I think there are too many moving parts to make accurate predictions of the direction of cryptos. I really think what we are seeing is the slow but steady breakdown of all fiat monetary systems trying to find their true value (zero). With so much automation around the corner, the gold and silver markets kinda fucked up IMO, and the politics of the world being what they are right now, the amount of chaos built into all of our systems (especially monetary) makes it increadibly hard to make an accurate prediction of where things are headed.
All that being said, I think you might be right. I think the inverse is true though. Its not that BTC is moving up per se, but that fiat is moving down as more and more people realize it's not going to be a stable store of value in the long run, and it's easier to hide crypto transactions from the prying eyes of whatever government you suffer under.