I agree with your point of view. I think the impact that Bitcoin ETFs will have on the market will be very different compared to the one we had with futures a few months ago.
Bitcoin futures are merely speculation and there is no direct connection with the underlying asset. For ETFs, especially the physically backed ones, will be different. Usually, in traditional markets, they are not seen as speculation, but as a form of investment. The presence of ETFs on the market will help a lot to spread the word of bitcoin to the masses, in my opinion. And hopefully, they will push the price up again.
Yes, I think this next wave will be driven primarily by institutions, but I am sure there will be a large amount of retail sprinkled in there as well. After all, they won't want to miss the train twice.