https://bittubers.com/playlist/1006/4 For by unlike zone and I'm reading the war on normal people by Andrew Yang is in the labor market simply going to adjust to the new reality and people will move on two other jobs in college I learned about the efficient capital market hypothesis stock market prices reflect all available information and attempts to beat the market are going to be ineffective overtime now almost every investment professional believes that this is grossly incorrect where these incomplete given the financial crash the rise of behavioral economics the success of certain hedge funds and the fact that rating firms are investing millions in having a faster pipe to the exchange's two fronts and other fronts run other traders the labor market is assumed to be similarly high functioning two that is if someone gets fired or their job gets automated will find a new job that's the right fits a lot of our public policy is built around this is too is fundamentally incorrect thinking or highly qualified and talented people in robust marketplace is the labor market is pretty seamless if you're a great silicon valley programmer you can practically just cross the street and it's another high paying jobs and for you'll probably also have a couple of nice headhunters helping you in order to collect the finder's fee you come with perhaps 12 to 15% of your annual salary a less qualified and talented you are and the less prosperous your local economy the dicier things that's if you are a factory worker or salesperson in a stored it just closed chances are the other factories or stores nearby are a growing and don't have job openings once you leave the market is a specially rough people would have been unemployed for awhile lose confidence and scales studies have shown that employers think you're a major risk if you haven't been employed for six months after the consent and quickly women who take a break to raise children often have a hard time wrapping back up even if their highly educated the employment's markets is loaded with friction we all know that in real life yet so much of our policy assumes a dream world where people are infinitely mobile across state lines know what jobs are there have the savings to Rita don't make wise decisions about school are endlessly resilience and encounter understanding employers or rooting for them and can see their merits are hired hundreds of people over the years for the normal person and virtually none of this is true for OK again by that old jobs will disappear but won't there be a new jobs we can't predict that will take their place for every innovation will bring with it new opportunities and some will be difficult to predict self driving cars and trucks will bring with them a need for improved infrastructure and thus perhaps some construction jobs the demise of retail could make drone pilots more of unneeded overtime the proliferation of data is already making data scientists a hot new job category the problem is that the new jobs are almost certain to be in different places that existing ones and will be less numerous than the ones that disappear they will generally require higher levels to fifth of education in the displaced worker its have and will be very unlikely for a displaced worker to move identify the needed gain skills and fill the new role will get retail some might say it's OK that the malls and main streets are closing because you'll still need warehouse workers and truck drivers to deliver the goods plus where desires for all of the the commerce and storefronts that all of the new rules are likely to be located far from the mall and other population centers over time the warehouse workers will be replaced by a handful of technicians who supervise and operate warehouse row at robust and the delivery drivers will be replaced by a handful of logistics specialists we can celebrate the 200 and new robot supervisors in suburban California and the 100 new lunches takes specialists in Memphis and the 50 new web designers in Seattle and say hey we didn't know we'd need these 350 college educated people are a meanwhile there will be 50,000 unemployed retail employees will be looking for the sleeve for opportunity's in their shrinking communities when newspapers began shifting from paper base to online publishing people complained that retraining and analog dollars for digital nickels and dimes is was going to happen with workers were going to trade 100 high school graduates for five or 10 college graduates someplace else the test is not whether the new jobs we haven't predicted that that appear of course there will be the real test is whether the millions of new jobs for Madelin's people with low skills and levels of education near the places they currently reside or sustain to a growth opportunity for the unskilled is being a Home Health Care in aid which isn't a good fit for most of the former truck drivers will not be excited to bathe Granma is also a terrible job on average Home Care aides worked 34 hours a week and make an average of $22,600 a year one in four live in households below the Federal poverty line and many don't have Health Care themselves the deal has a high rate of turnover some estimates put it as high as 60% per year of the 10 occupations that hadn't to most new jobs in the past several years personal care in AIDS earned less than all except for fast food workers some would call it a dead and a job said Dina Beebe a spokeswoman for the pier a professional healthcare institutes these are the highest these are the very hard jobs there very physically taxing and they have one of the highest injury rates of any occupation and they're very emotionally taxing in sentiment work is isolating work if Home Healthcare ad is our answer to the future of jobs we're in deep trouble the government should provide education and retraining programs to help transition workers to new jobs in theory this sounds great and makes four wonderful sound bites in reality studies of shown that retraining programs as currently practiced 10 to show few if any benefits