You are absolutely right. Might be hard for altcoins to be independent of BTC given its wider adaptation and use by far as compared to the others. Furthermore the market is still young.
An increase in steem to $4 within 1 to 3 years, I would consider a great achievement, given the unlimited supply.
Steem is progressing nicely though and in terms of platform growth. I would say, "Its picking up more steem ;-).