The ecash treasure chest came to the Wusang game this past October. There is an cache of ecash hidden in the game. Ecash is a way to send bitcoin sats (think Lightning Network, but not Lightning). Each day, I've wondered, "Is today the day the treasure will be found?"
The odds of finding the treasure cache are low...users have only a 1 in 10,000 chance. But, that's the idea. This is to be a rare event. So, you might wonder, "How long until someone actually finds it?"
To figure that, we need to do a little math. Understand, I've had no training in probability and I may be wrong here, but I'm doing my best! To estimate the "when?", we need to use the daily rate of "mining" HBIT...the way that Hivers "look" for the treasure. The current 30-day average is about 38 HBIT mined per day.
Going back to October 21, 2024 when the ecash treasure was set up, and tracing along until today, it's been about 100 days exactly. The mining numbers then were about 30/day and have been creeping upward lately. 30 times 100 gives us 3,000 tries at finding the treasure. So, at 3,000 out of 10,000. It still is no surprise that the treasure has not been found. When someone tries to find the treasure, the odds are still 1 in 10,000 regardless of any number of fails or successes prior. The prior 3,000 fails don't make the chances any better going forward.
But, still, we should be getting close. A way to look at it might be to take a 6-sided die as an example. Suppose I want to roll a 4 to "win." I roll and get:
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- not a 4
- On this roll, the odds are still 1-in-6 to get a 4, the previous fails have not changed those odds, but, we must be getting close.
Rolling dice like this and looking for a 4, we'd expect that in six rolls we'd hit on a 4 at some point.
With HBIT/Wusang, with 10,000 tries, we'd expect to hit on the treasure some time in the 10,000 attempts or soon thereafter. At the current rate HBIT/Wusang is going, 10,000 tries should occur some time around July of 2025. Of course, the ecash cache might be found any time before then, maybe today, or after, maybe long after. Who knows?
To sum, I expect the ecash treasure cache should be found by this summer, by July 2025.
But, whenever. Pinning down the time isn't possible, what's known is that someone is going to find it.
- Wusang ecash cache update and how much is in there? (Note: it's not a huge amount, but it is actual bitcoin satoshis.): https://peakd.com/hive-159259/@crrdlx/updating-wusang-ecash-cache-treasure-supply
- Ecash how to: https://peakd.com/bitcoin/@crrdlx/ecash-via-cashume
- How to look for the treasure, see: https://wusang.vercel.app/pages/play.html
I go by @crrdlx or "CR" for short. See all my links or contact info at https://linktr.ee/crrdlx.
In a yes/no scenario you can go with the other option: What are the chances of noone finding it within X tries? And then look at the inverse.
!LUV
(1/10) sent you LUV. | tools | discord | community | HiveWiki | <>< daily@hannes-stoffel, @wesphilbin
Of course, I didn't think to use AI to help me with my probability. I asked ChatGPT, Google Gemini, and Microsoft Copilot. They did much fancier math than I can do. However, there was no consensus. I would have thought that a probability problem like this would have a "correct" answer. Each AI sounded very authoritative on their own, yet they were not in agreement. Makes me question the whole AI thing at this point. Their responses:
ChatGPT: Based on the calculations, you should expect a winner around October 26, 2025.
Gemini: Therefore, a reasonable estimate for the date of a winner is around July 11, 2025.
Copilot: So, by around May 12, 2025, you should expect a winner.
@crrdlx...
!LUV
!HBIT
That "try again" truly is the most reliable, most consistent option!
!hbit
(4/1) You mined .9 🟧 HBIT and the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. You can receive 100% of the HBIT by replying to one of your own posts or comments. When you mine HBIT, you're also playing the Wusang: Isle of Blaq game. 🏴☠️ | tools | wallet | discord | community | daily <><
What's more, you found a 🟡 Blaq gold coin (BLAQGOLD) as a bonus treasure token!
There is a treasure chest of bitcoin sats hidden in the game. Someone will find it. Happy hunting. 😃
You can see your random number generated in the Discordexplorer A, explorer B, or take a look at your wallet. Read about Hivebits (HBIT) or read the story of Wusang: Isle of Blaq.Success! @crrdlx server, #hbit-wusang-log channel. Check for bonus treasure tokens by entering your username at a block explorer
(2/10) sent you LUV. | tools | discord | community | HiveWiki | <>< daily@crrdlx, @wesphilbin
(4/1) You mined .9 🟧 HBIT and the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. You can receive 100% of the HBIT by replying to one of your own posts or comments. When you mine HBIT, you're also playing the Wusang: Isle of Blaq game. 🏴☠️ | tools | wallet | discord | community | daily <><
What's more, you found a ⚪ BLAQ pearl (BLAQ) as a bonus treasure token!
There is a treasure chest of bitcoin sats hidden in the game. Someone will find it. Happy hunting. 😃
You can see your random number generated in the Discordexplorer A, explorer B, or take a look at your wallet. Read about Hivebits (HBIT) or read the story of Wusang: Isle of Blaq.Success! @wesphilbin server, #hbit-wusang-log channel. Check for bonus treasure tokens by entering your username at a block explorer
The chance that someone will win the treasure cache from mining !HBIT can be anywhere from today or later than this year. 🤯😆🤓
Have some !DIY with your !LUV! 😁
(1/10) sent you LUV. | tools | discord | community | HiveWiki | <>< daily@crrdlx, @savvyplayer
(4/1) You mined .9 🟧 HBIT and the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. You can receive 100% of the HBIT by replying to one of your own posts or comments. When you mine HBIT, you're also playing the Wusang: Isle of Blaq game. 🏴☠️ | tools | wallet | discord | community | daily <><
What's more, you found a 🟡 Blaq gold coin (BLAQGOLD) as a bonus treasure token!
There is a treasure chest of bitcoin sats hidden in the game. Someone will find it. Happy hunting. 😃
You can see your random number generated in the Discordexplorer A, explorer B, or take a look at your wallet. Read about Hivebits (HBIT) or read the story of Wusang: Isle of Blaq.Success! @savvyplayer server, #hbit-wusang-log channel. Check for bonus treasure tokens by entering your username at a block explorer
You can query your personal balance by
@savvyplayer just sent you a DIY token as a little appreciation for your comment dear @crrdlx! Feel free to multiply it by sending someone else !DIY in a comment :) You can do that x times a day depending on your balance so:!DIYSTATS@crrdlx, I paid out 0.020 HIVE and 0.006 HBD to reward 2 comments in this discussion thread.