So judging economic trends in the past there's one very real thing that could potentially happen. I don't think anyone really wants a split and even if there is a split the old network will be inefficient most likely and it just wouldn't make sense for the larger stakeholders, no matter what their opinion of segwit is.
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So what do I predict between then and now... I expect a pump over the next week or so up to around 3100 or close to the 3000 mark. I then expect a MAJOR correction, one of the biggest we've seen as "segwit isn't happening" will be the major fears among the community. The coin could even fall back to 2000 levels over the course of the week leading up to it.
Then the day of August 1st, BOOM! Segwit miraculously gets put through and there'll be a huge initial pump (could last days or weeks or months with fluctuations but general uptrends). Something is planned all along by those who decide but make the illusion that it won't happen to profit from it.
Think about it, what's the way that the powers that control this to make the most money out of the situation? Most of them are large stakeholders in bitcoin and if they were to create a scenario of volatility and uncertainty and indicate that segwit wouldn't happen, this would leave room for a massive pump which may last months (like back in March).
Now I'm not saying this is a prediction that I 100% support! This is a theory that I've come up with judging other markets and particularly currencies. People have been known to create uncertainty and volatility to drive down prices before the massive news. Even if something like this happens but a less extreme version, it will still make a lot of people a lot of money.
Don't take this as 100% happening, it's a far out there theory that I haven't seen predicted before. Personally myself I'm staying away from Bitcoin until August 1st and I'll see what plays out. But it'll be an interesting one none-the-less!
There's also a real possibility for things to drag onto November so be careful either way.
What predictions do you have?
My thoughts is that segwit will suceed and no splitting fork will happen. There is too much bitcoin at stake for that to happen. However, the panic spreaded by some people is making me doubt a bit.
Depending on what the situation is when approaching the activation, I will decide to put my bitcoin offline or not.
Exactly what I am predicting, and leaving room for many to make major profit. However, if Segwit does not succeed I would worry about Bitcoins future
Segwit will succeed, but it is too early imo to claim there will be no HF. Personally, I believe there is that chance. I'd rather not see it happening, as it would rock markets even more.
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STOPsegwit on 1st aug will not cause any fork. Its just an additional protocol that gives more possibilities.
The hardfork can happen later this year with segwit X.
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