Amidst this weekend's "maximum FUD" period, I figured I'd post a few thoughts about the upcoming August 1st "deadline" - at which point, the "Bitcoin Civil War" is scheduled to come to a head. Not that we haven't had MANY maximum FUD times already, of course - as during the past year alone, we experienced five; i.e., the Bitfinex hack, the two Chinese exchange crackdowns, the Bitcoin Unlimited scare, and the Bitmain UAHF announcement. In other words, six in the past eleven months - with the final five occurring since year-end, despite the Bitcoin price STILL being up more than 100% during this period.
However, this one in particularly appears the most urgent; in that seemingly, the Bitcoin scaling debate will be, if not resolved (favorably or unfavorably), advanced to a point that either significant progress will be made in the very near-term, or a significant setback. Frankly, no one has any idea what will truly occur - as even most of the smartest people in the room are not 100% sure. Throw in the "game theory" aspects of this high stacks game of crypto-chicken; with a pinch of potential ulterior motives; and "analysis" becomes that much more difficult. Especially when so many related, but decidedly different, terms like soft fork, hard fork, and chain split are involved.
Two weeks ago, I penned A CALL TO ALL BITCOINERS - TAKE ACTION, NOW, TO PREVENT ONE CHINESE CON-MAN FROM DESTROYING HUMANITIES' ONLY MONETARY HOPE! (https://steemit.com/andyhoffman/@andyhoffman/andy-hoffman-7-02-17-a-call-to-all-bitcoiners-take-action-now-to-prevent-one-chinese-con-man-from-destroying-humanities-only) to inform everyone with the ability to DO something to contribute to the cause. Some have more "pull" than others, but most people - even if simply "spreading the word" of the UASF - have the ability to do something.
Being a non-tech person, I don't fully understand the ramifications of each possible outcome. However, what I do understand is that, make no mistake, BITMAIN is the principal enemy. Frankly, all other parties involved, in my very strong view, are mere pawns in the game - such as Barry Silbert and the other NYA signatories. That said, just because they signed the NYA doesn't mean they'll adhere to it - particularly if they believe Bitmain's intentions are not as honorable, or genuine, as they were purported at the time of signing. I mean, these are big companies, with thousands of clients. Trust me, if SegWit 2x ends in disaster, the Coinbases of the world will be in BIG, BIG financial and legal trouble.
Why Bitmain is so against SegWit is open to debate - be it ASIC Boost, "higher fees," control, or otherwise. However, what I do know is that any and all of these motives is against the best interest of Bitcoin as a whole. Not to mention, a higher Bitcoin price. Thankfully, for all of Bitmain's huffing and puffing, scamming and misleading, they too desire a higher Bitcoin price. Thus, the odds of them truly desiring a Bitcoin split are slim to none. Sure, the Chinese government could in fact be their "partner" or "puppet master." However, even the Chinese government is unlikely to desire Bitcoin's destruction, for a variety of reasons, such as...
- They understand Bitcoin more than perhaps any other government. And thus, that like gold, it could SAVE them when their hideous debt/Yuan Ponzi inevitably collapses.
- They might still fail if they attack Bitcoin - perhaps, spectacularly so - to the point that it dramatically strengthens it.
- And finally, even if they did succeed in destroying Bitcoin, another crypto, like Litecoin for example, would just take its place.
And what I also know - from having spent many months listening to said "smartest people in the room" - is that Bitmain is neither large enough, powerful enough, or influential enough to get its way, so long as the Bitcoin community as a whole imposes its cumulative will. This is the beauty of Bitcoin - at least in theory. Which is exactly why the two weeks leading up to August 1st, and roughly the two weeks afterward - will likely represent "the most important month in monetary history."
Given that I have, unquestionably so, been one of the world's leading advocates of sound money, I am particularly attuned to this topic. The past six years, I have been writing of it from my free blog at milesfranklin.com - as I am the Marketing Director of Miles Franklin, one of the nation's oldest, most trusted bullion dealers. However, I have been a public figure in the Precious Metal community for the past 15 years; and in the past two, in the Bitcoin community, given that I believe as strongly in it as I do Precious Metals. In fact, I believe the two asset classes will together serve as the "twin destroyers of the fiat regime," per an article of that title I wrote in May 2016 (https://www.milesfranklin.com/precious-metals-and-bitcoin-twin-destroyers-of-the-fiat-regime/).
However, aside from "spreading the word" of the fraud of fiat money - and Precious Metal manipulation - there's not much else I have had the ability to "do" to move the cause forward. Which is why these next few weeks are so important; as not only will "success" ensure our Bitcoin investment to be profitable - potentially, wildly so; but it likely represents humanity's best chance to save itself from oppressive governments and Central banks, which continue to destroy the "99%" for the sold benefit of the "1%."
Thus, this article is my "call to arms" for everyone that can, to DO something about spreading the word about the UASF. The time for ACTION is now - with the rewards, for everyone, tantalizingly close if we can just get through this, the "most important month in monetary history."
Call to arms sounds quite dramatic.
But in fact there is not much, a single participant can do right now.
everybody sits and waits.
crypto-staredown.
I am not sure what is the best thing to do right now?
But what i see so far, every time disaster strikes bitcoin, it comes back stronger.
Every test just adds prove, to how strong this really is.
Many single participants doing something has a very large effect - just a matter of involvement and not feeling powerless.
Well for sure i am all in.
I will keep promoting Crypto.
I think China (central govt. or PBOC) does not want to destroy bitcoin but would like to control and steer it to possibly take it over and make it their cryptocurrency. Just a thought. I agree with Andy that this next month is probably the most crucial for the future of bitcoin. Support BIP148.
I just did my part a few minutes ago. Exchanged some fiat for Bitcoin. 😜
Interesting though how the altcoins suffer more than bitcoin. I doubt the price fall has anything to do with Aug 1st. It was just a huge ordinary hype bubble. The impact of Aug 1st is an independent question and will have positive or negative impact in addition. No doubt it is an important month.
Cautiously, I tend to agree. With all the press increasingly hyping an "imminent economic crash" and with the entire world's combined economies in the crosshairs this time, people sought ways of moving their assets out of harm's way. Gold & silver, although the most reliable store of value (IMO) are harder to transfer and easier to monitor by governments desperately clinging to control and tax all assets. Suddenly, all the alt-coins, especially the more "affordable" ones, became a manic-bubble. When the early "investors" saw their chance to cash out, the bubble (as it always does) deflates. This is a historic cyclical occurrence, and "free market" economics at it's core: fear vs greed. It has always been thus as far back in recorded times as tulips.
No matter what happens to bitcoin with BIP148, the technology is a genie out-of-the-bottle at this point. Cryptos will survive. The underlying question is: Will central authoritarian governments with their means of affording the fastest/smartest/latest technological tools, be able to wrest away the anonymous advantage of the cryptos from a public seeking to preserve their asset value from theft?