Bitcoin is attempting to extend its recovery, but it is likely to face a strong resistance from the current levels to the $9,500 mark, from the downtrend line, the 20-day EMA and the horizontal resistance.
There are two possibilities – the price will either break out or turn down from here. Do we know for sure which one will happen? No. So, we should be ready for both scenarios.
If the BTC/USD pair breaks out of $9,500 and sustains for four hours, it confirms a breakout and we recommend long positions with a stop loss of $7,800. Our first target is a move to the 50-day SMA, which currently is at about $11,780. Above this, we might see a move to the resistance line of the descending channel.
Secondly, if the price turns down from $9,500 and breaks below $7,800, a slide to $7,000 is likely.
As we don’t have a confirmation of a bottom yet, it is recommended to keep the position size only 50 percent of usual.