Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.
My summary - short-term (next 24h) sentiment: bullish (last: neutral)
- We pumped to 7'400 and smashed the strong resistance at 6'800 making a new higher high.
- RSI on daily is getting close to oversold.
- It seems bulls are back. Only the volume is not that great.
- Next major resistances are 7'664 (MA128 daily) and 8'280 (MA50 weekly).
Bull scenario*:
- We made a new higher high.
- We smashed through strong resistance zone at 6'800
- Next will be to make another higher low.
- Get through 7'800 resistance.
- Volume needs to increase.
- We go towards the 30/50 week MA and break above it.
Bearish scenario*:
- We move up for one or two weeks into the death cross (30 and 50 MA weekly) at around 8'500 and than drop significantly.
- Alternate - bears are turning after the RSI gets oversold an make a lower low
- After breaking 5'800 a significant drop towards new lows in the range of 4'975 and 4'300.
*scenarios based on daily-candles - so around 4-14 days timeframe. See also definition section
Summary of targets/support/resistance of TAs
Short-term overview
mid- and long-term overview
- please refer to definition section for time-horizon.
- you can easily spot which analyst did an update
(block writing - grey ones don't have an update today).
Their changes are in light blue.
Helpful statistics:
monthly performances
- Added 2012 + 2013 on request.
- As 2012 and 2013 the % move are gigantic I added two averages. One without 2012 + 2013.
- June performance was very weak. With -14.8% clearly below the average of the last years. With 2013 this is the only negative month at all.
- July is a mixed bag - 2 year positive performance and 2 year of negative performance. 2012 and 2013 were positive though.
- The average is positive with 2.1% but that is mainly due to the bull rund 2017. The average incl. 2012and 2013 is even more positive. That is mainly due to the 40%+ spike in 2012 so I wouldn't rely on that.
So just looking at this table we probably facing another negative month.
News about the blog
- None
Analysts key statements:
Tone (neutral):
Quarterly chart: We are almost done with 1-4 correction. October / November could be the bottom.
Monthly: We are on 5 of 9 - looking for 4 month of downside. Which would bring us also to November as a bottom.
Also we never had a big reversal on this scale.
Short-term outlook:
- Weekly: We had a 9 - now we popped. The 9 was tricky as we had already 2 weeks of upside. The 1-4 correction to the upside could lead to the death cross at 8'300 ish. Still he doesn't see anything that tells the bear trend is over.
- Daily: Bitcoin is in a no trade zone. To become bullish we need to break the 6'800 area. MA 128 is a strong resistance which is at around 7'650.
He did also an interesting comparison of bitcoin to litecoin. Litecoin formed a Tringle - very clean and had a break down of it. The target is than the hight of the triangle which leads to a target close to 35 USD. Which is exactly the high of 2014 (weekly close) and close to the MA 200 (weekly).
Bitcoin broke also down from a giant triangle and could move similar to it. The target for bitcoin is around 3'200.
Litecoin triangle break down:
Bitcoin triangle break down:
@lordoftruth (bullish):
Conform 4H, Bitcoin price has completed its inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern and continues to fluctuate above 6'700,
so we are now waiting for the pattern's confirmation.
The Confirmation Line is located at 6'842, as breaching this level will provide positive factor, to lead to a climb towards 7'150 followed by 7'360.
The Expected Upmove remain valid conditioned by price stability above 6'420.
For Our Long Entry, we moved our SL from 6'039 to 6'300 ( break-even).
weekly
Stands the same and our major target of AB-CD Pattern around 4'300 still valid.
Todays trend is bullish. Trading between 6'420 and 7'050.
@ew-and-patterns (bullish):
Update on his count.
He sees it is either this
or this:
Scenario from older posts:
Bullish:
Bearish scenario: He sees a short term bounce up to 6'500 and than going down from there.
@passion-ground (neutral):
Still looking for clues as to the sustainability of the recent bear market lows. Thus far, basis the higher highs, and higher lows, we are the right track short-term.
He is still looking for clues how strong the bounce is. Higher highs and lower lows is a good start. But not yet we have broken through significant resistance levels. Next turn month is August, than January.
TradeDevils (bullish):
- bullish view - primary
We have a higher low - next step is to get a higher high.
He is expecting us to go up into stiff resistance at 7'000 - 7'100. From there a 0.5 correction to 6'500. If we go there in 3 waves that looks like a "must buy" as he sees us going up in wave 3 towards 7'800 after that.
The bearish view - Alternate - we go down from here to 5'900. This is based on the ew count as this being a wave 4 and now expecting wave 5 down. Also we have a fractal which almost looks identical (see picture).
Tyler Jenks (neutral):
Short term he only positions himself if he sees a move of the market of 5% in either direction. So at the moment he is neutral but seeing us based on consensio in a bearish market (daily/weekly).
The 7 MA weekly is below the 30 MA weekly and both are declining. That is a bear market by definition for him. Also the 30 MA is accelerating to the downside making it likely to cross the 50 MA in the near future. That would be another bearish sign for him.
UglyOldGoat (bullish):
Beside all analysts who seem to lean to the downside Ugly has a different opinion. He see that fear is influencing the view - looking on the pure technicals he sees based on the TD system
- Quarterly 3 candle correction from quarterly 9
- Weekly buy signaled based on a 9
- 8 hour buy signaled based on a 9
- 4 hour buy signaled based on a 9
IT's time to pull the trigger
The basis, relative strength, the timing indicators all say it is time to pull the trigger and risk 1st and 2nd quarter lows. Yes, if we break it will be hard but that is fear. . . everything else says this is a low risk time and place to be a buyer.
Reference table
| analyst | latest content date | link to content for details |
|---|---|---|
| Tone Vays | 17. July | here |
| @lordoftruth | 17. July | here |
| @ew-and-patterns | 16. July | here |
| @passion-ground | 09. July | here |
| @tradedevil | 17. July | here |
| Tyler Jenks | 05. July | here |
| UglyOldGoat | 12. July | here |
Definition
- light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
- sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
- The forecast time horizon of candles can be compared with approx. 4hr = 1-2 days; daily = 4-14 days; weekly = 4 - 14 weeks; monthly = 4 - 14 month.
- target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
- support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.
Educational links:
- From @ToneVays: Learning trading
- From @lordoftruth: Fibonacci Retracement
- From @philakonecrypto: Like in every post you find links to his amazing educational videos. For example here. In addition he has an online course which you can find here
- From @haejin: Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial
*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.
Thanks bro this information will really help me in leverage trading in bitmex..thanks very much
Amazing post but is it still possible for btc to reach $50k by year end?
No, I don't think so except we have extremely favorable news like Amazon accepting crypto of a large ETF, etc.
Anyway going up so quick would not be healthy IMO. Let's not repeat 2017 all over again and focus on 10K first, then 15K, 20K, maybe by the end of the year.
Unlike 2017, when you had ATH after ATH and everybody was in profit, this time there are a lot of bagholders who are likely to sell once they get into green, thus have a lot of resistance all the way to 20k. However, once we get again into ATH teritory, the moon is the limit. Personally, I expect a new parabolic run (unhealthy as it is) to begin in Q3-Q4 2019.
Bulls back in town?