The pace of the market has really slowed down since last year, look how long it's taking relatively speaking for this correction to play out. Last year before CBOE and CME added their options and futures, this kind of laborious and inconclusive evaluation didn't present itself, or am I wrong? I wasn't following technical blogs like yours last year, so please say if I am mistaken. We must exercise restraint and patience, always, even more important now that we are approaching an inflection point.
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Last year was very different for the reasons you listed and more. We didn't have futures, but more important, we didn't have the threat of the SEC labeling certain crypto (like Ethereum) a security. We need new money in order to have another bull run. New money is waiting on regulatory clarity. Until we get that, the market will remain fairly difficult to predict in my opinion.