In this paper, I aim to set out the near certainty that we are far from alone in the universe.
Please bear with me as I try to bring you hard facts. Where certain “facts” are not yet “proven”, they are at least solid theories supported by substantial evidence and respected by most scientists.
Exoplanets - planets not in our solar system (i.e. circling other suns)
Our star, the sun, has nine planets. The question for astronomers has long been whether other stars in the universe also have planets, known as “exoplanets”. Whilst some evidence of this is 100 years old, it wasn’t scientifically proven until 2012. Many more discoveries of exoplanets followed in quick succession.
Thousands of exoplanets have now been found.
It now seems likely that almost all stars have planets circling around them.
This conclusion was first reached in 2013 after evidence of planets was observed in respect of many of the stars close enough to be observed.
Here is a quote from: https://www.space.com/24894-exoplanets-habitable-zone-red-dwarfs.html published in 2014.
- “The new finds imply that virtually all red dwarfs throughout the Milky Way have planets, and at least 25 percent of these stars in the sun's own neighbourhood host habitable-zone "super-Earths," researchers said”
Since 2013 the evidence has grown stronger as more planets have been found. As of April 2019 at least 4,000 exoplanets have been discovered. There are nearly 3,000 more possible candidates.
NASA estimates that since the exoplanet's first discovery, the number of known exoplanets has doubled every 27 months since.
It takes many years to prove the existence of an exoplanet. Scientists have to observe the planet passing around the star. Some of the orbits could be decades-long making detection a slow process. For that reason it could take decades before we have a good estimate as to how many planets circle each star.
At least 656 of the observed stars have more than one planet. Due to today’s limits in telescope technology it is hard to see small earth-sized planets. It is possible that many of the observed stars have multiple planets which we can’t yet observe. Our star has 9 planets. It seems probable that we have only observed the easiest to spot. Probably each star has far more planets than the one or two detected so far.
Are other planets habitable?
So far we have observed some 408 earth-sized planets which are in the “habitable-zone”, meaning that they receive a similar amount of radiation from their sun as we receive on earth. Conditions would be capable of being similar to the planet earth. We don’t yet know if those planets could actually support life, as it would depend on the chemical makeup.
There are more stars in the observable universe than there are grains of sand on on planet earth.
Our Galaxy has an estimated 250 billion stars. Many galaxies have over a trillion stars. In October 2016, an article in Science (based on deep-field images from the Hubble Space Telescope) suggested that there are about 2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe, or about 10 times more galaxies than previously suggested. Putting the two numbers together (250 bln X 200 trillion) suggests there could be 50’000’000’000’000’000’000’000’000 stars in the observable universe. That’s 5 X 10^24 stars. An estimate of the number of grains of sand is ten thousand times lower at 7 X 10^20.
The above numbers are, of course, estimates and the calculations may be out by a factor of 10, or 100 or even 1000s. However the fact remains that we are talking very large numbers of stars. Each star most likely has several planets.
The elements essential for life exist everywhere in space
The elements which were present to allow the formation of life on earth are abundant elements. They exist everywhere in the universe. We don’t know the exact mix, but we know for a fact that the most abundant element is Hydrogen, found in virtually all life forms.
Carbon (C), oxygen (O), hydrogen (H) and nitrogen (N) – make up about 96% of the human body. These elements are known to be among the 7 most common elements in the universe. Countless planets in the habitable zone of stars will have the same elements.
What created life on earth? Was it a unique event?
I won’t elaborate on the devine creation theory, other than to say that if God created life on earth, he probably would not have stopped there. If you are going to grow flowers in your garden, would you stop at ONE seed?
Scientists generally accept that life was created in the brewing mix of elements that swirled in the mud and oceans. Water, methane, ammonia and hydrogen excited by lightening formed into amino acids. As fast as life was created, other elements, like ultra-violet radiation from the sun or the motions of the water would have destroyed it. The chance of survival of any life randomly created would have been practically zero. Fragile microscopic organisms would have been torn apart by the wind rain, ice and chemicals as fast as they came into existence.
