Are We Doomed?
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Out of curiosity, I compared the last big correction with the current one. If we're gonna draw conclusions that the history will repeat itself then we're pretty screwed for the next year or so. The last crash did a classic ABC correction down to around 70-80%. Then 2 weeks later it bounced back quickly and crashed back down again, following a long correction. If we're gonna follow the same pattern, my target is around $17 000 and after that we're going down for a while. The only thing that will make my count invalid is if we break new all time high above $20 000.
Is this prediction congruent with many of my altcoin analyses? Yes, because based on this thesis, bitcoin will possibly pull all altcoins with it one more last time before heading back down and completing the C wave. Remember, this are just my speculations I'm sharing to start discussions and raise awareness. What do you think?
I hope you guys like the content I'm putting out. I want to evolve and would like to know if there's anything I can do better to serve you. Any suggestions on coins or more fundamental analyses? I wanna hear your thoughts steemians!
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2013 Crash
2018 Crash
Disclaimer:
I'm not a financial advisor and these are only my opinions. I don't take any responsibility for any investments that you make based on my analysis.
But M structure or W structure??? that's the question
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@jakeworkingman
Very kind of you to say that. Will try to continue to provide value. Thanks!
I have a feeling your graph is correct however I feel like the wave C of the correction won’t last too long. Too many whales that can make too much money to not pump the price again sooner than later. There’s more attention to BTC now than there was in 2013 so they will be able to manipulate the price faster due to more people being in it now.
Yeah, let's see how it plays out. Hoping for a shorter correction.
I would get out of bitcoin, and switch to alternative currencies. Bitcoin has a lot of network congestion, causing the transaction times to be very slow. It currently costs $15 to transfer bitcoin to another wallet. It's based on 2009 technology, that has a lot of problems. It takes the worlds most powerful computers to mine efficiently. I think it will be replaced by something better.
If the developers can successfully improve bitcoin with faster and cheaper transactions with side chain tech etc then I don't believe we're gonna see any other coin come near Bitcoin. It has a huge first mover advantage that will be hard to beat. However there will be other coins/platforms that have other functions that could get as big as bitcoin in terms of price.
Really? I don't think it does ... the fees are greatly lowered recently, and the transaction times are actually quite quick. Bitcoin also has the best developers working on it, and is the most established. As Bitcoin goes, so do alternative currencies. I wouldn't be so quick to ditch bitcoin
I agree to @zhangster
No matter what, BTC is still the primary locomotive of the crypto rail. It may get secondary after some time, but not now. It is still to early to write off the BTC.
Bittrex is going to open USD markets but this is one minor thing. When it will be available broadly and when people will be able to buy any coin they want without BTC, than we may say that BTC can pull back and give up the BOSS title.
Why BTC is not destined to die soon? Because:
And yes, one more thing:
Banning credit card purchases makes me to think, that mining is still the best way to get cryptos.
I agree with you. The only diffrence is the time frame. And is more of a hope.
I m hoping because it's a smaller degree wave 4 correction than it was in 2013 , that will take less time.
i think we will see an all time high this year with many currencies one thing the past doesn't show no matter what previous trends repeat is the amount of publicity that is being cast across all cryptocurrencies. and the tech and application behind blockchain are only getting better keep buying the dip IMO
Possible, let's see
Hi! Thank you for sharing. Just to add, have you tried to compare the other years? It might be a better reference if all the years will be overlaid on a single chart, that way we can see the correlation better. We can also analyze if there is really an annual cycle going on in cryptocurrencies. If you have tried that, care to share your findings? Thank you :)
Haven't tried that but will, thanks
If we don't break out soon, we could be in for a major dip again ... We've already tested the support line a couple times, a third time could spell disaster
Doesn't look too promising, that looks like another bear flag but what do I know ;)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/N8jVSZqy/
it depends on when you bought it, if you did when it cost 20.000$ then you are definitely "doomed" for some time :D
i think it will bounce back to this level though, but not very soon
True!
elated!
Sad news
umm nice post
i know its really hard to predict bitcoin market... how we are thinking might not be working....
btw your analysis is nice
hope u post more such wonderful post
Thanks
good post and very help me in my trading..
thanks @benkalashnikov
Glad I can help!
wow
thanks for sharing such a lovely post and educative
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Thank You! ⚜
My pleasure
We are not doomed, just have a little patient
Agree 100%
I think a big difference between 2018 and 2013 is Bitcoin is on the verge of major mainstream awareness. In 2013 it was still esoteric and confined to tech world early adopters.
I’d personally hope for a larger scale fractal of 2017 rather than a quick return to nearly 20k. A quick return and then a years long correction would suggest that crypto is a long way from mainstream acceptance unless other currencies begin to decouple from BTC during this correction.
Thanks for the TA! Definitely a scenario to have awareness of.
Yeah that's why I find it hard to believe that we're heading for a long correction. My technical analyses usually are more correct than my fundamentals, so we'll see
The problem is that if you have bitcoins in your wallet the only thing you can do now is to leave it there and forget until the better times
bitcoin is ingaged in so many sites and become famous day by day i hope it ll good future for every one
Dear @benkalashnikov. Please try this exercise using a log scale graphic. You will have different story. But for sure completing cycle 1 will lead us into a loooonng correction pathway.
Will try that
My opinion, just base on price history isn't enough for prediction, because of different context, events in that time aren't same events are at present.
For example, in past, there wasn't ban from government & bank for cryptocurrency market, but they're doing now.
hold
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