We are literally hours away from the next airdrops for the Chaos Legion pack sale. Phase 2 of the general sale is coming to close and Uriel The Purifier and Baakjira will be airdropped to players shortly after. Two beefy legendary tanks will be up for grabs but what if you don't get one? I will dive into my thoughts and data which can help you decide when to move.
The cards are both very powerful and I believe they will find use in many leagues so demand shouldn't be low. Supply is my main metric for price in this article. We were informed during the last Town Hall that the drop rate of 1/300 packs was not going to change for these airdrops. With only 2,154,776 packs sold at the time of writing, this means that each card is going to have an airdrop quantity of 7,183. To put this into prospective, Dr. Blight had an airdrop quantity (total minted in this case) of 20,465. This means the initial supply of Uriel and Baakjira is 35% of Dr. Blights.
Now unlike Dr. Blight, Uriel and Baakjira will be available to pull when opening packs. This means that the total supply will end up surpassing Dr. Blight eventually...but when? At this point only 1,541,000 packs have been opened. Using Splintercards.com Printing and Distribution Data I can see all the printed copies of the 16 legendries currently available in packs. They average to about 7,680 each or 122,800 total printed legendries. Packs/legendries gives us about a 7.9% pull rate of a legendary.
So the last part of the equation is how many total legendries will exist and based on that 7.9% pull rate it will be about 1,185,000. Where it gets interesting is the airdrops are only available in the packs after the drop has been released. So any packs opened before the airdrop release skews the printed quantity of each legendary. The more packs that are opened before the final pack sells, the higher the skew. For these two air drops I will run the math assuming that all packs will be held till the final sale to show the absolute lowest printing quantity possible for Baakjira and Uriel.
With that assumption we will say the remaining 12,845,224 packs will have an even distribution of the 29 total legendries (16 original + 13 airdrops) with with 7.9% drop rate. This gives us about 34,992 each. Remember that this number is the LOWEST possible in pack pulls for Uriel and Baakjira and the HIGHEST possible in pack pulls for airdrop 14 because of our assumption of all packs held. This means that Uriel and Baakjira will have AT LEAST 40K printed copies by the time the set is fully opened.
IN CONCLUSION AND MY PLAN
The airdrop quantity will be 35% of Dr. Blight, BUT is actually 93% of the supply of every other legendary printed in the set. By the time all the packs are opened, the total supply of Uriel and Baakjira will be doubled that of Dr. Blight and the difference between the first 16 printed legendries will be miniscule. The legendary cards currently rank from $5.90 to $31 so I would not value these cards outside of that range. I purchased 16 packs so if I am lucky enough to be dropped a card I will be looking to see how the market reacts. I will sell either of these cards if the price is above $31 because the supply is on par with 16 legendries we already have. The PROMO tag and chaos legion SPS tournaments are the only two reasons I can see it selling high early but I bank on it stabilizing later among all the other legendries (not financial advise).
Let me know what you think in the comments. Do you agree with the approach, do you see things different, did I miss something? Steel sharpens steel so your input is much appreciated.
Much Love,
RoguePatton
Wow great write up. I hope we both pull one. Good Luck.
Thank you! I ended up pulling one Uriel but held on to it at that $17 price range. What about you?
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