Who am I to be talking like I know anything? Well, I am a seasoned investor in the established Fiat equity markets and have been making far above average returns year on year for a very long time now.
How does this experience and knowledge transfer to crypto? Well, human behaviour is the same in all markets and all markets reflect human behaviour. Meaning crypto follows the same ebbs and flows of the established equity markets. The core different being the trending happens more spritely both up and down.
Bitcoin (BTC) just fell from $3,018 on the 11 Jun 2017, to $1,996 on the 15 July 2017 that is an amazing drop of 34%. Meaning on average a daily drop of 1% over the last 34 days since BTC hit an all time high.
My view now is that BTC will reverse all of its gains over the last 3 months and drop to $1,200, last seen in early April 2017. The crash will continue for the next 4 weeks before bottoming out and will be bouncing back to $2,000 in the following 3 months.
Confidence in the technology behind BTC is starting to wain. People are wondering was this just all the early adopters making billions out of their markets before crypto goes to zero. While it is possible, as it is for any equity or fiat currency to go to zero, I don't think this will happen for BTC. It will happen for many other cryptos and we will see it happen for many this year.
So what are the threats to BTC, well they are many both known and unknown? The technology behind crypto is now being adopted by mainstream banking and it remains to be seen how they implement it. Do not be surprised if the people who set up and miners who drove BTC and its technology and advancement go work for the banks.
BTC needs to get its house in order and very quickly. The mainstream media are slowly but surely eroding the public confidence of potential mainstream adoption of crypto. In addition, the reputation of existing users of BTC, miners and pretty much all other things to do with crypto is potentially shady and illegal. Hence the government will use public concern to either come in and shut down the crypto markets or regulated them out of existence. Thing is, in what the media is saying there is some truths and it makes perfect sense for the media to prey on these weaknesses.
The long-term health of the BTC and crypto is very skittish and Luddite's in the media and governments will use public fear to crush crypto. I don't know the answers how do deal with this I am just a fairly simple man... the issues are too complex to deal with.
There is great uncertainty in the BTC market due to the many issues and to be fair the difficulty that many people have with dealing in BTC and understanding the complex language and the like. Notwithstanding that I am getting in and staying in because I do believe we are in for a medium to long term win and some thing that will in what ever form it comes change the world as we know it.
I want to be part of it and there are.....
because I think the world has seen a real page turner of a story and we are only half way thought the first chapter of a very long and epic novel.
Hope you enjoyed and the best of luck to you all.
I suppose the jury is out regarding how low will bitcoin go. The media has been attempting to erode confidence in bitcoin since the start, always latching on to negative press regarding bitcoin. I think bitcoin will survive, too many problems are solved by bitcoin. Then again, the history of bitcoin is littered with incorrect predictions. Bitcoin is a freight train, it will take quite a bit to stop it.
@ryanreynolds sure I agree with you and my post echoes your response. What might stop BTC is the miners and their runaway egos. They seem to think about their own position and don't seem to think beyond into the market perception of their frivolous and sluggish behaviours.
Please resteem and follow me, while this is my first posting on Bitcoin I do plan covering a lot more on crypto and BTC.
I know you put a lot of thought into your post and I respect that......however you are comparing the cc market which is in it's infancy to established markets. You are trying to put logic where there is not yet a basis for logic. The BTC market may have went down 30%, but to average that at 1% per day and then "logically" expect that to continue is not reality. BTC will continue on whatever path it is on leading up to Aug. 1st, but on or around there, there will be some resolve to the scaling issue and after that BTC will rise. As for other cc's some may go away, but again it is way too early to start predicting that they'll start folding up this year. And last, if you think the dev's that are working to make and keep this a decentralized market will all of the sudden turncoat and start working for the banks......well, with all due respect, you really need to learn more about this market and the people that are pouring their heart and souls into it.
@spicyer thanks for the reply, it is helpful and constructive. Yes, there are many things I don't know about this market, I only joined it 10 days ago.
Where I get my information from is actually from research, from the people who know this market better than me. I could well be wrong, as the saying goes "the proof is in the pudding".
