bittubers.com/playlist/1006/8 By unlike zone and I'm reading the war on normal people by injury hanging of the challenges are magnified because American Society is not in great shape right now there are a number of trends that are going to make managing the transition to a new economy all the more difficult we're getting older they don't have adequate retirement savings we are financially insecure we use a lot of drugs we're not starting new businesses were depressed the owe a lot of money public and private our education system under for forms are economy is consolidating around a few mega powerful firms in our most important industries are media is fragmented our social capital is lower we don't trust institutions anymore this last one makes everything order and reminds me of any relationship with the neck of my relationship with the Knicks I was 15 years old when I became a huge fan of the New York Knicks and watch date you being led makes go up to two nothing on and Michael jordan's bulls for me to lose the series 4 to 2 I felt the pain alongside my friends in crave revenge is became a part of my lights fabric with their deep playoff runs in 1994 and 1999 by watermarks and we watch every game I couldn't even listened to games on the radio from my college dorm room when I moved to New York and stood in line each year to get nosebleed $10.00 and $20.00 seats after the Knicks became uncompetitive I gritted my teeth through the Isaiah Thomas Kara and check the potential of tractors that these like frank Williams and mike sweet me my love affair turn sour after success from years of turmoil not the losing a totally don't mind waiting for a team that's developing young guys and losing competitively button and this series of bad behavior in bad decisions began to sour knee was started out as a wholesome sports allegiance Biltmore in more like an abusive relationship I can follow the Knicks in the more their leadership was corrupt your fingers were unsympathetic and incompetence is war of the Knicks in 2014 and never looked back fifth is essentially how many Americans feel about most institutions nowadays they love interest have been taken for granted and abused public faith in the Medical System the media public schools in government are all at record lows compare two past errors charts we have entered an age of transparency where we can see our institutions and leaders for all of their flaws trustees for the gullible everything now will be a fights appealing to common interests will be all the more difficult in the musical Hamilton the protagonist refers to the newly formed United States as Youngman scrappy and hungry that hasn't been us for quite awhile membership and organizations like the PTA the Red Cross labor unions and recreational leagues has declined by between 25 and 50% since the 1960s even time spent on informal socializing and visiting is down by a similar level are social capital has been declining for a long time and there is no sign of a reversal all of these things make addressing technological unemployment ardor we no longer believe we're capable of turning things around without something dramatic trenching among the things being question is our capitalist system among young people polls show a very high degree of sympathy for other types of economies in part because they've witness capitalism's failures and excesses these past years kind of capitalism anyone who has a smart phone in their pocket as to appreciate the power of markets to drive value and innovation we all have capitalism to thank for most of what we enjoy and is elevated the standard of living of billions of people and defines our society for the better they said capitalism with the assistance of technology is about to turn on normal people of capital and efficiency will prefer robot its software a Aydin machines to more to people more and more capitalism is like AR mentor and guiding light to whom we've listened for years the helped us make great decisions for a long time but it's some point he got older teamed up with his friends technology and together they became more extreme they started saying things like on that automate everything and if the market doesn't like it get rid of its which made reasonable people increasingly nervous even the most part nos business person to recognize that the gains and losses from unprecedented technological advances led dramatic sets of human winners and losers and that the system needs to account for that in order to continue capitalism doesn't work well doesn't work that well if people don't have any money to buy things or if communities are degenerating into scarcity in anger and despair the question is when is to be done if we do nothing society will become dramatically by for cases of on levels we can scarcely imagine there will be a shrinking number of affluent people in a handful of mega cities and those who caught their hair and take care of their families there will also be enormous numbers of increasingly destitute and displaced people in decaying towns around the country that the trucks drive past without stopping some of my friends project a violent revolution that this picture comes to pass history would suggest that this is exactly what will happen america's me getting was five and in most measurable ways by the crimes and protests are all less common than in the past even though it doesn't seem like it's for example there were approximately 2500 leftist bombings in America between 1971 and 1972 which would seem