the biggest recent efforts revolved around manufacturing workers over the past 15 years one study of the trade adjustment assistance see a program a Federal program for displaced manufacturing workers found that participants in the program garnered less income over a four year time period than the control group with older workers showing particularly little benefits independent analysis by mathematic a policy and research compared see a recent visit recipients to workers who got traditional unemployment assistance and found that Seay and recipients had lower earnings than people who received regular unemployment assistance and only 37% of those who were trained for specific jobs were actually working in that profession for the similar evaluation of Michigan's no worker lot behind program on that 1/3 workers did not find any work after participation in the program that vastly lower than the 40% unemployment rate has been a factory workers experienced generally in on other study one lane of Chrysler worker mail ship Stephen commented to an interviewer after completing a $4200 course at a private training center paid for by the government's I still haven't got a job in my skill a year after finishing the coursed and government funding retraining is just a way for these little cheap schools to make money everybody sustaining the money Stephen 51 received a certificate in computer skills and business math after 16 weeks at public expense of other workers describe new and for profit schools of dubious quality offering retraining targeted to lay off workers with little benefits the sociologist who interviewed stuff and describes him and his fellow of laid off workers as having gone through the fiction of learning so that they could put it on their resumes and the state could write them off as retrains this is when one is able to access educational benefits they know what their left behind program had a wait list of tens of thousands in Michigan in 2010 and stopped taking new applicants shortly thereafter a study of several dozen laid off workers in Michigan could only find one who was taking classes that were paid for through a government's retraining program the others had been denied retraining benefits because too much time had passed the courses they were trying to take were inane other states the subject matter wasn't supported by the program or there were pauses between classes in the program require retraining to be continuous others said they were unable to determine what benefits were available to them ever told to leave their name on a list only to never hear back successfully betrayed large numbers of displaced workers will require our role which have number of assumptions to prove true if the the government needs to be able to identify displaced workers over a range of industries and have both the resources to pay for mass retraining and the flexibility to accommodate individual situations each person needs to have the capacity and will be retrained in an endowment field the government needs to be an effective disseminator of information to thousands of individuals in real time the worker needs to actually learn new marketable skills from the course or school in question last there needs to be a new employers in the region that want to hire large numbers of newly trained middle aged workers as opposed to say younger workers all the above would hold true for some proportion of the displaced but not for most of them the reality is more often displaced workers spending government funds or racking up debts at the university of phoenix or another for profit institution in desperate bids to stay relevant and marketable we should 100% invested successful retraining of employees but we should also know that were historically very bad that it's even in situations where we know displacement is happening is backing this to be affective over a large population overall range of industries is more wishful thinking their policy recommendation that judge are any vanishing wouldn't be showing up in the unemployment rates not necessarily because the unemployment rate doesn't measure what you likely think it measures as of September 2017 the unemployment rate is only 4.2% close to the lowest rate since the 2008 economic crisis was some straits the economist are talking about the very optimistic case of full employment which is when an economy has as many jobs for people in the workforce as want them the problem is that the unemployment rate is defined as how many people in the labor force are looking for a job but cannot find one that is not consider people who drop out of the workforce for any reason including disability or simply giving up trying to find a job that you get discourage and stop looking for any reason you no longer are considered unemployed the unemployment rate also doesn't take into account people who are under underemployed that is if a college graduate takes a job is a Mary star or other bowl that doesn't require a degree conservative economist nick ever stopped says the unemployment rate no longer serves as a reliable predictor of the number spore proportions of people who are not working or for that matter with those who are working the unemployment rate is like checking how a party is going based on everyone who's at the party and doesn't take into account the people who were never invited to the park party or couldn't get in and also doesn't take into account the people were in the wrong room at a party at having a bad time for the proportion of Americans were no longer in the workforce have stopped looking for work isn't a multi decade high there a previous presently a record 95,000,000 working age Americans a full 37% of adults who are out of the workforce in 2000 there were only 70,000,000 that change can be explained in part by demographics higher numbers of students and retirees but there are still five million Americans out of the workforce would like a job right now that aren't considered in the unemployment rates both the historically low labor participation rates and broader measures like