I think the first part of 3 is accurate along with the second part of 2.
Why
I have been watching Bitcoin price about 4 years and did some day trading this year. I remember right after the first big peak around $1200 the price went down to under $500. In the trading world eventually there is always a correction after an uptick in volume slows down. Its all normal from what I have witnessed personally. When people buy on hype they are willing to pay more and the spikes are usually correlated with media coverage so when new people are rushing to buy the price is already above where it should be.
My Prediction
Aside from normal 10% corrections that occur occasionally I expect the price will be moving exponentially all year. Thats only if all goes well in the news and legally, but at some point, maybe $50,000 - 80,000, there will be a swift 50% correction. This is because mining difficulty and the markets control the price more than holders. No one that's just holding there bits is effecting the price directly, unless through personal endorsement and helping keep volume, so when the buy orders & hype start slowing down the price will likely see a dramatic correction.
Very interesting. I agree about hype/fomo buying. I know it is hyped right now but....I have 0 and have to start somewhere. I only feel this way because I agree that I will at least least 3-4 X growth over the next 2 years.
About the corrections...yes I wish we could see a nice drop back to 9-10k. I do not really see that happening though. I do consider waiting for the hype to die down to see what happens pricewise, but I do not want to waste money waiting (if that makes sense).
Thanks again for your reply, I am very new to this and need insight from people who are seasoned.
I'm no pro and have lost $ trading but if you want to wait for good dip in BTC but still want to get started I would suggest purchasing another coin thats stable and supports mining, like LTC or ETC. I mention those because price is comfortable with lots of room to grow..
Thanks for the tip!