Hi Steemers... So Bitcoin has been selling off recently... The two main reasons I can see for this is:
- Binance had an attempted hack and
- Mt Gox trustees have been selling bitcoin to pay back their owners
On the first point, ALL FUNDS ARE SAFE... and I think this is already behind us... Props to Binance for a great response and a secure exchange. ππ
The second point is more concerning... On the graph below you can see how the Mt Gox selling has been correlated with large drops in the Bitcoin price ππ. For those of you that don't know Mt Gox was an exchange in Japan that was hacked a few years back. Some of the Bitcoin has been recovered and so is being sold to pay back the owners. Here is some of the dates and amounts of the recent sales:
2017-12-18 -- 2,000 BTC
2017-12-22 -- 6,000 BTC
2018-01-17 -- 8,000 BTC
2018-01-31 -- 6,000 BTC
2018-02-05 -- 6,000 BTC
2018-02-05 -- 6,000 BTC
2018-02-05 -- 6,000 BTC
Ok when the Bitcoin was stolen the amount was roughly $400 million... So far about $400 million has been sold however there is still about 160,000 coins more still in trust. You can see this here:
http://gaelb.alwaysdata.net/MTgox_watch_CW/index.html
If they keep selling... The price will continue going lower... We have to wait and see what the trustees of Mt Gox do. I think a reasonable strategy is to pay the $400 million back, which they already have from the recent sales, and then to proportion back the remaining bitcoin to all the holders. Lets see how this evolves... ππ stay tuned
It's right about time people stop treating crypto as one entity, which it isn't. There are great projects and there are chancers who ride the wave and both react in the same way - Bitcoin drops - all drop, Bitcoin rises - all rises. It's really right time to start being picky in this market, as there will be one day when good and proved projects / coins will recover after big drops while others won't. Trends decoupling of cryptos is only a matter of time.
agree with you.... but during times of stress... the correlation in markets goes to 1 as with equities in 07/08 ... crypto markets are not mature enough yet
True, I guess the volatility is caused by still low market share and uncertainty of the future.
Trading pairs have a lot to do with why everything moves together, if we wish to avoid this then BTC must be replaced as a correlation of value. Look into what Russia is doing with legislation, all crypto will be valued in their own crypto. This makes me think that the correlation between price and value will no longer rely strictly on BTC volatity, yet if implemented incorectly it could result in devaluing their own crypto rupal.
It all depends on how much money Russians will decide to put to backup their crypto. I guess more money they put, the better for the whole crypto world!
My understanding is that it will not be backed but rather honoured at a 1-1 value crypto - fiat, this puts the fiat in place of profiting from volatility of crypto and hedging against sanctions influencing their current financial situation.
Look at Korea, street value is way higher then institutional value and is precisely the reason coincap delisted all Korean exchanges from the market aggregate. With access limited to the general public(bank restrictions) you could simply buy and sell on the street for a profit, then that individual would try sell for further profit driving the price way above its starting values trickling back into exchanges through the speculative mentality βwell its worth that much on the streetβ.
I can see without centralization of their crypto and control of trading pairs this could result in a devalueing of both currencies, regulations will be the deciding factor, will we see a new sector on the financial boards around the world? I think so!
You are absolutely right bro...
Hack and selling bitcoin to pay back their owners are the main reason...
I appreciate your analysis @crypto-n-custard
thank you Sir
MT. Gox kicking people in the balls once again
ja agree... why couldn't they just proportion the bitcoin back to people rather then selling it out... makes no sense... most of the people I would guess will still want to own bitcoin... this way they going to get their cash back and then go buy Bitcoin again... unnecessary volatility
Because if they can maniupulate the price down, them or their associates can get in cheap. Simple market manipulation.
They are probably going to keep on selling until the debts are payed of. The good it is that at least we know that this happens and that information is public.
I agree with this view now after a bit more research... I expect they will sell down all the assets and return the total to the owners... these owners might end up buying the bitcoin back... causing unnecessary volatility
Like how this article describes the big picture without a ton of unsubstantiated speculation. Talking about forest not just trees like the over-analyzed TA. Yep there are economics involved
thanks
Some people think that this is bad but on the other hand this might be the best time to buy as its a good bargain price and I would expect it to go up again
definitely π
πππ
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Insane how those all line up perfectly with times at which corporations need to get numbers in order for their financial holdings, moving forward this should be seen as a positive.
Will they wait for the next bull run and try recover fiat value as with investors or just redistribute remaining holdings amongst clients? Smart move would be to redistribute yet I have feeling it will be the opposite with another crash resulting from further sell off. The sell off at higher value will give room for recouping profits, do they wish to save face at this point for the next endeavour?
the fact that they sold around 6-8k tells me they quite price insensitive ... i.e. they want to return the fiat and they will sell all the assets to do so... I could be wrong tho just my opinion
Thanks for sharing your analysis. If you had to speculate, do you think the trustee will maintain this sell action or will it taper off as they are putting downward pressure on the price?
my personal opinion after a bit more research is that they might continue to sell everything... if they were going to return the coins or a proportion thereof they would have never sold any to begin with... i think they sell it all and return the fiat... this might do this over a period of months... again my opinion only
They should have made the sell OTC, or is it that they wanted to screw the price. Maybe they shorted BTC on kraken or bitmex and made the price crash to multiply the gains....