the use six rate that include underemployment show high levels of dislocation and a less healthy labor markets particularly for younger workers the New York Federal reserve recently measured the underemployment mates of recent college graduates and came up with 44% BU six unemployment rate was 8.4% and made 2017 almost twice the headline number usage rate is much more revealing measurements as range between 9% in 16% for the past 10 years the unemployment rate is a terribly misleading number that we should stop relying on the lessons accompanied by a discussion of both the rate of underemployment and the labor force participation rates if we were undergoing a technological revolution wouldn't we be saying it appear in increased productivity you probably weren't thinking about this one but is a question that economist and academics have been debating the thought is that we'd see a productivity spite if we were doing a ton more with technology and fewer people productivity numbers are actually lower now than they have been in quite some time leading people to say that any other nation related job displacement concern is misplaced there are a few possible explanations one is that productivity indicators are that we're looking for example productivity numbers will show zero indication of self driving vehicles until tens of thousands are on the road yet we can be pretty sure they're coming were not ostriches we can look around and make regional bowl projections of the future counting on the measurements to tell us was going on is like waiting until the storm was here before the sitting down the hatches another that is that it's possible that low productivity numbers actually reflect an overabundance of labor looking for things to do fifth Ryan evidence of the economist poses a theory that technology has created an abundance of labor both human and machine and that companies when faced with both lower lower labor costs and a low gross environments invest less in new technology which leads to lower productivity growth is where suggest that we're in an environment where employers are faced with low incentives to innovate because people are quite cheap to hire for example imagine if over the years I slowly invented a machine that did the work of 10% of American workers would unemployment surge by 10% over that time know because the displaced workers would have to keep working in order to feed themselves and so would take any jobs and sites this thus depressing wages and keeping productivity loan would also keep incentives low to automate away further labor and oppressed the labor participation rates this is a pretty perfect description of where we are right now there is another big reason that pope productivity statistics do not show a massive increase in output balance my fewer workers were still technically in an expansion and employers say the toughest most unpopular decisions for when times get hard when I was the ceo of my education company in the mid two thousand's we had many years of robust growth times were flush which made it a lot easier to be a generous boss be at three food a loss and regular company outings I bought the company makes and maps tickets season tickets that we divided among the teen people got raises and bonuses very reliably than we had a month where revenue was lower than the year before it was January 2009 to it seem like it might be a very important sign of things to come I went into my office and started planning for different scenarios that in the car wreck Unch the contraction path that led me looking at personnel and making and ways to make things more deficient these included not hiring new people of short sourcing certain non-core services scaling back on planned races and renegotiating with vendors we had an exceptional team where there were a couple recent hires that I thought we could potentially let go of the things became really tough in flush times I would not have given those recent hires a second thoughts that are wary came our revenue shot back up and put the contingency plan away adopting only one item from it that seemed like a good thing to do day and Gilbert once said to be a bow is still my teams that if you have one choice shoes growth the way management Eames work is that were we generally try to grow and take advantage of opportunities we try to operate efficient three but it's not our number one priority all of the time we also don't walk around trying to be jerks in periods of relative prosperity when things get tight however management in start to scrutinize everything in the name of cost and discipline people processes technology vendors suppliers partners leases holiday events units in all goes on the table if it's not nailed down we look at ways to make it cheaper or do without its in even if it is nailed down the right look for in mail remover if you look at the mysteries of layoffs they maintain a fairly normal pace until a recession hits that employers go wild but the four efficiencies and throwing people overboard the real test of the impact of automation will come in the next downturn companies will look to replace their call centers and customer service departments with artificial intelligence and hybrid baht worker all range mints fast food CEOs will experiment with robot burger flippers freight companies will embrace cost savings large companies will question why their accounting and legal bills are so high and on LAN cost cutting knives will come out for th turbocharged my new automated tools for charts fifth product charity will then shoot up in the worst way possible as companies accomplish the same tasks with many fewer workers are public sector will also be faced with dramatic new needs even as tax revenues decrease in the introduction I said that we were the frog in the waters getting hotter and might be more accurate to say that where the frog and the grill is being preceded part two what's happening to us nine life in the bubble six paths to six places we've talked a little bit about what I've turned normal Americans before starting venture