The creation of life on earth was thus almost certainly not a single random event. It was created and destroyed trillions of times. Earth was a violent place full of fire and volcanoes, storms and earthquakes. The chance of survival was one in a trillion. Nevertheless trillions of new life forms were created in the rich chemical brew, some of which survived and evolved.
The same thing happened, is happening, and will happen on the trillions of planets which have similar conditions. This is only theory, but it is as logical as saying that if you mix blue and yellow paint in one tin, to get green, the same thing is likely to happen every time you do it.
Is intelligent life rare?
Intelligent life is a common feature of our planet earth. Thousands of creatures and other life-forms on planet earth have some level of intelligence. A reasonable deduction is that intelligence is a possible outcome from the creation of life. Give the prevalence of intelligent creatures, I would argue it is a likely outcome. It just takes a few billion years to evolve.
On any planet where life is created, intelligent life will eventually start to exist. It is a virtual certainty sooner or later. The statistics on planet earth suggest that more than 10% of life on earth has some kind of intelligence.
Given the trillions of galaxies, each containing hundreds of billions and even trillions of stars, most of which are likely to have planets in the habitable zone, life of every kind will be very abundant.
As intelligent life is the norm, that life on distant planets will include intelligent life of all kinds. It is an inevitable conclusion of the facts as we know them.
Given the trillions upon trillions of planets probably with life, there will be both higher and lower intelligent life forms than the human race.
The chance that we are the most intelligent form of life is close to nil. That would be like winning the national lottery hundreds of times in a row.
How long before we have proof of intelligent alien life?
It won’t be long before we receive concrete evidence of intelligent life, in the form of a radio signal or fly-by space ship launched tens of thousands, (or millions), of years ago from some distant planet. There are so many planets out there, many will have evolved long before mankind, and many will have chosen to blast a message to distant galaxies to say “We are here”.
Will we ever meet aliens?
It seems unlikely. At least it is unlikely we will see aliens made of flesh and blood. No flesh and blood creature could ever reach earth alive. At least not with science as we understand it. The nearest star is 4.2 light years away. Even at the fastest theoretical propulsion speeds it would take thousands of years to get here. That would be 1000s of human generations, all the way back to before Christ or the pharaohs were born.
So far, the fastest speed obtained by a rocket launched from earth is 56,000 km/h. That was Deep Space 1. It would take over 81,000 years to traverse the 4.24 light years between Earth and the nearest known exoplanet, Proxima Centauri. To put that time-scale into perspective, that would be over 2,700 human generations. If there is life on that planet, it is very unlikely they will be visiting us.
It is possible that a digital life form could reach us. Computers with artificial intelligence could slumber for tens of thousands of years while they journey through space. If we ever encounter aliens on planet earth, they are likely to be machine based. Make sure you know where the “Off” switch is on the remote control.
What are the chances that other intelligent alien life is alive now?
It all depends on what we mean by “now”? If the radio signal from a star a billion light years away reaches us tomorrow, those aliens will seem very much alive and in the present. Yet the signal was sent a billion years ago, and the alien race which sent it is very likely long since extinct. There are very few stars which are close enough for us to be confident that the senders are still alive by the time we receive their signal.
Radio signal from Alpha Centauri
If a radio signal was sent us we from the nearest star, Alpha-Centauri, it would only take 4.2 years to reach us. In that case we could be fairly sure the senders are still living. However, given the vastness of time, the probability of us getting a signal from Alpha-Centrai is close to zero. Life there either existed billions of years before ours, or it has not yet come into existence. It could be another billion years before they are evolved enough to radio us. We don’t know.
Is anybody out there?
Somewhere out there, in the vastness of space, some alien being is gazing at the stars, maybe looking at our very own Milky-Way and asking himself the question “Is anybody out there?”
We are not alone.
Interesting read. Love the topic. Always intriguing.
Posted using Partiko Android
I'm also a stern believer that there are other life out there. Honestly, just thinking that we are the only intelligent life out there is just sheer arrogance. Our universe is vast and very old and if Earth manages to sustain life surely other planets can do so.
Using numbers proposed by scientists, (as referenced in the Wikipedia article on the Drake Equation), suggest that the Milky Way galaxy currently contains 15'600'000 currently active intelligent life forms capable of communicating to us.
