Starting over here in the Jakarta Globe, state palace defends its decision to increase rice imports up from half a million tonnes to 2 million tonnes due to the crop losses in Indonesia. Indonesian government is trying to avoid social chaos because according to their report, weather patterns have greatly affected rice productivity. This is what they’re trying to tell the citizens, the government is building so many roads and so many rail lines and so many parking lots and so many malls or whatever, that it’s dug into the agricultural productivity of the country and everyone is going to pay higher prices.
So far, it’s up 12% on the food inflation this year alone, so the government’s trying to raise its stockpiles to two million tonnes the highest since 2011. There’s a lot more going on behind the scenes and they’re talking about, if production is truly down that much, there is a very serious problem in that country and Asia itself suffering from crop losses specifically with rice due to massive droughts across the entire continent.
Focusing here on a report “Indian Monsoon During Sunspot Peaks”, focuses directly on Indonesia.
It’s more Southeast Asia centric. You can see how the moisture bands and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) shift during high solar activity or low solar activity. Now we’re heading into a Grand Solar Minimum, so you would expect this to shift even further on a 400-year cycle.
What I mean by that is the jet streams. This is a representation this off of Nullschool.net 500 millibar jet stream flow, this is shifting, so are the moisture patterns. When you’re seeing droughts and massive floods, these are literally moving in the sky into two different places because Earth’s magnetosphere is weaker and these Jet stream bands are allowed to move into different places that they would not normally move. All the experts are baffled why the global crop production is down.
Jakarta Globe had a great rundown on additional stories Australia East Coast drought, global wheat supply crisis levels, Asia rice, India rates up as well. Now we have India, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam all with huge spikes in rice prices, major producers, now what do you think is going to happen to the price of rice?
If the Agriculture Departments in these nations would just look at a reconstructed historical drought from the spatial data they could see during Grand Solar Minimums how intense the droughts will be? Go back in history use a history book correlate and overlap and you can find how intense the droughts will be during this Eddy Grand Solar Minimum intensification.
For those of you in the AG departments that don’t really have an idea of how this Grand Solar Minima will intensify, here’s the timeline for you. Rolling out to 2025, our danger zone is right now up to 2021 as the Earth tries to stabilize new jet stream positions and our crops are not going to handle this. We’re going to have to move to new grows zones and yields are going to decrease significantly from this point forward. We’re really at the cusp of the crop losses, and if it’s already creating this much turmoil, can you imagine what its going to be like in three years when we get really heavy losses.
I’ll give it to JakartaGlobe, they are covering the crop losses across Asia unlike other news outlets that are burying the story or not covering it at all. This comes out of Singapore, “Asian flour millers are looking for what’s considered rare wheat shipments from Argentina due to the rest of the world not being able to supply their needs”. “Russia and Ukraine expected to run out of surplus supplies by the end of the year due to their Falls in output”, but remember last year they’re saying “Oh, Russia is producing record wheat, it’s going to save the planet. There’s so much wheat coming out of Russia.” Yeah, that was last year and this leaves zero alternative origins for traders except for Argentina.
Brazil’s buying an enormous amount of that tonnage, so looking deeper into the numbers Asia requires at least 304 million metric tons, and that’s over 40 percent of the global consumption for wheat. Russia output dropping from last year’s 85 million metric tons, this year they’re going to drop to 71 million, next year they’re probably going to be below 60, and it’s going to continue like this for every producer globally. Australia it’s already been crushed by the drought and cold and these are the rosiest forecasts you’ve ever seen down 13%. Are you kidding me? That is somebody’s been eating psilocybin mushrooms and putting out the forecast that makes no sense, 13% are you kidding me? They’re talking about 75% losses.
Then just add into this put another nail right on the hammer here, Australia was crushed with a devastating frost in late spring, driving prices up to season-high $442 Australian dollars per ton on the ASX, that’s the Australian Stock Exchange. Western Australia which was spared from the drought just was reeled with these frosts. So, whoever saying minus 13 percent for Australian production should lose their job, that is such a fake number that they’re putting out there. In reality it’s closer to 70%, we’ll see as we get forward.
Although with the tail end of the article, they talk about Argentina being the savior on the planet to bring new production, yet they’re only up 1.5 million tons, these other places are minus 10 tons, minus 15 million tons, minus 8 tons over here. They’re trying to say because of the climb to 19 and a half million tons from 18 million a gain of 1.5 million tons this is going to somehow stabilize global wheat prices.
Countries that do have a supply understand that they can charge a premium and they are now putting at least at 10 percent export tax on grains. What happens when sellers understand they can get a 20 percent premium, a 50 percent premium, double premium and people are willing to pay it to get it because this supply is becoming less and less available? Benchmark in the Chicago Board of Trade, I like how they write it here and I don’t understand why they wrote it out in words gained about 1/5 this year. Well, if you’re putting on a Business Report they should have written gained 20% so far this year on tighter supplies.
I’ll bring you back to one last report “Robust Response of the East Asian Monsoon Rain Bands to Solar Variability” of course rainfall patterns change with the Grand Solar Minimum, even changes on the 11-year solar cycle, yet these forecasters can’t figure out why there are droughts and floods in places reducing rice and wheat production. Here it is right in front of you, they’ve already mapped it, out go to this report and you can see all through China exactly where these rains bands have shifted due to the Grand Solar Minimums historically.
Forecast would be absolutely droughts for northern China, very limited production coming out of there, and how many millions of tons are they producing in that region? China will also be looking for exports from other parts of the world. I’ll leave you with the correlation here, so you can see how the rain bands shift, then you can guess yourself where there will be a drought, or where it will be flooding, and where there’ll be excess production minus production or zero production.
Good luck on that, I’ll let you map out the numbers but keep in mind it’s all based on jet streams getting out of there flow due to a weakening magnetosphere in this new Eddy Grand Solar Minimum.
If you like this type of analysis, take it on the go with Mini Ice Age Conversations Podcast, thirty minutes piecing together how the intensifying Eddy Grand Solar Minimum will affect your life over the next 5 years.
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*** Today’s Story Links ***
State Palace Defends Decision to Increase Rice Imports, Says Needed to Stabilize Prices
http://jakartaglobe.id/business/state...
Asia Eyes Argentine Wheat as Drought Curbs Australian Output
http://jakartaglobe.id/international/...
Other Rice and wheat reports around Asia http://jakartaglobe.id/search/crops/
WESTERN AUSTRALIA: CROPS PUNISHED BY TWO DEVASTATING FROSTS IN A MATTER OF DAYS https://electroverse.net/western-aust...
MIAC #105 Substantial Crop Losses Globally & The Economics of Rising Food Prices
http://adapt2030.libsyn.com/miac-105-...
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