Half of 2020 has passed and I'd like to make a short recap of my forecasts for 2020 (made here: https://peakd.com/2020/@zuerich/15-forecasts-for-2020-15-prognosen-fuer-2020).
# Politics
no. 1: Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic primary elections in the US.
- wrong
no. 2: Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November 2020.
- we will see 🤡. Today I'd rather say that a third candidate like Kanye West could prevent both Democrats and Republicans from getting a majority...
no. 3: Angela Merkel steps down as Chancellor - officially for reasons of personal health, unofficially due to internal party pressure (to give her successor time to present herself as "Chancellor Material").
- not until now, but still possible
no. 4: The Brexit actually happens.
- debatable, but rather true as of 31 January 2020 (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-britain-leaves-eu-230007150.html).
no. 5: There will be no (relevant) trade deal between the US and China.
- true, but just until now. Remains to be seen.
# Economy
no. 6: The dollar continues to rise, from the current 96.80 to over 100 (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy?mod=watchlist_ticker).
- was partially true (high of 102.99 in late March), but dropped afterwards. I still think the USD will rise far more. But this remains to be seen...
no. 7: The Dow Jones rises from the current $ 28,645 to over 33,000 (but could afterwards drop lower just as quickly).
- not until now, but still possible (Corona wasn't on the table in december 2019).
no. 8: A large European bank (e.g. HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, Santander) becomes insolvent and must be bailed out.
- not until now, but still possible
# Crypto
no. 9: Bitcoin hits $ 30,000 during the year.
- not until now, but still possible, though I doubt it.
no. 10: Bitcoin's dominance continues to increase, from currently 68.2% to over 75%.
- not until now, but still possible
no. 11: Steem rises from 78th place to the top 50 again (https://coinmarketcap.com/).
- Due to the hijacking of Steem, we now have Hive 😀. If I remember correctly Hive was temporarily in the top 50. Currently it's not, but I remain confident.
no. 12: Steem reaches 2 million accounts in total (currently 1.35 million) - very daring, I know ...
- I am not sure about that, but I think there are still less than 2 million accounts.
# Others
no. 13: Croatia will win the European football championship.
- Won't happen.
no. 14: Protests / demonstrations continue to increase in number and violence (Hong Kong, Yellow Vest Movement, etc.)
- True, especially Black Lives Matter.
no. 15: I will continue to accumulate bitcoins and Steems (stacking sats) and become an Orca.
- True (but a forecast I can enforce).
So, in summary out of 15 I already have 2 wrong, 3 correct and 10 are still open.
Have a nice day!
Sind ein paar interessante Thesen dabei, bin gespannt 😁
Rehived :-)
Merci beaucoup!
One question? What is an Orca?
Sure. There is this categorization of Hivers according to the amount of Hive Power they have:
The more HP you have, the more rewards you can distribute via upvotes.
source: https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@indigoocean/re-arcange-q7x1ow
Wow! Thank you! That link helps so much.
Nice forecast..
Let's talk about the ones i believe will happeb
I don't agree with the rise in the dollar. As a maotter of fact the dollar is heading for its doom as a lot of people are dumping the dollar. China has started and other countries will follow . Russia has decided remove vat from importation of precious metals. A lot of things are being done that are pointing to the fall of the dollar.
Just my opinion
Thanks for your comment.
Concerning the dollar I think otherwise. As the USD is the most important reserve currency, most countries need to hold US treasuries to prove their solvency. China is not able to dump their holdings of US treasuries. If China would dump their holdings rapidly, this would trigger a collapse of the Yuan. The effect on the Yuan would be far bigger than on the USD.
Out of all fiat currencies I expect the USD to be the last to fall.
Also interesting on this topic: https://medium.com/tantra-labs/the-triumvirate-of-liquidity-4fe4ab48d120
That is my opinion.. the FEDS are doing a great job at pushing the dollar down and soon people have started shifting base to hold precious metal or crypto.
My gut feeling tells me the BTC dominance will fall instead of rising in 2020.
I suppose that it could be argued that Deutsche Bank is already insolvent and reality just hasn’t caught up. Like Wile E. Coyote having run past the precipice but not yet noticed gravity.
That's possible. Nice allegory.
One could also argue that the Euro has already failed. EU bureaucrats just haven't looked down and haven't realized being past the precipice.
@zuerich This is a nice forecast you got here , lets hope to see what will become of the other 10
😗😗😗
Faith
Very nice and realistic predictions for some of your forecasts for 2020 in politics side...
Moreover, I hope D. Trump do not will win the november votes and campaign. If yes, America will be at it END.
Nice image
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