Bitcoin has sold off from record highs after encountering key resistance confluence at 6200. 4 Hour RSI failed to confirm the new highs and the combination of the long term channel top and key fib extension was just too much:
Pair is currently trading at 5750 from as low as 5700, completely negating Friday's breakout. Further weakness would target the next support zone in the 5450-5530 zone. A break below 5450 would risk a flat/near-flat correction towards 5100.
We need a 4 hour close back above 5920 to shift focus back to the top side.
Update - As per the comments section, pair seems to have found support on the hourly:
Good explanations
I had to read this over multiple times before I understood (ahah im a beginner to analysis).
Do you think people oversold at the break? And when you say a 4 hour term what does that mean?
Hey Cheech, sorry this post was a little wonky.
I think it is getting harder and harder for the pair to find willing buyers as it goes up.
This is a 4 hour chart so each candle represents 4 hours of time. When I say "4 Hour RSI failed to confirm the new highs" - do you see the little chart down the bottom? That is RSI, the Relative Strength Index.
Do you see how that indicator shows a lower high even though price made a new record high? Generally speaking, in a healthy bullish market, they both would have made new highs together.
I see it now, very informative. Definitely going to educate myself using your posts, atleast ill familiarise myself with the terminology. It was well written mate 😃
Thanks Cheech - give me a shout whenever something is unclear. I usually try to keep them less wonky, but it is difficult sometimes.
Great analysis again thank you. As you mentioned, the correction started already. Not sure what to expect now : a reversal trend with BTC dropping below supports line or just a retracement and BTC following its bullish trend to go back to the top resistance line.
It's hard to say especially now with this crazy market lol
Happy trading =)
Yeah exactly, things have been mad this past week - pair seems to be finding a bid now on the hourly - see if 57 holds:
I think this is just a little hiccup and everything should be OK. If 57 does go, I expect 5450 to hold.
Agree with you =). Will see my friend
Agreed. This soon before the hard fork its unlikely to go downhill.
i think BTC can go to the channel botton
The channel bottom or the mid-point? The channel bottom isn't until 4100. Doubt we see that again any time soon.
i think the bottom ... now beggining good times for heavy moves....
:)
Hahahaha I hope you're wrong!
If it flash-crashed there right now and stayed there til 9am Sydney, I'd owe my broker $4000 USD.
what do you think about DECENT DCT/BTC?...
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Awwww shucks, thanks @scooter77
After such a big move, some consolidation is normal....I look at the top chart and see that huge green candle from a few days ago...that extended things quickly.
It pulled back to the zone of previous resistance....will it hold? If it does, we might be it blast through the 6200....
Profit taking made a lot of sense at around the 6000 range.
Yeah I'm kind of stuck because I'm trading with a CFD broker so they are shut, other wise I prop would of taken half at 62 yesterday.
And yeah looking at volume, this sell off don't have much in it compared to that big green one.
What is your intuition telling you. Major pullback by breaking down through support or do you think the bulls are still in charge and this is just a breather.
To me, it doesnt "feel" like a trend reversal....just profit taking after a big move up.
IMO it looked real nasty before on the 4H and Daily, but 4H will look good if this candle closes higher, which would make the daily look a lot better too. My gut says this wedge breaks higher not lower:
I think you're right and this doesn't feel like a reversal - false breaks -> reversals tend to be much more violent and decisive!
Especially reversals to the downside....to the upside they tend to be slower...but a top tends to see a hard and sudden movement south.
Yep, this BS is ongoing, but the lack of speed suggests consolidation rather carnage. Potential bull flag on the hourly:
Not sure if you are based in the US or not, but if not, you should have a crack in my demo trading/investing comp
G'day. Can I make a useful suggestion?
Everytime I see Bitcoin declining in a chart I do 2 things.
This generally fixes the problem. Then I just wait until it heads back up again and complain that I didn't buy more in the last dip!
So just....... DIP & HODL & LOL.
Hahahaha great idea - but I'm trading with 20:1 leverage so it's not quite that simple!
Nah.......I'd have to invest in a Pacemaker if I did stuff like that nowadays!
Most of my investment decisions are much smaller these days and normally my "analysis" is a good long think and a couple of beers. So far it works well.
BTC will start to crash after the fork these coming 25th. Altcoin will start rise again.
Seeing as you speak with such certainty and can obviously predict the future, I assume you'll be taking a 20:1 leveraged short position on the 25th?
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