My short term prediction (coming weeks)
Since mid-December last year Bitcoin entered a bearish channel, the orange channel on my chart. We see a couple of sharp drops below the lower band of the channel, but each time the price recovered even more sharply. There was a large selloff going on in the first week of February with extreme selling pressure on high volume on February 6th. I think Bitcoin set a long term bottom at $5920 on this day. I don't expect Bitcoin will ever go below this price again, but no one knows for sure of course. It's just my opinion, no trading advice ;-)
After February 6 we hade a huge rally were the price of Bitcoin doubled to the upper band of the bearish channel. Thereafter, sellers took control in the market again and the price dropped to higher low of $6427 in the first week of April. The Bitcoin bulls tried it again, but failed to break the psychological level of $10,000. Although the price broke the upper band of the bearish trend the bulls didn't manage to set a higher high yet. The good news is sellers didn't manage to set a lower low as well. The bears tested both the upper band of the bearish channel (upper orange line) and the lower band of the uptrend (lower blue line) on the same day, May 29.
If buyers can take control in the market again in the coming days/weeks, I think the first hurdle is the red line in my chart at around $9000. The next resistance is $10,300. It would not surprise me if we are going to test $10,000 again at the end of this month or early July.
My long term prediction (coming months and years)
My chart above is a monthly chart using a logarithmic scale. Bitcoin has actually never been in a bearish territory since its inception. It's a wild and crazy market so bloody corrections are part of it. The dotted middle line is the average Bitcoin price I expect in the months and years ahead. We could even see a drop to the blue line at around $5,000 to remain in a bull trend. The price surge to $20,000 was just insane. A correction was necessary. A lot is possible on this chart, but when we enter the year 2020 I expect a price somewhere between $10,000 (In my worst case scenario) and $120,000 (If the market goes crazy again). I think $35,000 is very realistic if we just follow the dotted middle line. The dotted line at the end of this year marks a price of around $14,300.
Let me know your thoughts...
Disclaimer: This is just my opinion. No trading advice.
SteemBlockExplorer.com - SteemNow.com - CoinMarkets.today
¯\___(ツ)____/¯ Follow me @penguinpablo
looks nice but at the end you never know... 😔 @peekbit
15k by the end of 2018 would be a healthy point for BTC and overall crypto market.
15k is not a prediction, it's a certainty, and I´m not being optimistic...
I would point to values of $40K to consider myself bullish.
By the way, Bitcoin 150k end of 2018. #justsaying
Interesting Expectation! I think we see at least the 20.000$ at the end of the year an the 50.000 one year later.
I am not much a predictor of price... but I am doing this for a long time. Mostly I consider myself a momentum trader. What you describe here in monthly chart is fairly reasonable. I just wish for wider adoptions... and prices will follow
thanks for the info sir :D
20K-35K seems realistic for the price of Bitcoin by 2020. I am quite sure though we'll see BTC dominance drop under 20% into next year with several of the more progressive alt coins rising above the market cap of BTC.
Mine ones (using logarithmic extrapolation), lets see how they age:
predicted price Dec 31 2018 $14,309
predicted price Dec 31 2019 $45,930
predicted price Dec 31 2020 $147,895
predicted price Dec 31 2021 $474,699
predicted price Dec 31 2022 $1,523,642
So McAfee will have to go to town on his own Sausage?? Yikes!
I completely agree with your analysis but I would add the overall institutional investment situation.
Right now, no single investor has any dought Bitcoin is an asset to have in your portfolio. Maybe a very small part of it, but any professional investor has no dough of the potential of the crypto. This means a lot more money is ready to jump in when the market starts showing a clear uptrend, at least, a lot more than the money pushing the price up to $20K at the end of last year. Add to that new money all the small retail traders wanting to join when they feel FOMO and you have a big new rally.
I have the feeling whenever the market starts pushing up, we will experience a very strong uptrend in Bitcoin and that will push also the rest of the altcoins.
