Hi traders, just a short opinion piece that I'd like to share with you regarding my strategy leading up to the CBOE's Bitcoin ETF decision in August 2018/September 2018.
Think like a trader, not a gambler.
I've re-read both SEC decisions to reject the Wiklevoss's ETF (March 2017 and July 2018) and, as I shared in my last market update, I think that last decision casts some serious doubts on the fate of the CBOE's ETF proposal. If I had to put this in terms of probabilities. I'd say there is a 60% chance that the SEC will reject the proposal.
Some people have argued that CBOE's ETF is an entirely different product to the Winklevoss' and they're right, CBOE's is a much more complete package but the fundamental reason why a Bitcoin ETF was rejected in 2017 and again in 2018 lie in "the threat of market manipulation", which we now have way more evidence of (USDT/Bitfinex wash-trading scandal, fake volumes on Asian exchanges, liquidity coming from money laundering, miners dumping their coins to cover their overhead costs , etc.) than back in 2017 when market manipulation was already cited as the main reason to reject an ETF.
Long story short I am quite pessimistic regarding the fate of CBOE's ETF and I would encourage you to also be very careful and to not fall for the irrational enthusiasm around this event that we are seeing on social media. I was around back in March 2017 when the Winklevoss' ETF was rejected and, although the market recovered pretty quickly afterwards, market conditions were somewhat very different back then.
My point is that taking an anticipatory trade at this point makes no sense and is no different than gambling... which as traders we do NOT partake in. So my advice for you is this: keep your dry powder and wait for the SEC to make up their mind instead of trying to flip a coin on the outcome of this potential black-swan event.
Worst come the worst, SEC reject the ETF and you'll then have plenty of ammo to buy the dip. Best case scenario, SEC approve the ETF, wait out the initial pump, get in on the first dip and enjoy the bull ride.
That way you'll win regardless of the outcome.
Until then,
FØx.
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As expected the weekend saw very slow movements within the crypto currency market, with prices ranging between $8,060 - $8,310. Price consolidated mainly around this area for the majority of last week, unable to breakout of this range and continue its movement. This could be a very good thing, as consolidation within a strong area can often mean price is slowly gain strength and will eventually breakout, which way is breaks out is still hard to speculate.
When we go down to the 4hr chart we can see the clear consolidation and range that price is ranging within. Late last week price broke to the downside but it was only momentarily, with price being rejected at the $7,800 region and quickly shooting back within the $8,060 - $8,310 range. I wont be actively trading BTC until it clearly breaks this range. If price can break to the upside and close above the major psychological level of $8,600 which i believe it will, we could see price take off towards the $10,000 region.
Hey @stevewakeham, while I see nothing wrong with your TA (quality as always)at this stage I'd say the fundamentals will weight much more than the technicals and we might be at a turning point here. Just my opinion though.
Thank you very much, that means alot! Im mainly a forex trader so i don't tend to focus much of my attention on fundamental aspects but after reading yours and others posts its opening my eyes more to the importance they play in crypto. Thank you!
awesome strategy ! =) patience and wait.
Thanks @onepercentbetter!
No matter the outcome, a trader like you should find a way to make profits. ;)
Yeah profit is the plan :)
I do not know or fully understand how CBOE's ETF is going to work. But if it is going to be one of the players in the current crypto market, then it is not possible to avoid market manipulation. CBOE can be crystal clear but they are going to use "market" BTC price anyway and that is where the manipulation exists.
You nailed it, the problem is the underlying spot market which is simply too easy to manipulate and need more liquidity... so in a way the ETF is a bit of a chicken and egg problem.
So the people who manipulate fiat currencies are scared that others also want a piece of the pie? Pretty typical of centralised money and power...
Yeah, I am not so sure banks are scared of Bitcoin, as far as I know, banks could easily buy up most of the circulating supply and completely control the market while still making profit selling Bitcoin to millennials.
Don't be so certain. Buying BTC will raise the price. It also means that banks need to be willing to spend millions of dollars on this virtual nothing of a currency - not the kind of things that banks would do at the tactical or operational level - it would have to be a decision made at the very top.
Also I wish them the best of luck in getting BTC out of the hands of the hodlers - long term believers in the currency who will cling to it whether price rises or falls.
Of course any crypto which becomes over-centralised can be sold by crypto investors in favour of decentralised ones.
Banks will play games with crypto, but it won't be easy and they will not win. The best thing about crypto is that it has significantly levelled the playing field of wealth and power.
hum, that's an interesting view but I am not sure I agree with it. Bitcoin price is easy to manipulate thanks to the future market and the power is very much concentrated in the hands of the biggest holders. I think banks aren't going away anytime soon and i am sure they've already bought in sizeable positions of crypto just in case it catches on and goes mainstream. But it's just my opinion :)
We all just have opinions! 😄
I doubt banks have bought in, but bankers - I'm pretty sure that they have!
Hi @surikowstepanuk! I'll go have a look at your stuff asap, thanks for stopping by :)