We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit @aflfantasy Classic League.
What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.
So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 19 out of 19 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 19, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 15 out of 19 opponents, so you'd get 15/19ths of a win (0.789). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare
the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.
So how did we all fare in Week 18?
BraphB top scored this week, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and @nzl19500 bottomed out again for the lowest score (though it was close between him and @dblstr, with 0 expected wins. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.
The graphic below, shows us how we all went comparatively this week (highlighted in yellow), as well as the overall Luck Ladder (highlighted in green)
So as we can see, @Mmeow still has a comfortable lead, increasing her differential to over 3 more wins than expected (+3.059), with the Minions & Lockout (@o07) the other two with a differential of +2 or higher.
At the other end of the scale, Steemit Huskies (@vicspics) has taken back the title of unluckiest with a differential of -2.422. Playing for Draft Picks (-1.843) had a good win and moved to 4th unluckiest. Nige's Cats (-2.052) slipped to second unluckiest and Adro's Assassins (-1.869) dropped into third. With just one round to go, this is actually a pretty gripping five-way battle as you couldn't rule out Lions4Life (-1.685) taking the crown if he cops a bad beat.
So that's the luck of the draw for Round 18. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...
If you find this even remotely interesting, leave me a comment. If there's anything I could explain better, let me know.
Cheers,
Sparkesy