Nice price analysis!
The impact of China on the crypto market (in trading volume) is not as big as many people may think. It could easily be evened out by increasing participation in other countries for example India, or just the increasing participation that will happen in North America or Europe as Cryptocurrencies become more and more mainstream.
But I think we will see another downtrend toward the $3100 or even $3k mark in the next couple of days or weeks before the market will recover to the prices we saw 2/3 weeks ago.
Watch my Video for my take on the China exchange ban and the market forecast:
NOW CONFIRMED: CHINA BANS EXCHANGES - WILL THERE BE ANOTHER CRASH?
There are definitely some hold outs in the Chinese market who have yet to dump. They wanted to get better prices for their coins so they waited a few days. We very well may see another round coming up! They are really trying hard to shake us off the Bitcoin wagon but I'm not budging :P
Neither am I. I think you're right, that we will see some more sell offs coming from China, but I'm optimistic that we will fully recover in October.