Yep. The CME part isn't too rare, but often they are off to the side of the Sun, so the cloud doesn't impact Earth. Then other times, the cloud doesn't have the right stuff in it to cause much impact to the Earth's magnetic field. But, then there are the rare times when everything happens just right, and the Northern Lights can be seen as far South as Arizona (in the USA, of course... check your local listings).
If NOAA's prediction is correct, then you may see them in Pennsylvania, Ohio, etc... Which are northern states, sure, but rarely get to see the auroras.
I am in one of the lucky states you listed and am excited going to see it!! Thank you for your insight on this.