unfathomable to unfathomable today and it's possible that we may already be too defeated and will be aided by the market to mount a revolution the mine to settle for making the full comments on line and watching and this year to videos with only the occasional flare up of violence amid many quiet suicides yet since almost certain than increasing levels of desperation will lead to destabilize editions one can imagine a single well publicized kidnapping or random heinous act against a child of the privilege fast meeting to bodyguards bulletproof bulletproof cars and batted safety chips in children and other measures the rich people I know tend to be somewhat paranoid about their own safety and that of their families to me without dramatic change the best case scenario is a hyper stratified society like something out of the hunger games or Guatemala with an occasional mash shooting the worst case is widespread despair violence and the other utter collapse of our society and economy is few points may strike some as extreme consider though that trucking protests were common in the final days of the Soviet union a large unemployed group of working age man is a common feature in Middle Eastern countries that experienced political upheaval and there are approximately 270 to 310,000,000 firearms in the United States almost one perfume and being we are the most heavily armed society in the history of mankind disintegration is unlikely to be gentle the unemployment rate at the height of the great depression was about 25% society experiences fractures well before all the jobs disappear in his book the ages of discord the scholar Peter Turgeon proposes a structural demographic theory of political instability based on societies throughout history he suggested there are three main preconditions to revolution one of each oversupply and disunity two popular misery based on the falling living standards and three a state in a fiscal crisis uses a host of variables to measure these conditions including real wages marital trends proportion of children into parent households minimum wage wealth distribution college tuition average height or supply of lawyers political polarization income tax on the wealthy visits to match national monuments trust in government and other factors to Jon points out that society is generally experience extended periods of integration and prosperity followed by periods of inequity increasing mystery and political instability that need to this integration and that we're in the midst of the letter us to the variables that he measures began trading negatively between 1965 and 1980 and now reaching near crisis levels by his analysis the U.S. right now has much in common with the interisland 1850s before the Civil War and more surprisingly with friends on the eve of the French revolution the projects increased of turmoil through 2020 and warns that we are rapidly approaching a historical cusp in which American Society will be particularly vulnerable to buy this upheaval have that there is a revolution is likely to be born of race and identity with automation driven economics as the underlying force a highly disproportionate number of the people at the top will be declared only educated whites Jews and Asians America is projected to become majority minority by 2845 African Americans and Latinos will almost certainly make up a disproportionate number of the less privileged in the wake of automation as they currently enjoyed lower levels of wealth and education racial inequality will become all the more jarring is the new majority remains on the outside gender inequality two will become more stark that women comprising the clear majority of college graduates yet still underrepresented in many environments this privilege whites may be more likely to blame people of color immigrants or shipping cultural norms or they're diminishing stature and shattered communities that they will automation and the cap than they will automation and the capitalist system culture wars will be proxy wars for the economic backdrops this is already happening and liquor us an offer in Baltimore resident described the Freddie gateway riots of 23 in 2015 as partially a product of economic despair the protest injured 20 police officers is all did in 250 arrests damaged 300 businesses cause 150 vehicle fires in 60 structure fires and led to the looting of 27 drugstores while the triggering events of the riots was the death of a 25 year old man in police custody the protesters themselves consistently routed their cause in rallying cry in more than police brutality it was about the hopelessness that came from growing up poor and black in a community that had been laid to waste with a loss of baltimore's industrial and manufacturing base and then gone ignored them black working class families had effectively been globalized in automated out of jobs the shudders through violence in 2017 over the removal of confederate symbols enough to be seen as engendered in part by economic dislocation it's it's the driver of the car that plowed into the crowd killing a young woman was from an economically depressed part of Ohio and had washed out of the military James Huston send the liberal activist who shot four people and critically wounded and congressman and a softball game in 2017 was a 66 year old unemployed house inspector from Illinois was marriage in finances were falling were failing the group I worry about most is poor whites even now people of color report higher levels of