Well it really isnt that incremental when you think about it.
A 1.5% decrease in two weeks is a huge amount over the course of a year, if it held at that. I am not saying it will but when you consider a 39% move, that would be a serious hit. We should see, annually, around a 7%-10% decline in the Whales percentage of the total....as more people sign on and take from the reward pool, the Whales share goes down.
well when you put it that way ... ;) yeah it does add up. who knows what the behavior of the whales will be!
Also regarding this
I would be really interested if you could write a post explaining this a bit more- ie what may happen as more people join.
i have heard it said that steem value/price will also go up so perhaps our earnings wont change that much, but do you think, on the whole, for the average steemian, they will earn less? curious for your thoughts.
It is impossible to say.
We are looking at the user growth rate (actually the active user growth rate) versus the pricing action as determined by the market. Since we know the pricing action tends never to be reflective of what is going on, it either races ahead or lags, we know it wont be constant.
If I had to guess, I believe at a certain point, pricing action will race ahead of the user rate because markets get excited easily. Also, I feel STEEM is under priced at this point so a move ahead is warranted in my opinion.
What those rates look like is anyone's guess. However, we know there is an update being tested out so the system can be scaled so obviously the developers are well aware of this.
Logic says that as more takes place on the blockchain i.e. more users, transactions, posting, etc....the higher the price should go. I would imagine this will offset any lose due to dilution of the reward pool. However, there could be fluctuations where that is not true. For instances, if a bunch of users all sign on quickly after the process is automated, start posting immediately, and collecting from the reward pool without the market even noticing, then you might have an inversion of what I proposed.
In essence, the daily reward pool is set in the blockchain. What is coming out is coming out. Now there are roughly 60K active users sharing in that pool....imagine what happens when there are 600K or 6M....or perhaps 60M.
Huge difference in the amount paid on each post.
yes, this will have significant effects. thank you for your detailed reply! also, it would be interesting to see the stats on active users who buy into steemit (from their own pockets) when they get on steemit. if the stats were high in favorability, i presume steem value would go higher correlating with more users, but i am not sure a lot of people actually buy in. as you say, the markets are variable and excitable and often not because of anything, really.
What is this update being tested out? I think i have missed it.
thanks, again.
Even for those buying in, it gets more difficult as the price of STEEM moves higher. At $4.50, it takes $4500 to get 1,000 SP. I bought most of my stuff at between $.80 and $1.30....a big difference.
What happens when STEEM is $10 and it takes $10K to get 1,000 SP...or $20K or $50K...
We quickly are moving out of the realm of the average buyer to accumulate any SP...and people who are going to dump $100K into STEEM most likely arent posters but investors so they wouldnt be on here anyway.
As for the update, here is my post....
https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/the-steem-blockchain-is-scaling-up-news-from-the-developers
yes... that is my perspective as well- it is truly inaccessible for most. the early adopters are quite advantageous at this point! :) thanks for sharing the link. i'll go look now.