On first glance this chart looks almost identical to bitcoin.
However, look closer.
It's a chart of the Nasdaq stock market during the late 90's and early 2000's.
Bitcoin's recent price action can be seen here:
As you can see both had an exponential price rises followed by a pretty severe crash.
What is interesting is the percentages of the crashes.
As you can see the Nasdaq dropped by about 75% from peak to trough on that line chart listed above.
If you take the bitcoin peak to it's trough, you get about a 70% drop.
The Nasdaq prices ultimately bounced off those lows and showed some support around the 2000 mark, which is roughly 60% off the highs.
Bitcoin is currently showing support around the $8,000 level, which is about 60% off the highs as well.
Are you seeing some similarities?
Interestingly enough, it took the Nasdaq about 8 years to do what Bitcoin did in about 8 months.
Which means Bitcoin is moving much faster than markets did about two decades ago.
Given all that, what did the Nasdaq do next?
As you can see the Nasdaq did eventually recover and go on to make new highs.
However, it took about 15 years.
Given that bitcoin seems to be moving significantly faster, can we expect prices to recover a lot quicker?
I would think so.
Given the speed of both of those moves, it looks like bitcoin is moving roughly 10x the speed of the nasdaq.
If that were to hold true, it would take roughly 18 months for bitcoin to reach those old highs.
Which would mean, bitcoin would hit $20k again some time in June of 2019.
I happen to think it will happen about 6 months before that, about December of this year, but we will see.
Either way, buying now seems to be like the right play, if there is any pattern to be gleaned from the last major market bubble.
This post for meant for entertainment purposes only. Do not take any of it as investment advice.
Keep also in mind that the tech-bubble in the 90's was mostly USA money, while bitcoin is a global phenomenon, so it makes perfect sense that the recovery will play itself out over a much shorter period of time.
Hmm. do you think you can predict the future from the past? I am skeptical. The comparison is interesting but cryptocurrency is not the same as stocks.
I think you can predict the future by considering the past because human nature never changes. Everything works in cycles. The difference is that the old system is bleeding into the new one (cryptocurrency) market.
Interesting article! Checkout @cryptobroye for more bitcoin info and analysis. Im sure there's a lot we can learn from each other!
oh yes man but i dont think soo but thanx for the info keep sharing man 😍
Very interesting post.
I see the similarity , funny that bitcoin does it faster while a lot of people are talking about a bubble. In my opinion trading in crypto's is the same as trading in stocks.. Only crypto's are better LOL
It's great to think about and speculate where it's going and when, but the truth is that we really have no idea.
I would absolutely love to dump all of the spare money I have into blockchain right now and it's definitely at a good buy level, but I think it's important to be realistic about the risks involved and understand there's a chance that this doesn't happen, the same way that it didn't reach 50K as some people had predicted and how it didn't drop below 5K as some had also predicted.
I love what you've written out here and the research you've put in here nevertheless and I appreciate your post.
Invest wisely. <3 Happy valentines day.
Thanks for a very interesting post! It is interesting to compare the past with the present situation. Information is moving quickly these days and the block-chain technology is a disruptive technology. The big question as I see it. How quickly will block-chain technology reach mass adoption? I think it would have been more interesting to compare the whole cryptocurrency market with the stock market. The cryptocurrency and tokens market cap compared to the stock market. I would rather compare Bitcoin ( BTC ) to an individual company on the stock market. Even if Bitcoin disappears there are other block-chain technologies which can replace it.
One thing the NASDAQ did not have that bitcoin has is halving events...2020 and 2024 are going to SPIKE the F*@$ out of bitcoin just wait and see for yourselves....better yet get a piece of the action
I agree. This is a good time to buy.
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Not just Bitcoin, looks like a majority of the altcoins out there. One good peak followed by a slow and steady drop... I would say it's mostly due to the politics and legal bodies governing. Once it's more openly adopted we should start seeing new peaks again.