With bitcoin and virtually all altcoin assets soaring, the blockchain has become an incredibly easy market to “predict.” Print out a list of available cryptocurrency assets, then simply throw a dart at it. Whatever altcoin the dart lands on would very likely have a high-probability success rate.
There’s nothing wrong with calling individual names in a robust bull market – I do it all the time in my profession. But the cryptocurrency markets are a little different. Currently, the amount of bullishness towards the blockchain is unprecedented. Like I said, random guesses will likely win big.
Understanding this dynamic, several charlatans have voiced their forecasts knowing full well that the blockchain -uneducated masses will likely consider them as “God’s gift to the cryptocurrency markets.” But these folks are merely conflating the extreme bullishness in the blockchain for a technical analyst’s supposed accuracy.
Mark my words – a day will come when a bearish cycle hits. That’s the inevitable nature of all free markets. But knowing when this cycle will occur is the true magic!
You see, anyone can call an altcoin today and say that it’s going to move higher – and they’ll probably be right. Whether the altcoin is cardano, stellar lumens, or freakin’ dogecoin, given enough time in this bull market, they’ll be profit against today’s prices.
But when will cardano, stellar, or dogecoin crash? That’s the real scoop. Don’t tell me to buy in bull market – that stuff’s child play. Tell me when to sell in a bull market, and if you’re correct, I will tip my hat off to you.
I want to share this warning to my Steemit followers because there’s a great risk in believing an analyst’s word is golden. It’s not. But if you keep following the ideas unchecked without due diligence, you could get burned badly.
Kinda makes me wonder about all of the "fish oil" products they are selling people these day... snake oil 2.0?
LOL not to sound ironic BUUUUUT I did just do a price analysis on Bitcoin, my usual BTC Price Forecast, and take it or leave it- I do it more for the entertainment value.
i believe cryptocurrencies have come to stay
A good PSA to the crypto community. Understanding bias is important for understanding any analysis, whether its investing, news, products, or even your health!
I'd love to see more elaboration on how you can see bear markets coming, or identify them when they start.
That sounds like a great idea for a future post -- I'll try to cook up something for you all :)
Step 1) Look for hyperbolic growth
Step 2) Refer to Step 1)
100% agree. Lots of success bias out there. Will be interesting to see the Emperors without clothes...
Yes, trading is gravitational.
That said, I keep feeling a pull towards Chinese crypto.
I bought a few shares of CNY; and couldn't find any write-ups on it; so, I 'foolishly' sold it.
Well, the 'yen' to own these shares wouldn't subside, so I "listened to my inner Voice" and repurchased the shares. Granted, it's showing the least promise of the few coins I bought; but, made a commitment to stay with the buys for the quarter, then reassess.
Lastly, today I came across a 'new-to-me' crypto...YOYOW. It's a version of Steemit, primarily for the Chinese community. Today, it's a 'whopping' ~.50 per share, in comparison to a few months ago, when it traded at ~.06. I'm tempted to buy a few of these shares as the platform sounds very promising, despite 'regulations'.
Thanks for this post. It's much needed, as there is a lot of hype flowing around. It's a case of do your own research. Learn what to look for.
Peace.