Hi all! This is the second lesson of my online education series in antifragility, an important concept in living a more fulfilling life, why Bitcoin works, generating income without risk of ruin, why evolution works, how to improve the efficiency and rigor of scientific research, and much much more. Think of antifragility as the mathematical backbone of stoic philosophy.
Nassim Taleb's works are required readings: http://fooledbyrandomness.com/
Eventually, we might get to some lessons in math, statistics, history, writings of Karl Popper and Seneca, meditation, zen riddles, cold showers, powerlifting, GMOs, options trading, scientific method, religion vs. science, what is a pseudo-intellectual, evolution, education reform, and more.
Comment below which topic you would like to hear about next!
What is Black Swan Theory?
Black swan theory was developed by Nassim Taleb to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
- The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Why Call it "Black Swan"?
In 16th century Europe, there was a saying in Europe under the assumption that black swans did not exist, similar to the phrase "when pigs fly". It was used to state that something was impossible. However, when actual black swans were discovered in Australia, the whole statement was refuted. Despite all the thousands of white swans in existance, all it took was a single black swan to demonstrate that not all swans are white. This demonstrates the problem with inductive reasoning and the value of deductive falsification.
Many philosophers over the years have criticized inductive reasoning as a method for obtaining knowledge. It can lead to false assumptions and generalizations. C. D. Broad has said "induction is the glory of science and the scandal of philosophy". We will explore the relationship between the scientific method and inductive reasoning in a future post.
That's it for this lesson, thanks for reading!
If you enjoyed this post, please follow me at @limitless
Previous lessons:
Lesson #1: Importance of Decentralizaton: https://steemit.com/antifragile/@limitless/bitesized-lessons-in-antifragility-1-importance-of-decentralization
Great to see this posted, @limitless! I actually wanted to write about Taleb's Black Swan as well as I started reading the book. :) I hope you will get many followers on this series.
Awesome, great to have you follow along!
Great post! This simply defines black swan theory to those people who have not heard of it. One suggestion I do have is to make your posts longer and to elaborate on more things with images. Besides that this is the start of a great new series.
~ Np
Well, this is meant to be "bitesized". :P
So I'm keeping each post of this series around 300 words or under.
I have another series that is in the works right now using game theory, bayesian probability, and analysis of black swan risks to determine the true expected danger and benefit levels of Trump or Clinton getting elected. Each part will be probably 1000-2000 words, and that will be at least a 3 part series.
Note that Taleb actually goes deeper than just the problem of induction with black swan, but I will save that for a future lesson.
Next lesson please! followed
Thanks!
In the faith of the Seven, the Old Gods the New Gods and Drowned gods:
I swear I read everything and yet, didn't understand a single thing.
Table of contents
Lesson #1: Importance of Decentralizaton: https://steemit.com/antifragile/@limitless/bitesized-lessons-in-antifragility-1-importance-of-decentralization
Lesson #2: What is a Black Swan?: https://steemit.com/antifragile/@limitless/bitesized-lessons-in-antifragility-2-what-is-a-black-swan
Lesson #3: What is Antifragility?: https://steemit.com/antifragile/@limitless/bitesized-lessons-in-antifragility-3-what-is-antifragility-math-proves-that-you-should-lift-heavy-weights-my-transformation