RBI To Hike Key Lending Rate By Year-End

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to raise interest rates again in the final three months of this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, but over one-third of them predicted a hike as early as at the next meeting in August.

Accelerating inflation and India retaining top spot as the fastest-growing major economy prompted the RBI to lift the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 per cent at the June 4-6 meeting, wrong-footing a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters who had expected no change.

The latest poll, taken in the past week, showed 43 of 56 economists forecasting the RBI's repo rate at 6.50 percent or higher in the quarter ending December.
In a poll ahead of the central bank's June meeting the median consensus had showed no hike until August.

Some respondents in the latest poll said the next move won't come until 2019.

The common theme in recent Reuters polls showed there will be just two interest rate hikes through to the end of next year and the latest suggests economists have just brought forward expectations for tightening with the median consensus now for no move in 2019.

"Whether it is August or October will be determined by the evolution of inflation and crude prices in particular, but also by developments on growth and emerging markets sentiment," said Abhishek Upadhyay, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd.