Bitcoin has recovered from its major loss earlier in the week, but is encountering strong selling interest below 6000. As things stand, I see significant risk of a lower high here, followed by a repeat of the August-September price action:
Back in September, Bitcoin set a new record high just shy of 5000, before carving a lower high and correcting sharply towards the channel floor, some 2000 points lower. Of course this correction was largely driven by China risk, but the current structure looks eerily similar. If this scenario plays out, BTCUSD could trade as low as 4500 before (hopefully) resuming higher.
If we zoom in, we can see pair has just printed a Shooting Star reversal candle:
A retest of the lows looks extremely likely at this point. Pair could still find a bid there, but the chart looks pretty ominous at the moment. On the bright side, I'd love an opportunity to get long again below 5000!
UPDATE: May as well put my money where my mouth is - have entered short.
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I went to the sidelines just before the BTG fork, but there is no way I'd be caught short. I agree with you that I favour downside ahead but a lot is going to hinge on the SegWit2x news and a blow-off top is still a possibility if people go mad for more "free coins"
PS - Take a look at Bitcoin Cash. Catching a bid right now and could be a big mover if SegWit2x looks like a flop as the big block supporters will then move fully to support BCH.
Yeah I wasn't mad enough to hold it over the weekend - just took 100 points and ran. We still have a good two weeks before here and the next fork so plenty room for lower. I'd be happy to buy a signal at the lows though!
BCH actually looks like quite good, though reminds me a little of all the times the STEEM chart looked "good" lol
Agree though, Bitcoin needs to advance tech wise, it is already obsolete. People will move on if this isn't addressed.and rally will become bubble.
Good move playing it safe over the weekend. This is one of those times where fundamentals will overwhelm technicals if we get the right (or wrong) news development.
BCH is up 14% today according to CMC and is the only top 10 crypto to be in the green. I really should have bought some. Would love to see you add BCH to your technical analysis of Bitcoin for the next couple of weeks while this SegWit2x fork plays out in particular it will be very relevant.
Agree...just wonder what will be the next panic sell. Interesting to watch and prepared to buy at the right bottom
Nice spotting on that one, it does look spooky! Tight stops in place✔️
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What if it will continue to rise over $7000 when the hardfork takes place?
Just on a gut feeling level, if it gets that high it would seem to me that there would be a deeper correction. With more invested there could be a bigger panic when as the price drops, resulting in a bigger dip. Purely speculation, but I would not be surprised.
Well, I can't wait to see :)
I think it will only correct for a week or 2 .. but great post .
I completely agree. Will be a good time to inject some more capital in when it gets down into those numbers, I think it may even get as low as 4200
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I can see a repeat of the head and shoulders pattern too. This is very similar to the price action back in August. I’m targeting around 5000 as the bottom should the h&s situation play out. Would love to get in at or below $5000 before hopefully another strong rebound after a breakdown to the right shoulder bottom!
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