Currently BTC has found some temporary support, at the red trendline around $10500. At the moment, BTC is caught between that red support level and the 61.8% retrace around $11300 which you mentioned, that is the nearest upward target in range.
The 50 EMA (in orange) is quickly falling toward price action. Judging by how resistive the 50 EMA has been, the odds are that it will continue to put any attempted rallies in check.
If BTC breaks to the downside, the formation of a lower low would be highly likely. However, a break to the upside, particularly above the 50 EMA , would be reason to reassess the possibility that we may have formed a higher low. A break above the heavy resistance level would be a very good sign.
However, a confirmation that the bear market is over, will likely come from a sustained breakout above the rising black trendline .
Bitcoin market is different than it used to be. It is now heavily traded by institutional investors, who are generally more sophisticated. They want easy money — and that easy money is currently being made on the downside.
Trade with caution, Trend is our only friend.
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