optimism than for whites despite worse economic circumstances is difficult to go from feeling like the pillar of one society to feeling like an afterthought or failure is a strong heritage of military service in many white communities there will be subverted into antigovernment militias white nationalist gangs and bunkers in the woods there will be more rent a mass shootings in the months ahead as middle aged white men self destruct and feel that life has no meaning as the mindset of scarcities breads and deepens people's executive function and will erode air intake self control to resist base impulses racism and misogyny will become more and more pervasive even as they are policed in certain sectors contributing to the discord will be a climate that he quits opposing ideas or speech to violence and eight righteousness can fuel import behavior and many react with a shocking level of vitriol in contempt for conflicting viewpoints and the people who hold them intrude as easy as is consummation addressing the conditions that breed hatred is very hard as more communities experienced the same phenomenon that the catalysts will be varied and the reactions contents and taking other people will be a lot easier than attacking the system could extreme behavior in some places even precede a political breakup of the country one can imagine California the most racially diverse progressive and with the state's fifth only if referendum to secede in response to events elsewhere in the country that are perceived as head of a stick and regressed if there is already a nascent movement among technologists libertarians and others in California to secede on economic grounds including the recent U.S. California our movement pushing Cal exits and the California National party about 1/3 Californian's supported secession in a recent poll up considerably from earlier levels California would be the sixth largest economy in the world as a separate country if there were a successful vote 2/3 Congress and 3/4 states would be required to approve it under the constitution which today seems impossible however California's departure would permanently tilt the company's political balance which could be up appealing to the party in power such a vote could also prompt a reprisal or punishment Texas likewise has a long history of secessionist movements barely a I wrote about truck drivers who will soon start to lose their jobs or have their wages reduced as automated trucks enter the market went to mention that one of them mike owns a small trucking company with 10 trucks and 30 drivers he sees is life savings about to go down the tubes because he knows the bank's hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans you took out to buy his pupils mike says to his guys book of this we can't be replaced by roebuck trucks this go to Springfield and demand our jobs back the leads a protest in Illinois and hundreds of truckers joining some of them breaking their vehicles and blocking roads the police respond but they are reluctant to use force the crowds multiply is more drivers and rioters arise inspired by what they see on social media truckers begin to protest another state capitals in the tens of thousands the National Guard is activated and the president calls for call but his order groans various antigovernment militia and white and nationalist groups say this is our chance and arrive in each state to support the truckers some of them bring in various weapons and violence breaks out the protests in violence spread to the capitals of Alabama Arkansas Idaho Indiana Kentucky Mississippi Michigan and Ohio and Nebraska locals take advantage of police preoccupation in these areas and began looting drug stores nearby the president calls for a return to order and says that he will meet with the truckers however the protests morph into many distinct conflicts with unclear demands and fragmented leadership mike is held up as a symbol of the working man but has no control the riots raged for several weeks in the aftermath there are dozens dead hundreds injured and arrested and billions of dollars worth of property damage and economic harm images of the violence spread on the Internet and are seen by millions in real time after the riots things continue to deteriorate hundreds of thousands stop paying taxes because they refuse to support a government that killed the working man a man in a bunker surrounded by dozens of guns releases a video saying come and get your taxes IRS man that goes spiral into Semitic violence breaks out targeting those to own the robots a white nationalist party arises that openly advocates returning America to its roots in traditional gender roles and when several state races in the south goofy and literature for the new party appear on college campuses which leads to protests and settings a shooter arrives in the lobby of a technology company in Sampras Cisco and wounds several people technology companies hire security forces but 30% of employees request to work remotely due to the sense of fear several tech companies moved to Vancouver citing a desire for employee safety the California secession movement surges and state officials move to protect the border and implement checkpoints 5 May be the scenario I sketched above it seems unlikely to me it seems this depressing only possible but his vision assumes that we keep the system as it is right now where we prioritize capital of fish and sea of of all and see people primarily as economic imports the market will