I like your thoughts buddah! i feel like 14,000 -15,000 bitcoin by the end the year is definately feasible..
Really like the scenario to see it jumping to above 100K. I can wait for this 2 years, hell even 3 if we must.
This year has been rather strange compared to the past years. We also did predict the new bull runs based on the bonuses on Wall Street, the Chinese New Year and so on.
Historically May should have been a good month for the crypto markets, but this year broke this trend for May, let's hope that June will follow the previous years!
Personally I do expect that BTC will be around $15K at the end of the year, but just like you I am no financial advisor!
I think so long as President Trump is in office the market will favor the NYSE and people will generally invest there or stay in cash barring some economic downturn. I think Bitcoin is going to be used as a hedge against traditional markets and currencies and as such won’t go up much in 2018/2019 but may if we have a competitive Presidential race in late 2019/different POTUS in 2020 and likewise for the time period in 2021-2023. With Trump coming out of a second term in 2024 I can see BTC rallying especially if a non-Conservative wins. This will signal a situation where investors see the stock market as being potentially less profitable and they will buy, buy, buy BTC to hedge against DOW/NASDAQ futures and hold it until they can make a decent profit. When the big money goes into BTC the price will surge as the little people try to get a piece but we must be way ahead of the curve and in my opinion invest in other crypto because the margins will be much better for say, LTC or even Ripple, Etherium and Bitcoin Cash. I think generally cryptos all move up together but some are better than others. The easier to buy ones will perform better so anything on Coinbase will be your best bets. I think if Steemit can make it out of beta by then and steal some market share from other social media platforms that STEEM could be one of the best earners in that period of time. I can see BTC going to $100k for sure if we see another couple rallies. I also can see crypto staying put in a 10% Up/Down cycle like it has been for the most part. But play the markets daily and weekly and you can turn $1 into $10 and then into $100 and so on. If you want to make big money you need to invest big money. That or mine some new, great coins or find a shooting star that will go Moon. EOS could be one that had an Etherium-like trajectory. We shall see I suppose.
We can't predict the human behavior. We just have to wait.
Excelente post muy descriptivo
Has recibido el apoyo del Equipo Astrología Karibe Sigamos Juntos
Que valioso conocer esas proyecciones.
Has recibido el apoyo del Equipo Epicentro Karibe Sigamos Juntos
En el Epicentro Karibe seguimos brindando apoyo a la comunidad #Steemit, Noveno Reporte del Epicentro Karibe
Excelente proyección... Gracias por la asesoría...
Muy interesante proyección...
Nice one!
This is what I think:
Nice work, keep it up!
good imformition
Terrible spelling.
I'm for Mition too. It's an insecticide that is unsafe for humans.
Onk sundor content thanks apnk eee ato sundor akta content likhar jonno.
No one is still talking about the puke lower. I have been pounding the table on it and bottoms are not made on frontrunnung Support which is what has happened. It will puke. And that is the buy baby!
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@heyimsnuffles/wait-for-the-panic-puke
Do you think other alt-coins will follow or do you keep a good portion of your holdings in bitcoin directly?
Thanks always~!
The ability to move higher will largely depend on the trading volumes needed to push past resistance areas on technical analysis. There are many above $7,750.
Very nice analysis, and i do agree with you on some points. I hope it will do as you analysed the chart. It'll do us all good in the short/long run!
Nice analysis but markets are unpredictable
Another analysis that makes my prediction very easy to achieve... Your graph points to $40K by the end of the year, and that has been my prediction since the beginning of the year :D
Glad to know that I´m not an expert (at all) and still my long term predictions are very well fundamented when someone analyzes it with graphs.
My thoughts are that I don't believe in TA or price prediction for Bitcoin. It looks more like a lottery.
I also find it hard to see what is the function of Bitcoin? Does it solve any issue?
And last but not least I would really like to understand the huge price swings? What causes the price to go up and down with several percents per day or even per hour?
crazy penguin :D
100% bitcoin never bullish to 11,000 this years. I believe it will only happen in end of 2019.....