for America I spent six years running a national test prep company that served college graduates so I've also been highly exposed to what highly educated Americans are doing their parents are quite predictable and consistent whether they realize it consciously or not many educated Americans have been shifting their studies in career intentions corps paths that seem more sustainable amid eight narrowing job markets its a we choked adventure for America that smart people in the United States will do one of six things in six persons finance consulting law technology medicine or academic a a a New York San Francisco lost in Chicago Los Angeles for Washington, DC conventional wisdom says the smartest things to do to day or two had to Wall Street and become a financial wizard or go to silicon valley and become eight tech genius the finance and Technology Industries spent all of tens of millions each year to build massive talent recruitment pipelines they hang on out on college campuses and essentially stop top prospects throwing at them food money drinks flights prestige status training for a fifth network peer pressure and anything else that might be considered enticing a friend in Financial Services estimated that her firm spends $50,000 per Hai and higher just on sourcing in recruiting one hedge fund paid a dark mouth students $100 each to tell them why they decided not to engage in its recruitment process there's even a Goldman Sachs room at columbia's career services office a friend of mine at a wall street bank commented that he felt funny in recruiting Ph.D.s from Caltech to write trading algorithms for him I feel like they should be working on the mission to Mars or something but he keeps doing it every year in silicon valley many young people generally from very good colleges are making more money in a year than normal Americans will see in a decade even summer interns nine engineers at tech companies might make $7000 a month and get perks like three flights home to visit on weekends bidding wars in five and six digit signing bonuses are being paid out for freshly minted engineering grads who will recruits the heck out of Stanford Berkeley Carnegie Mellon and 90 and other top schools offering six figures to start plus bonuses face books munchers hacker thons at the public at the top schools stays in touch with professors and invest tons of resources in order to be the most visible and obvious employer average salaries are inching close 2200 thousand dollars in silicon valley you say nothing of the upside of equity based compensation eighth in a stock options which can be dramatically higher don't think that this markets haven't noticed the proportion of Stanford students majoring in the humanities has plummeted from over 20% to only 7% in 2016 prompting panic among history and English departments was once popular class is no longer halves students one administrator joke to me that Stanford is now the Stanford institute of technology is the latest available data on what graduates of various high in universities are doing after graduation charts fifth of not only do grannies from national universities do the same things they also to them in the same places 80% of graduates of brown university my Elma matter moved to one of four metropolitan areas after graduating in 2015 New York City Boston and San Francisco or Washington, DC similarly more than half of the graduates in the class of 2016 at Harvard university had plans to move to New York message to kids or California 74% of Gail seniors in the United States reported accepting jobs in one of the following places last year New York California Connecticut Massachusetts and Washington, DC the mighty graduates prefer to stay in Massachusetts or moved to California or New York staffers class of 2015 sure a strong preference for staying in California are national universities are effectively of talent to rain on 75% of the country if you're in if you're a high achiever from say Wisconsin's Ron Montes or New Mexico and you go to pen or duke or john Hopkins the odds are that chill moved to New York or California or DC and your home state will never see you again charts fifth Financial Services &Technology are absorbing most of our top educational products there like twin canyon cannons on opposite sides of the country continuously pushing for increased profitability and sufficiency the normal American is meant to benefit through increased access to Technology Capital gains and more streamlined businesses unfortunately these benefits are now being counterbalanced by a dramatic reduction in opportunity's sheet tee shirts of booming stock market and a wide array of Are cold comfort when you don't own any stock and your local factory or main street closes why are so many people many bright people doing the same things in the same places they are driven by a desire to succeed and there are only a few clear versions of what success looks like today thanks to the built up recruitment pipelines money status treating a healthy dating markets peer pressure and an elevated career trajectory all seem to lead in the same direction also driving the uniformity is a pervasive anxiety and scramble the prioritizes credentialing and market success over all else in part because failure seemed to bring catastrophic economic and social consequences instead of saying causes it. A intellectual exploration many young people now see it as a mass sort of coal that determines one's future prospects and lot in life one reason students feel pressure to seek high paying jobs is the record level of school tax student debt levels have exploded relative to other forms of debt over the past decorate decade in particular educational loan totals recently surpassed $1.4 trillion in the United States up from $550,000,000 in 2011 and only 98000000 dollars in 1999 the average level of indebtedness upon graduation is 31,000 $172 and there are 44,000,000 students and borrowers default rates have crept up steadily to 11.2% chart for among children of even successful and highly educated families there