continue to drive us in specific directions that will be two extremes even as opportunity's diminish at every turn forestalling automation and retaining jobs might help some would argue we should require that a human is in every truck only let doctors look at radiology firms and maintain employment levels in fast food restaurant sand call centers however it would be nearly impossible to curb automation for any prolonged period of time effectively across all industries result would be that certain workers and industries would be protected while others in an industry that is less score like retail would be quickly to put displaced is reminds me of a story the economist Milton Friedman told about visiting eight Chinese worksite the notices that there are no big tractors or pieces of equipment only men with shovels he asks is guided where all the machines to date the polls and moved the earth is can respond you don't understand is a program designed to create jobs Milton bins for a second then asks so why give them shovels time only flows in one direction and progress is a good thing as long as it sped if it's our shared doing nothing needs to almost certain row and try to forestall progress is likely a doom strategy overtime what's left when you're left with no other options the unthinkable becomes necessary you must change and reformat the economy and society to progress through a massive and historical shifts much of this book has likely come across is quite negative the transition will indeed be very difficult by the opportunities I had our vast Robert Kennedy famously said that GDP does not allow for the health of our children the quality of their education or the joy of their play and measures everything in short except that which makes life worthwhile we have to think start thinking more about what makes life worthwhile for part three solutions and human capital unit capitalism 16 and the freedom dividend at this point you may be hanging your head thinking Mao this guy's view of the future is bleak one friend who read early page is said to me reading this feels like I'm getting punched in the face repeatedly another said you should change the title two mere folks there are potential solutions to these problems these will certainly be very difficult in the years ahead as jobs disappear but there are things we can do that will make beings dramatically better they will require imagination will confidence empathy and it can do spirits been a phrase offer author of four futures points out that work encompasses three things the means by which the economy produces goods and services the means by which people earn income and an activity that man's meeting or purpose to many people's lives we should tackle these one at a time with the easiest one 1st in a future without jobs depot will need to be able to provide for themselves and their basic needs eventually the government will need to intervene in order to prevent widespread squalor despair and violence the sooner the government's tax the more-Shing our society will be the first major change would be to implement implements and universal basic income UPI which I would call the freedom dividends United States should provide an annual income of $12,000 for each American his teaching to 64 it's it's a with the amount index to increase with inflation that would require a constitutional supermajority to modify or amends fifth of the freedom dividend would replace the vast majority of existing welfare programs is plan was proposed by Andy stern the former head of the largest labor union in the country in his book raising the floor the poverty line is currently 11,770 we would essentially be bringing all Americans to the poverty lines and alleviate roast poverty and universal basic income is a version of Social Security where Alsip citizens receive a set amount of money per month independent of their work status or income everyone from a hedge funds billionaire in New York to an impoverished single mom in West Virginia would receive a monthly check of $1000 if someone is working as a waitress or construction worker making $18,000 he or she would essentially be making $30,000 UPI eliminates the disincentive to work that most people find troubling about traditional well for welfare programs in when you work you could actually start saving and get ahead with the growing threat of automation the concept has gained renewed attention with trials being run in oakland's Canada and Finland as well as in India and other parts of the developing world today people tend to associate universal basic income with technology utopians but a form of UPI almost became law in the United States in 1970 and 1971 passing the house of representatives twice before stalling in the senate's versions of the idea have been championed by robust thinkers of every political persuasion for decades including some of the most admired figures in American Life use a sampling , Spain 1796 are they collected funds from landowners there shall be paid to every person men arrived at the age of 21 years the sum of £15.00 as a compensation in part for the loss of his or her natural inheritance to every person rich for war Martin Luther king junior in 1967 and now convinced that the simplest approach will prove to be the most effective the solution to poverty is to abolish it directly buying now widely discussed measure the guaranteed income richer nation August 1969 when I am proposing is that the Federal gov't build a foundation under the income of