antifragile has been on my list for ages. Of course, I have read Black Swan and it has certainly shaped how I think about investment today.
"He is in debt, whether he borrowed from another person or from fortune."
Aw man, i just love this!
Process > Results
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The Leica M10-P is not much of a monster in lens but the decent ability is so astounding, awesome shot.
As for predictions Many people are eating their words really the instability of the market has been so gazumping
Hi Jose! Hehehhee
Now that I see you....I'm.reminded.to go visit your blog again 🤗
So many friends on Steemit... I love passing them.by in the comment section and wondering how they are...and then.....time to go visit again!!!! Lololol
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Thanks for the book recommendation! I think that tactic can get adapted for many many aspects in our lifes. To be robust and prepared for almost any circumstances in life can be a hard task and is almost impossible but to only think about it and be prepared for the future is a good way to start :P
As you've said: no one can know the price of any good/service/coin in some years because our times are so fast and innovations are coming every minute.
Better to be prepared than to swim with all the other fishes and get frustrated.
I like the picture as always ;)
Peace!
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Hi tib 😊
I like finding you in comment sections hehehehe
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Hey haha yeah I am smiling as well when i see you commenting :P
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Hehehhehee it's like hugging someone that you don't expect to see;
Ready? Here it.comes..
🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗
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🤗🤗 🤗🤗
🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗
🤗🤗🤗🤗🤗
🤗🤗🤗
🤗
I hope this will be displayed correct :D
Hehehehe well I see lots of hugs in some sort of pattern! Lololol I love the hugs but don't know...is the pattern intended? Hehehe
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Ha ha, the ultimate self fulfilling prophecy... is that one of maybe 20-30 self proclaimed crypto experts/influencers will guess right and then claim strategy.
I've made every mistake in the book apart from selling at the bottom. The biggest lesson I've learned - based on what I failed to do in the last bull run - is to scale out profit as the hype reaches fever pitch. That's what I'm going to do when this bull market really takes off to try and be more antifragile in my decisions regarding crypto. I was a complete victim of fomo last time around ☹️... but, lesson learned 🙂
There's always a silver lining ..... Unless the whole industry collapses 🤣
That book sounds interesting, I shall have to check it out.
I'll have a look, might be a great summer read. The shot with the Leica is cool @mariusfebruary
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Nice picture you really have there
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Only if we had a crystal ball but that probably would help you either :)
With the return of the bulls.. and the bullshitters I call em.. the ones that come out of caves when the going gets good again and begin a fresh gambit of over used crap rhetoric to lure in the suckers and what not.
Just go with the flow and remain true. This is all just another experience of Life is how I take it as.
Deep down my gut told me all would be fine.
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