Bitcoin won against BCH and Ethereum won against Ethereum Classic. If those are any indication, Steem will likely win against Hive. Which is a bit of a pity, IMO. Almost one year after your post, it certainly looks that way: the steem price is almost double that of Hive and it still feels like herding cats. We are pretty abysmal at marketing and promotion. This chain is a well designed system but good products don't sell themselves or else there will be no need for salespeople ...
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In this bull market where Hive is mostly unnoticed it is hard to have a positive outlook on things, for example Ethereum is a bloated non functioning shitcoin with 500billion valuation, cardano is not even live, there is nothing on and it's #4 right now, don't even get me started on Doge. Right now Hive is around 250th place on coinmarketcap, everything works here and there are real users here and nothing happens. We are slowly moving into obscurity. Steem is valued more than Hive, there is no logic in these markets. That always leads me to think that the crash is near.
I agree that there will be another crash before the real weaving of blockchain functionalities into the larger context of business and society will start to happen. Today we (the "blockchainers") still inspire distrust and incomprehension in traditional businesses. Even areas where it would make sense to introduce a blockchain-based system there's a lot of hesitation