every American family that cannot care for itself and wherever in America that family may live Milton Friedman 1980 we sure replace the red bed of specific welfare programs with a single comprehensive program of income supplements and cash and negative income tax which would do more efficiently and humanely with our present welfare system does so in efficiently and inhumane the Bernie Sanders made 2014 in my view every American is entitled to at least a minimum standard of living there are different ways to get to that goal but that's the goal that we should strive to reach Stephen hawking the July 2015 everyone can enjoy a life of luxuriously sure if the machine produced wealth is shared all or most people can end up in miserably poor if the machine orders successfully lobbied against wealth redistribution to far the trend seems to be tore the second option with technology driving ever increasing inequality a rocking bomb on June 2016 the way I described it is that's because of automation because of globalization we're going to have two exam and the social compact the same way we did early in the 19th century and then again during and after the great depression of the notion of a 40 hour workweek a minimum wage child labor laws six cetera those will have to be updated for these new realities Morocco, October 2016 what is indisputable is that as the eye gets further incorporated and the society potentially guess wealthier the link between production and distribution how much you work and how much to make this further and further antennae waited will be debating unconditional three money over the next 10 or 20 years warren Buffett January 2017 we have to figure out how to distribute its people who fall by the wayside through no fault of their own as the goose legs more golden age should still get a chance to participate in that prosperity and that's where governments comes in bill Gates' January 2017 a problem of excess automation forces us to look at the individuals affected and take those extra resources and make sure they're directed to them in terms of me education and income policies gates later suggested taxing robots the LAN must February 2017 I think we'll end up doing universal basic income is going to be necessary there will be fewer and fewer jobs than a robust cannot do better I want to be clear these are not things I wish will happen these are things I think probably will happen mark Sauter Byrd made 2017 we should explore universal basic income so that everyone has a cushion to try and new ideas my mom September 2017 if you think it's a good idea Andy I'm sure it's a good idea you may be thinking this will never happened and if it did wouldn't cause runaway inflation enabled generations of wastrels the fifth to $12,000 a year is not enough to do more then scrape by name made few people will quit their jobs because of a guaranteed income at this level unless they were in a marginal or exploitative situation the available data bears this out on the other hand the benefits would be absolutely enormous it would be a massive stimulus to lower cost areas that would empower people to avoid making terrible decisions based on financial scarcity and mouth to mouth needs it would be a phenomenal boon to creativity and entrepreneurship that would enable people to more effectively transition from shrinking industries environments to new ones he would reduce stress improve health decrees crime and strengthen relationships it was a port parents and caretakers for the work that they do particularly mothers in a gain of gave all citizens and on a stake in society and a sense of the future that would restore a sense of optimism and faith in communities around the country was stimulated maintain the consumer economy through the automation wave it would maintain order border and preserve a way of life do the greatest economic and social transition in history would make our society more equitable fair and just in analysis by the Roosevelt institute of this $12,000 per year per adult proposal found that adopting it would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 for 13 new 13.10% or about 2.5 trillion by 2025 and would increase the labor force by 4.5 to 4.7 million people putting money into people's hands and keating keeping is there would be a perpetual boost and support to job growth in the economy the cost would be about an additional $1.32 trillion per year on top of existing welfare programs most of Unch which would be folded into the plan as well as increased taxable revenue and cost savings conservatives would rejoice that the patchwork of 126 plans with pervade perverse incentives and cumbersome bureaucracy is what most lead disappear the cost of $1.3 trillion seems like an awful lot for reference the Federal budget is about four trillion dollars and the entire U.S. economy about $19,000,000,000,000 by there are myriad ways to pay for it's the most sensible way to pay for it in my view would be with a value added tax that's the consumption tax that would generate income from the people and businesses that benefit from society the most is the challenge we need to extract more of the value from automation in order to pay the public goods in support displaced workers but it turns out that automation and robots are very tricky things to identify your tax that the CVS replaces a cashier with self checkout and in hype had is that consider automation or if a bank replaces 200 call center workers with a software program what do they pay assuming