According to the Swiss researchers, according to "Metcalf's Law," the market value of this cryptocurrency will not be able to maintain its growth rate as the growth rate of new active Bitcoin users slows down.
Metcalf's law states that the value of the network grows at the speed of the square of the number of users. Spencer Whitley and Didier Sonet, Professor of Entrepreneurship Risk at the ETH Zurich, said in a paper dated March 16th that the promotion of this law will limit the market value of Bitcoin to no more than $77 billion at the end of the year. .
This was a decrease of 41 billion U.S. dollars from the closing market value of 118 billion U.S. dollars on Monday (April 2), a decrease of 35%.
In the past one year, Bitcoin has risen more than 13 times. However, “the heights are not overwhelming”, and once the “yellow gowns” bitcoin seems to encounter a dark period this year, falling into the abyss of plunge.
As the largest cryptocurrency at current market value, Bitcoin plunged 45% in the first three months of 2018. The previous trading day approached the $7,000 mark.
According to CoinDesk, from January 1 to March 30, bitcoin prices plummeted by 45% and market value was wiped out by $114.9 billion, the worst quarterly record since mid-2010. The best performing quarter was in 2013, when bitcoin prices soared by 599%.
Looking ahead, Swiss researchers said that bitcoin prices have been substantially overestimated, but not unprecedented, and research shows that Bitcoin will experience many months of shocks.
Digital currency proponents insist that once the regulatory attitude is clear, Bitcoin prices will rise, or even hit new highs. And they expect that the underlying blockchain technology adopted by Bitcoin will change the world like the Internet.
However, some academic researchers stated that mathematical analysis of Bitcoin prices shows a predictable path.
They claim that “we believe that people should not focus on the instantaneous and unpredictable triggers themselves, but should pay attention to the increasingly unstable state of the bubble market and prepare for adjustments.”
In addition, some analysts have pointed out that according to the most reliable technical analysis method that predicts the price of Bitcoin so far, Bitcoin has already fallen below the key support level of US$7,700. If it further drops below US$6,000, the downtrend may further deepen.