STX: cryptoasset token valuation

I’ll try to keep it simple. I use the exchange equation to forecast STX token value (MV = PQ) from Stox platform.

We have to characterize:

M: future market cap
V: future velocity

-P*Q: transaction value

and then solve for M.

In the white paper, Stox reports that global market for sports betting was 50 billion dollars in 2016 growing steadily by at least 10% annually. Let’s start being too conservatives. Suppose 50 billion dollars is the whole TAM (total addressable market) — which is not, because there are also others betting areas, like finance, politics, etc.- we can assume a conservative TAM of ~80 billion market for 2020. If we suppose that Stox can get the 1% of that market (which again, is conservative), the future absorbed TAM will be 800M.

Since to operate in the platform people will need to stake tokens, we can assume that the token velocity will not be too high, and so, based on one of the last Satis report, I think we can assume a velocity of V=~30 (you can play with your prediction later).

Solving for M, I forecast a ~27 million USD market cap by 2020. Since there are N=57168793 tokens, I forecast a $0.47 per token (which with a 25% discounted annual rate gives a $0.3 present value).

Again, we only analyzed a conservative scenario. Including finance betting (daily trading volume tops $5.5 billion dollars), for example, I forecast a $11 STX value by 2020 (which with a 25% discounted annual rate gives a $7.46 present value).

Another strong fundamentals:

Stox platform is already online and it works really well
Unlike Augur, Stox UI is simple and user friendly
The airdrop incentive is getting too many users
It’s easy to create new prediction markets
The mobile app has been realized and it also works fine!
Disclaimer: I own STX (because I’m bullish in STX)