are sky high levels of anxiety and depression the use of prescription drugs is at an all time high among college grad students as is the use of college counseling offices which report being overwhelmed two for counseling increased at five times the rate of a moment over the last 10 years wait lists to see a counselor at USC a well resource private school were reporting as being 6 to 8 weeks long for non emergency cases and many schools had similar difficulty meeting demand Julie life cuts high and it's a dean at Stanford wrote a book in 2015 about the changing character of the students she was seeing went on in one generation from independent young adults too brittle an existential eat impotence in 2014 and American College health association survey of close to 100,000 college students reported that 86% felt overwhelmed by all they had to do 54% felt overwhelming anxiety and 8% seriously consider suicide in the last 12 months relationships of chase's well danger in balances on many college campuses women now outnumber men 57% to 43% in college nationally have helped lead to a book up cold sure that arose a sense of connection one and three students say that their intimate relationships have been traumatic or very difficult to handle and 10% say that they've been sexually coerced or assaulted in the past year the academically some raid describes an environment where the prevailing norm is to downgrade your partner for days afterwards to make sure they don't catch feelings when was it Cobol generations ago environment to find love and maybe even a partner is a place where you prove yourself detached enough to ignore someone the next day when I applied to college in 1992 repairs were punt that I got into Stanford and brown schools that had acceptance rates of 21 in 23% respectively at the time to date the acceptance rates at those schools are only 4.8%9.3% of which was very difficult now requires planning and cultivation from birth is competition breeds a need for constant forward momentum I feel this constant pressure to make something of myself release one venture for America a long who now works as a startup after interning at an investment bank even during celebrations is like we're all plotting the next competition by friends have a ton of ambition and no clear place to channel it's a get the sense that we're all trading happiness to run a little faster even if we're not sure where if you're not the cream of the crop why be in a crop that all said of recent graduate of northwestern who grew up in Westchester County of course some young people dislike the conformity and yarn for a sense of choice an exploration one college senior at Princeton remarked me which are here you become awfully risk averse is more about not failing then doing anything in particular another said I'm so busy here I'd love some time to think is a thinking in college didn't belong in the same sentence is book excellent sheep William Dershowitz describes the current generation of strivers as driven to achieve without knowing why and then they become paralyzed when they're not sure how to preceded I remember when I was growing up unsteady four days trying to get good grades if I got in a I feel leash and for about 30 seconds and then a feeling of emptiness I called the hangups associated with the drive to succeed the achievement and demons thousands of young people share the same thirst to achieve that I had rising out of a combination of family pressures in the nation and in Howard entity that their smart or talented or special or destined to do something significant all on top of a trade that they'll year to stay in the winner's circle needs to add on a massively dire Fates for you might be thinking who cares if the coddled college kids are depressed one reason to care is that private company ownership is down more than 60% among 16 among 18 to 30 your role since 1989 the Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled endangered species young U.S. entrepreneurs and Mullen deals are on track to be the least entrepreneurial generation in modern history in terms of business formation in terms of the depressed indented risk averse young people generally don't start companies is we'll have a fax four decades to come but more profoundly if there is something deeply wrong in even the winner is even the winners of the mass scramble to climb to the top of the education meritocracy are so unhappy they are asking what every striving a struggling for no one knows the answer seems to be to try to join the tribes in the coastal markets and work your pass off even as those opportunities become harder to come by if you don't like the answer there are very few others I try to provide a new answer rest on adventure for America in 2011 the new path would be to build businesses in diverse places around the country I thought there would be reductive and character building our mission statement read in parts to restore the culture of achievement to include value creation risk and reward and the common good upon joining venture for America we ask our Fellows to adopt the following credo by career as a choice that indicates my values there is no crudes without risk value creation is how I measure achievements I will create opportunity for myself and others I will hacked with integrity in all things that credo is awfully lofty and idealistic rested in front of the first class and 2012 to discuss these values all admit to feeling a little bit self conscious I should have worried better for america's sense of purpose in community has been like water to very thirsty people so many via thayer's have developed close relationships and close friendships and relationships based on shared values and try to do difficult things together better for America is filled a void in many people's lives in supporting individual paths and richter's but for every person in venture for America are about 10,000 other young people who want the same things I will stop there and I'm reading the war on normal people buy and regain and unlike zone thanks for listening month of