Fantastic video Haejin, easily my favourite TA post from you in the couple of months I've been following you. Thank you so much for your insights.
I've only been playing this bear trend with about 40% of my stack, just trying to play some alts for small gains here and there, since even in a bear trend some alts will inevitably see some nice moves.
Unfortunately, I think I've only managed to break even, so this could just be a big fat waste of time lol.
I'm still being cautious though, and your TA has helped my own TA immensely! Personally, I think BTC needs to hit the mid 2000s before it can continue the run up past the ATH.
My thoughts on all of this:
To reach $6000+ we're going to need a MASSIVE influx of money into the markets and as we know, the smart institutional money doesn't like to buy at highs. How many billions of dollars do we need to breach the last high?
BTC hype has died down in the media so we won't be getting that frenzy of mom and pop investors any time soon. Everything right now just screams bull trap before the healthy correction to the long term trend line. If things get cheaper, more people can buy and we'll get a nice influx of money into the markets.
At the BTC peak we had about $170bn market cap, we're around the mid 130s right now. That's a big gap. The overall market volume is also very low so that doesn't give me too much hope of a huge rally any time soon either.
But all that being said, crypto is crazy, maybe that market will just explode and we hit those new ATH instead of correction. Either way I think we all win in the end by staying informed and having a plan for both potential paths. :)
I had the same view and was shorting BTC on 5 times leverage using most my portfolio. Unfortunately things changed and I closed all the positions when the uptrend began. I think we might see a short term uptrend. Maybe the mid $2000 correction will be kicked down the road and we'll see 7K followed by a catastrophic crash.
Yeah I'm fine with either scenario. If we run up then we can ride the waves up, if we crash we can have the cash on hand to buy at rock bottom prices. What a time to be alive.