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RE: Bitcoin Price Analysis From a Long-Term Perspective (English/Turkish)

in #bitcoin6 years ago (edited)

I like your simple and clear writing. However, there is no value using curve fit that doesn't fit. What predictive value does that provide? If the correlation is low, then you must find a model that represents the data. Simply using a linear or exponential or polynomial curve is not a very useful exercise. Also, your conclusions do not follow from your analysis, since you make new points that have nothing to do with your analysis. I'm not trying to be harsh. I'm an engineer. If others read your post and start using Excel and it's linear curve fit to get an equation for Bitcoin price with it's obviously low correlation, then some may think they can actually predict it's value.

The more useful prediction is to watch the number of companies and governments (regulation) that are aggressively adopting blockchain technology, use the internet adoption curve as an analog and assume it will be similarly adopted but in a faster way. Technology speeds up over time including it's adoption. Like you, I'm a buy and hold and plan on making a lot of money from my crypto/blockchain investments. I also subscribe to top financial newsletters that provides the crypto positions with the best projects, best leadership and best on-ramp to adoption. The safest and most reliable way to invest in a highly volatile asset class like cryptocurrencies, is to buy small position sizes and forget about them. In 10 years those that did will have a meaningful change in their financial status.

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Actually, I subscribe to quite a number of top financial newsletters. One is crypto focused and voted to the top position out all crypto focussed newsletter for its depth and itspicks. I am well positioned and do not talk specifically about my positions, because it's a costly service.