Bitcoin’s status as an uncorrelated asset makes it extremely difficult to gauge the timing of the market cycle. Its volatility makes it easy for traders to get pump-faked and get liquidated when the market takes an unexpected reversal, so, are we finally in a bull market?
Are We in a Bitcoin Bull Market?
Benjamin Cowen, a trader who goes by intothecryptoverse on Twitter, has released a video where he addresses Bitcoin’s recent bullish price action and provides analysis as to whether we have finally entered a new bull market. Recognizing the start of a bull market is not always easy, especially with Bitcoin.
Cowen begins by saying that hindsight is 20/20, so its important to look at prior bull markets to recognize similarities and market patterns. For his analysis, he relies on the 20-week, 100-week, and 200-week Moving Averages to give us clues, about Bitcoin price movements.
Cowen noted the similarities between the 2015 commencement of the bull market and now, as crossing the 20 weeks moving average for the first time, failed to hold support, both in 2015 and in our current market cycle. The main difference is that this time the 20 week is already above the 100-week, whereas in 2015 it wasn’t.
Cowen also spoke on a significant signal for a Bitcoin bull market being that it holds the 20-week moving average as support. We recently just crossed the 20-week again, for the second time, so only time will tell if we manage to hold it, but if we do, Cowen thinks it’s an extremely pertinent signal.
He personally thinks that we haven’t yet begun a new bull market until we hold the 20-week for a significant period. In 2015, it took a four-month time span to retest the 20-week, and for it to hold, confirming the bull market.
What About the Halving?
As Cowen pointed out, if we have a similar pattern to 2015, it may take four months to retest the 20 week MA. That would put us in May when the halving is estimated to take place. Right before the last halving, we had a short term decline in price, and then it continued to hold the 20 week MA, and it was off to the races.
Cowen speculates that one possibility may be that we see a similar decline in price, going into the halving, mirroring the price action of 2015, before we have a full-fledged run-up in price. If we do see this decline, Cowen thinks we will have to have the 20 week MA hold for several months before it fully confirms the new bull market in earnest.
Cowen’s sentiments would mirror that of well-known Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays, who remains somewhat bearish, and even forecasted a decline in price to $4000 as a possibility recently.
Another popular Bitcoin analyst, Willy Woo, seems to disagree with both Vays and Cowen and believes that the bull market has begun and that it has strong fundamentals driving it.
Woo may be correct at many altcoins which act as leading indicators have been outperforming Bitcoin, signalling that perhaps a new bull market is here, and Altseason is around the corner.
What do you think, are we officially in a bitcoin bull market? Let us know in the comments!
Image via Shutterstock
[Source] Author: Ricardo Martinez
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Word on the street is sell it, buy back later! It could dump!!
9650s careful, looks like another ded cat bounce!!
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STOPTo support your work, I also upvoted your post!
Do not miss the last post from @steemitboard:
Are you serious, someone from Twitter said, so it must be true - give me a break!! lol?
We'll someone from steemit said, & that's me - so I say it's going down!!!! Big dump coming!!!! Just look at the charts, red & droopy af!! Not looking particularly bullish?? Nope!!! Selling!!!! & Buying Back Later @ 8K!! Bitcoin is sick, Bitcoin is ded!!(for now) To tell the truth I don't think it will survive past 2080 with the bitcoin blockchain bloat at the current rates, so I'm hoping for one last halving spike and getting out for good!! Unless Satoshi fixes it, it's a goner!! later BTC sucaks!!!! CYA wouldn't want to bee ya!! Short et & domp et till the end!!!!! It's so slow anyway STEEM way better!! Why everybody likes such old Dinosaur coins? My friend Satoshi invented it, and he even tells me to domp it on occasions too lol!!! Satoshi told me it's going down to 8K, so don't mess around!!!!! He's really worried about his invention too!! Who do u think is the one been buying up all the STEEM, wasn't Justin! lol it was Satoshi to help me out!!! lolz!!!!
No the Bull Market can't even begin until we break $11800!
It's at $9788 right now and damping, damping hard tonight especially!!! There is a huge seller at Bitfinex up at $11800, and it should take many months to break him / her!! The bulls never made it out of the pen! No halving can change that. This will simply be the halving year that couldn't! CYA!! Chalk one halving year outlier up for the BTC history books!!
I wish it would go up, I just put in a sell order for my GBTC up at 50K today in hopefulness, but reality is reality!!
The Bear is real & the Bear is here to stay. The bear never really went any where! Hope u shorting rover, the bears about to come over, & we all fall down!!! lol
$9749!
$9731, done!! I will keep the updates coming in! GN!
Moar Blood!!!’nn the water!
$9769 Now!! lol Damping!!!!! Fo sho!!!!!
Correction 9757!!! Geeze dropping like a rock tonight boss!!