To halving has nothing, and in the community there are more opinions on what will happen to the price of bitcoin after Polovinnaya awards. Not less interesting is the fate of cryptocurrency.
However, not only halving can affect the price movements of bitcoin, there are other serious factors. Edition Forklog decided to collect together the most important future events that will undoubtedly affect the price of bitcoin and the development of the whole industry in General.
THE UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
One of the latest assumptions regarding the price of bitcoin was done by Juniper Research. According to the researchers, the company, the price of the cryptocurrency could grow significantly if Donald trump wins the US presidential election this fall.
So, in a new published report, the authors made the following assumption:
"If Donald trump becomes President of the United States, the prospect of chaos on world markets will be more than a real — analytic unit of the group of companies of the Economist Group puts its presidency among the ten major global risks."
Donald trump really is known as a very notorious and even scandalous, but at the same time very popular politician. So, in January of this year, someone launched a Twitter bot that mixes up famous quotes trump with quotes from the subreddit /r/bitcoin. Resulting in a pretty funny message.
For example of The DAO:
“Hey @officialmcafee. We will build a wall around the blockchain and Ethereum will pay for it.”
It is worth noting that the main competitor to trump Hillary Clinton — if not will affect the price of bitcoin if he wins the election, then at least contribute to the development of the industry. At the end of last month, Clinton said that in case of victory intends to support the use and development of the blockchain in the field of public services.
Against this background, the interesting and traditional market collapses after coming to the White house the new administration. So, the arrival of Bush in 2000 was accompanied by the collapse of the dot-com parish Obmamy in the 2008 mortgage crisis in the United States. And apparently, this election will be no exception. The ideal candidate to create a new bubble and the sharp collapse in the current situation it looks like oil, especially considering how actively alternative energy sources have become a daily occurrence.
Well, let's see how will affect the price victona the likely collapse of oil prices. But look for triggers for the upcoming year is definitely worth it in this plane.
THE DEBATE ABOUT THE BLOCK SIZE
Prolonged dispute about increasing the size of the unit of bitcoin was recently updated rumors about the terminator or the Chinese ultimatum. Recall that one of the Chinese cryptocurrency media published a discussion of Chinese miners the proposal to switch to Bitcoin Classic. These rumors still have not been officially refuted or confirmed, but the market reaction on the day of the appearance of the publication forced the community to think seriously about the future development of the situation.
It is assumed that if the team Bitcoin Core will not increase the unit size to 2Mb by the end of July this year and finish full integration SegWit, China will begin the transition to Bitcoin Classic.
Chinese ultimatum spawned lively debate in community, which, of course, takes into account the dominant role of Chinese miners in the industry. On the other hand, it becomes increasingly obvious that the dispute about the size of the unit finally moved into the plane of political struggle inside the industry.
THE UPWARD TREND IN ICO AND NEW BLOCKCHAIN PLATFORMS
2016 began with a loud ICO: Lisk, The DAO. These crudely were very successful and teams were able to attract tens of millions of dollars.
It is noteworthy that almost immediately after the ICO Lisk appeared at least three projects to position itself as clones of this platform. These projects also had ICO, though less successful.
Soon a serious challenge for the industry was the attack on The DAO, which was stolen three million coins ETH. The community had split.
Of course, not every new project will meet such a tragic fate or prosecution of the clones. But do not forget that every month on small stock exchanges with the controversial reputation appears to five new cryptocurrency, the lifetime of which lasts 3-6 months.
Probably until mid-2017, we expect a major wave of krautsalat and, consequently, many new projects. All these projects need bitcoins to development, to develop, to provide liquidity. This dynamic can quickly lead to long-term stagnation of the whole industry and a massive disappointment.
In the end, most will be disappointed to pour their investments back to bitcoin and the alternative cryptocurrencies that will be able to gain a foothold during this time in the market (say, TOP 20, current within two years).
The same goes for blockchain developers, which at the moment, the market is sorely lacking. First, there will be much greater, they will be more qualified and will be able to create better products based on bitcoin or other blockchain-based systems. Therefore, an intensive emergence of new blockchain-systems and carrying out ICO is a very controversial factor that may affect bitcoin and the digital currency industry in General. This not only negatively but also positively.
CRAIG WRIGHT AND THE IDENTITY OF SATOSHI NAKAMOTO
Australian businessman, announced that he is the Creator of bitcoin, certainly adheres to one known to him plan. So, when Wright was able to convince a number of developers of Bitcoin Core that he is Satoshi, the Australian promised to make a transaction with one of the first bitcoin addresses. And it would be almost unconditional confirmation of the words of Wright.
Soon, however, he, for unknown reasons, refused to do so. After another protest to draw attention to his own person Wright for a while was gone again. And in June it became known that a company owned by the Australian, is prepared to receive several hundred patents related to Baccano. It is very difficult to assume, what exactly is the plan for Wright, but the consistency and perseverance with which it acts, certainly not testify to the delusion of a madman. It is likely that at some point Wright will make another statement revealing his involvement in the creation of bitcoin.
Toly Kaplan
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