I have only just joined Steemit and not even set up my profile yet. In a sentence .... I am a crop Farmer primarily / ex fx trader of 10 years / commencing as Nutritional Therapist and Advanced Supplements Adviser. / Active with cryptos and metals since March 2017. I have been following Cypto Investor and Data Dash on YouTube.
I believe if you look at the chart for Bitcoin this year you can see a clear 5 wave advance with a massively extended 5th wave.(Elliott Wave analysis). The 5th wave is sometimes called the “lemmings” wave, when all the least informed buyers are running over each other to buy at any cost for fear of missing out - that’s a general understanding, not my personal view, so don’t shoot the messenger!
Wave 1’s tend to be savvy contrarian or insider type buyers. Wave 3’s are often the longest waves supported by well informed buyers on a much larger scale than wave 1 buyers.
If this is a completed 5 wave advance, concluding as Wall Street opened up its futures markets, we have topped for now and the entire 5 wave will be corrected deeply, often to specific Fibonacci levels, e.g. losing 61.8% to 76.4% of this year’s gains. This should trace out in three waves - down, up and further down to meet the final target, in an appropriately proportioned time span - a few months or more..
The structure of waves is not necessarily easy to pick up, as this is a fractal system of waves within waves I.e. a wave 1 of one degree will have a structure of 5 waves at a smaller degree. It is worth just googling Elliott Wave to understand the basics. It’s useful to view charts over multiple time frames - weekly, daily, 4 hourly, hourly.... to look for confirmation of patterns. Sometimes they are not at all clear and so other forms of chart analysis take precedent. None the less, the very visual nature of Elliott Wave has a place in chart analysis.
Bitcoin may be in for an alarming run down, over the next few months. If it happens, it will shake as many people out of bitcoin as possible. I am sure this is what Wall Street wants to see and could really undermine the decentralized nature of crypto currencies. Cryptos are thinly traded compared to Wall Street’s massive and orchestrated volumes of trade. The one thing that may catch out Wall Street speculators is the massive volatility that exist within cryptos. Stops cannot be set too closely or they will be triggered.
Are there any crypto investors here who use Elliott Wave analysis regularly?
Thank you for the post mooringsman and I'm happy you joined Steemit. It's cool to have such a diverse group of people who follow the channel. I've never been big on Elliot Wave analysis, but I know a decent amount of people use it with good success. My favorite likely has to go to Avi Gilburt, however I don't follow that type of analysis frequently because I tend to think most TA is far too open to interpretation. However, if you can make sense of it from a market rationale point of view, then it can be quite a powerful tool which it seems like that is what you are doing (rather than ONLY charting).