Just trying to add value to this platform and stimulate conversion on where this crash it going. What I would say, this market is a market and markets are based on human behaviours, will the technicalities of the situation have evolved the humans have not.
With regards to the turncoats, your logic comes from the point that you are in the position of the miners and developers, it is not practical to think you under stand the situation of each person circumstance.
Your reply was well thought out and written, I would like to hear more from you.
nice one @arthur-schopen
got to your page from @jerrybanfielld
but all these issues...if crypto fails and others follow suite what of steem?
this is just soo confusing...many will cash in and buy and resale for more money while others will loose and chicken out!
P.U.R.R. for you as well, Arthur!
Great Post... however, I do not think BTC will fall quite as far as you do, but that is just my "gut feeling". A BIG Part of it is the rash of new ICO's that are coming online, but that will slow up pretty quick. I do agree, that the public perception is being molded by the LSM or "Lame-Stream Media" but the biggest factors are mostly growing pains that are largely just part of the internal struggles and natural flows of cryptos. The LSM knows his but is LYING, once again, trying to disparage the crypto markets. I suspect that their new darling "TEZOS" will get rave reviews. It is basically a "Goldman-Sachs" coin, and Clif High advises CAUTION, if you have it, be careful!
@underground thanks a million and thanks for the resteem. You're a good guy and going to do well on Steemit. Hey what do you think of this haha it's my first attempt at a poem
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@arthur-schopen/30-bitcoin-i-penned-a-poem-for-you-it-s-my-first-poem-ever-so-be-gentle-haha
You know, I am going to start using your acronyms in my postings they are excellent.... LSM or "Lame-Stream Media LOL
Acronyms? Go Ahead! LSM is not mine, but I did make the abbreviation I believe. We use that on silverdoctors.com a LOT. I have spread it around the web quite a bit. Feel Free to use that! ;)
As for "doing well" I may hit 300 follows today (current is 298!) and I just passed level 44, and could be @ 44.2 when I sign off! AMAZING! Thanks to YOU, and my faithful followers, plus gracious up-voters! Never thought I'd be cruising along so well...
@underground silverdoctors.com just bookmarked. You will burst 300 in no time at all. I am still learning about all these levels, the knowledge will come in time.
Great post and thanks for the well written content :)
thanks honey-pot please resteem :)
Great post, kuddo's from a fixed income trader. You have yourselve a new follower, resteemed and upvoted! Looking out for more of your posts.
@snowy1nl thanks a million buddy much more to come and I look forward to seeing more of your content. You also have a new follower :)
let me know what you think :)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@arthur-schopen/30-bitcoin-i-penned-a-poem-for-you-it-s-my-first-poem-ever-so-be-gentle-haha
Let's hope you're wrong. That kind of drop would destroy alts for a while. P.S. Buy Stratis!
who knows, maybe I am wrong but I will not be so wrong that say in a 3 months time he was way off the mark. You will see that we are in a bear market... not only are the general investors in BTC nervous but so are the miners. The problem with the BTC miners is their egos.
I don't have credentials wrt to this type of prognosis. Nevertheless, my prognosis has been since the first peak at 2500 for Bitcoin to get down to at least 1600, more likely to 1000 - 1200, possibly even more.
So, nice to see similar predictions made by a professional.
Thanks for the comment @fricibacsi Bitcoin and crypto are in a bubble and a potential black swan event happening with regards the forking in BTC.
For BTC and all other cryptos, there are many potential black swan events which cannot be predicted by the most informed let alone the average investor and again even less so by the average Joe on the street.
It is possible for cryptos to go to zero and some will, the question is which ones?
This is my first posting on Bitcoin there will be more to come..... please resteem this post if you like it and follow me .. I wish to create lots of value adding content in the future :)
Hi @arthur-schopen, great post. I also thought it might drop down to this level potentially. What makes you believe that it will keep on going down after August 1? A lot of people made this assumption that BTC and the rest of cryptocurrency will go up if everything seems fine after Aug 1st. However, I believe it might continue going down sometime after it.
I have done some research on btc for me i would enter buy when prices are in the range of $1000-$1200ish and worst still buy somemore when its in the range of $988ish.