appropriate staffing levels is impossible must you actually don't want to tax automation to heavily because you don't want to discourage the discouraging too much you need a value it's creating to pay for things on other thing to keep in mind technology companies are excellent at avoiding taxes apple for example has $230,000,000,000 in overseas burnings is holding a broad to avoid paying taxes my purse soft has 124 billion and Goebel has 60 billion our current system of taxation will have a hard time over sting the gains of automation from both the giant tech companies that will be among the biggest winners as well as from the small tech companies which often aren't hugely profitable even Texans human income will become increasingly problematic as more and more work gets done by machines and software hands gates suggestion that we should start taxing robots the best way to ensure public gains from the automation way would be a vats so that people and companies does pay the tax when they buy things or employ services for businesses in kits and back baked into the cost of production at every level and makes it much harder for large companies which are experts at reducing their taxes to benefit from the American infrastructure and citizenry without paying into its name because companies like Amazon would pay the most into the system because of that gets paid based on volume not prune profits and also would make it's so that we all rush for progress the mechanic in Appalachia with feel like he's getting a state every time someone gets rich net of 193 countries 160 already have a vats on ghost goods and services and stacks including all developed countries except the United States the average fats in Europe is 20% is well developed and its efficacy has been established that we adopted events at half the average European level we could pay for universal basic income for all American adults of that would result in slightly higher prices but technological advancement would continue to drive down the cost of most danes and with the backdrop of the universal basic income of $12,000 the only way of that of 10% makes you were soft is if you consume more than $120,000 in goods and services per year which means you're doing find an unlikely at the top of the income distributions businesses will benefit immensely from the fact that their customers will have more money to spend each month most Americans will spend the vast majority of their money localizing the hedge fund millionaire who spends $10,000,000 a year on private chats in fancy cars will pay one million dollars into the system hands for receiving $12,000 the single mom will pay about 2500 and received $12,000 and will also have the peace of mind of her child will start receiving $1000 dollars a month when he or she graduates from high school for people who consider this farcical consider the bailouts that took place during the financial crisis you may not recall that the U.S. gov't printed over four trillion dollars in new money for its quantitative easing program following the 2008 financial collapse is money went to the balance sheets of the banks and depressed interest rates in punished savers and retirees there was little to no inflation we did this nominally so that the banks would lend money to businesses who would then create jobs in shore up the economy Zee in practice most of the money went to the balance sheets of the banks and to inflate inflates passive mobiles all over the country primarily in assets like real estate in Manhattan and silicon valley and the stock prices of private companies like Huber and air beyond the many as human beings did get rich from the money printing bonanza but they were people among the best situated not the least we did this because we believed in institutions far more than we believe in our people with the freedom dividends money would be put in the hands of our citizens in a time of unprecedented economic dislocation that would grow the consumer economy and as a stimulus of people the vast majority of the money would go directly into the economic economy each month into paying bills feeding children visiting loved one's youth sports heating at the local restaurant piano lessons extra tutoring help car repairs small businesses housing improvements prenatal vitamins eldercare and so on most Americans are so cash extract the most of the money would be spent locally and quickly and the government needs to adopt as its primary mission managing the economic transition that automation will bring we're way behind the curve and need to catch up on relatively hopeful that the United States will wind up passing a UPI policy like the freedom dividend in the coming years in simple is fair is equitable based easy to understand the benefits at least 80% of the population and will be necessary to maintain the fabric of society during the automation wave it will become increasingly popular and common sense it was simply take an act of Congress and that checks transfers will start going out neighbor leader Andy stern comments the government is not great at many things but it is excellent in sending large number of checks to large numbers of people even in its current stability to state the government's been easily start collecting of vats in sending out the freedom dividend to end poverty as we know it and prepare society for the future and will stop there and I'm reading the war on normal people buy and regain and I might miss some things for listening of P a G E T T CB E