“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure as hell rhymes.“
This does not only hold true for global historic events but especially for charting patterns of many asset classes. Coming from years of investing in safe haven assets as gold and silver I am seeing a great amount of overlap between technical aspects of gold with Bitcoin ($BTC) and silver with Etherium ($ETH). In addition, as BTC can be seen of as a digital form of gold, hence safe haven asset, I expect certain similarities in behavioral between traders of both assets that therefore can be found back as patterns in the charts.
Since the fork issues between BTC and BCC have now passed, BTC has jumped several folds higher. Although people are screaming for it to reach the moon the whole time and want to become a millionaire within 2 months, there is no single asset that only goes up.
The $BTC pattern from the last weeks caught my eye as it reminded me of something I have seen before in gold. Although Bitcoin generally doesn’t move in similar ratio’s (percentage) as gold, their patterns look pretty much alike.
Let's have a look below.
BTC daily chart up to now
Gold monthly chart up to 2007
As you can see above there is quite some overlap in the period up to 2007 in gold with BTC to date.
So what happened next in gold was the famous 2008 dump of about 30% from ~ $1000 to $700 (see below).
Gold monthly chart up to 2009 (with drop)
Based on the overlap in pattern and same fading of momentum for the bulls I expect BTC to drop to around $2800 (see below). This will be not only technically but also fundamentally good for its bull run as some over-crazed to the moon-ers are shaken out. It is very normal that this kind of philological behavior happens before a solid second leg up. Therefore I would welcome this short-term dip in sentiment, to cool down before another heated run.
BTC Chart - short term expectations
I expect this dip is already starting to play out. Therefore this will be a good time to sell your BTC to buy them back around the $2800-$3000 area. A good strategy will be to buy back in batches in this price range.
Since the crypto markets tend to move in a higher order magnitude than other markets both time wise and in percentage, I think this dip will take about 4 weeks in total before we start to move up again. This also coincides with the end of holiday periods around the world and paychecks getting in, therefore more probability of people buying with both hands.
What the BTC price will do after this short-term dip?? This I will explain in more detail in my next item expected in the first week of September. Also follow my upcoming analysis about Etherium the coming week as well!
STAY TUNED!
CoinDude
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DISCLAIMER:
Everything I write here is my personal opinion, derived from years of experiences in trading. I follow my own opinion and encourage everyone else to do so as well. Therefore when you do take my opinion as an investing advice I do not take any responsibilities for any losses you potentially make both financially or physiologically.
Thank you for the analysis.
One thing I would caution with the comparison between gold and btc, gold was a mature market while, many believe, btc is just in its infancy. Sure a pull back is in order and 30% is nothing in the btc world. That said, I am not sure we can draw the correlation.
Indeed there are some millennia of maturation differences ;) between them, but I think trading patterns do not directly follow these guidelines. That said, I do think other (younger) cryptos have way too less market cap to perform any trustworthy technical analysis on. From a technical perspective, I do feel BTC is a mature market at the moment, ETH is on its way.
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