Multiply that by the 200 trillion galaxies, and we reach a figure of 31'200'000'000'000'000'000 forms of intelligent life currently in existence.
I don't even know how to count that, lmao! Yet despite that staggering number there are still people that refuses to believe that we are not alone.
My own theory is: ...until Mam is capable enough to have cosmic awareness (along with our technology) aliens will still be unreachable. When we begin to realize that we are not just a citizen of this planet, but part of the vastness of lifeforms and materials in the universe and immediate dimensions, that will be the time that we could say hello to them.
An ant living in a rainforest doesnt dream of giants humans living in New York City since they are not ready to comprehend it.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Good point. Mankind is not ready yet for the discovery. If we can discover alien intelligence, then it disrupts the beliefs of most of mankind.
How hard was it to accept the "Round" Earth discovery, even after Pythagoras proved it? 2000 years later, people were still being burned at the stake for believing the earth was not flat.
Thanks for your appreciation. Let us keep on looking up the sky and dream.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Good article, from a religious and biblical point of view, mankind was created by beings that did not originate from Earth...
Joh_18:36 Yeshua answered: My kingdom is not of this world. If my kingdom were of this world, my servants would certainly strive that I should not be delivered to the Jews: but now my kingdom is not from hence.
https://steemit.com/aliens/@prime-cleric/aliens-are-here
There are a number of books written which provide ample "evidence" that life was introduced to earth by aliens, or by God. Take your pick. ("We are not the first").
Very good point. There is no way there AREN'T aliens considering how many different planets exist
Taking all of this aspects in consideration I started to think differently that I thought before.
Posted using Partiko Android
Thought undoubtedly interesting, but I hope we stop devouring the earth and kill each other, to then be able to undertake great spatial proposals.
Agree, we must make every effort to stop destroying what we have,
Interesting article! Thanks for sharing!
Well I always fall back to Drakes equation...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation
I love to play with the numbers for the variables of that equation.
One thing though, simply the harsh fact of our known physics and here especially, the ultimate speed limit for information and matter, makes me somewhat skeptic if we in our lifetimes will see proof of alien life.
Cheers!
I would love to try and find MY solution to the Drake equation. According to the Wikipedia article you linked:
Repeat: "Milky Way". Our galaxy is called the Milky Way. Current estimates are that there are 200 trillion galaxies in the observable universe.
The skeptics seem to have calculated the answer to the Drake equation as near zero. I.E. they argue that there is no other life except that found on earth. They assume that there are almost no earth-like planets, that the creation of life was a single unique event - a truly freak accident, and that if intelligent life ever existed, it would not have lasted more than 304 years (so the chances of their intelligent period coinciding with ours is very low).
On the other hand, using numbers proposed by scientists, (as referenced in the Wikipedia article), estimates that the Milky Way galaxy currently contains 15'600'000 currently active intelligent life forms capable of communicating to us.
Multiply that by the 200 trillion galaxies, and we reach a figure of 31'200'000'000'000'000'000 forms of intelligent life currently in existence.
I doubt that we will know the correct answer very soon, but as each year of astronomical research passes. the answer to the Drake equation goes higher.
In the event that we were to detect an intelligent radio signal from any region of space, it would blow the maths out of the water. The low-end estimate of "zero", would have to move - alot.
I think we will detect that signal soon. The SETI project is barely a few years old compared to the history of man. Their first discovery cannot be that far away.
Thank u somemuch for this interesting news
Congratulations @swissclive!
Your post was mentioned in the Steem Hit Parade in the following category:
Nice story. Mostly fictional.
Posted using Partiko Android
I had an astronomy professor tell me that there are more stars in the universe than grains of sand on the earth... How could there only be just us. Pretty self-righteous and ignorant. Nicley put article!
Your astronomy professor was right. There could be 10’000 times more stars than grains of sand on little earth.
Congratulations @swissclive! You have completed the following achievement on the Steem blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :
You can view your badges on your Steem Board and compare to others on the Steem Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPVote for @Steemitboard as a witness to get one more award and increased upvotes!