SUMMARY
I am a Technical Analyst and use Elliott Waves to carry out price pathway discovery. The most basic rule of Elliott Waves is that after five waves, there is a requisite three wave retracement. From a Big Picture perspective, Bitcoin is fast approaching the terminal end of the last fifth wave. This means extreme caution needs to be exercised! Please allow me to explain. I write this analysis to help and do no harm.
The chart below shows there remain probably less than $2,000 in price increase before wave 5 (blue circle) of v (white circle) of V (blue) becomes complete. Once Bitcoin hits $6,200 or so, that would mark the blue circled wave 3, followed by a correction to around $5,500 marked by blue circled 4 and then a final last hurrah rise to around $7,200 to $7,700 for the top. This top would represent the five wave completion (Capital blue roman numerals I, II, III, IV, V).
Since every five wave motive is followed by a three wave retracement, that correction pathway is shown by A,B,C (red). The red A wave down of the correction would surprise most, be swift, terrifying and unbelievable. I'm projecting Wave A's low to be around $2,900 and this could be characterized by sudden and massive inflow of sell orders that paralyze the exchanges and thus possibly cause a bidless market. Price gap downs could be common as well as lost or mistaken orders. Margin calls could become too many to handle and so exchanges might take drastic actions of freezing wallets or denying withdrawals. This Wave A (red) will be followed by Wave B up (red). During this temporary rise, fear sentiment will again start to be relieved and all's well messages might be put out by the cryptosphere leadership. Sentiment might even return to being partly euphoric. These are the common sentiment attributes of Wave B ups. Once Wave B completes, Wave C down will strike the final blow such that at its terminal end of the decline, Bitcoin could be outright hated by those who had loved it. Many could have their accounts wiped out by margin calls. Those who ran to altcoins to escape the downturn could also realize that it was to no avail. Governments will find greater ammunition to ram more regulation for the safety of the people. Perhaps some ICO founders accused of pump and dump schemes could also be struck with legal actions by the SEC. The calamity will be epic!
The Great Oracle of Omaha once said: "Be Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
At the terminal end of the A,B,C retracement, there will be some with the courage to buy bitcoins. These will have probably taken their profits at or near the terminal end of the Wave V top. These brave souls will know that buying when sentiment is so one sidedly negative towards Bitcoin is the best time to buy. They will buy quietly and calmly..with confidence, with discipline and experience.
The below chart is a logarithmic chart of Bitcoin's price. It shows that once the A,B,C (red) correction completes, it will represent the buying opportunity of a lifetime. It will be at this point where new zillionaires will be seeded. The new Roger Vers will be minted. This is because once the ABC correction completes, a trend turn will occur and this turn up will create new wealth to near unimaginable levels. The chart below shows $37,500 could be well within the post ABC correction milestones.
Please consider viewing the video analysis for full scope and details:
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If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
BTC Wallet - 19gHMJc9wi9KkP47wokz8y4cFNgz1kAAUE
ETH Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
LTC Wallet - LU1mEw1LHvffoWf9VDEVdP7Day4jv6VLqu
EOS Wallet - 0xf83641dbf1a53498eae6d0d568c969790da48a36
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
So your current prediction is that we have some months to go, and that it will pop somewhere in the first half of 2018?
I am keeping a close eye on this due to your posts
Nice analysis buddy and hope it will get an uptrend & reach higher destinations
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This is amazing! Clearly and eloquently stated. What a ride we are in for....
only ones that will hold are the ones that say hodl,
bitcoin is their GOD this cant be right!!
I'm sorry to say but if the count is correct, then it will flush away all the
BTC /crypto "experts" and some how I think that's a good thing ..
I agree. Most ‘experts’ in crypto have no idea how blockchain works or any of the concepts behind it. Most Alts are pure speculation vehicles offering nothing new. If we crash to these levels it will result in a massive clear out of ‘experts’ who have to go back and get real jobs again, whilst many Alts crash to zero. This will give a chance for true innovative development to take place.
Those that truely hold and don’t lose their nerve at 200 will be fine as current $5k coins will be worth $27k. Still an amazing gain in a few years. But what a ride.
Wow thank you!!
What is your opinion on ETH? It's been very calm these past days.
Great analysis!! So far the theory has proven what it is worth, so why shouldn't it continue to show the way... I still believe that bitcoin has the potential of reaching much higher prices, but it will take time..I'm in for the long run, waiting for mass—adoption to really kick in👍
Before that terrible/wonderful time, does one keep USD$ dry powder in the exchange or withdrawl it completely?
I will keep my funds in the bank. Actually in stocks.
@rjh thats the dilema I have. Itching to get back in but might be safer to withdraw cash into a ban while you can and then resend it to the exchange later ?
Thank you!
Could you please EW count FLiK?
hey haejin, Proper analysis, well stated.
got a thought when you showed the log graph arround minute 13 (+- 13m30). As shown in the log graph, wave 2 and wave 4 as indicated didn't retrace back to the prior level 4 of wave 1 and wave 3 as the theory would state.
Another example was the last retrace to 3000$ lvl, iso 2000 -2500$ (which would have been a text book example) when we're now doubting whether it is A or C of wave 4.
Keeping this in mind and pictured on the log graph, it would indicate a big retrace down but not to $500 but higher to 1500$? what's your thought?
I had to think about when i saw the previous ABC waves down.
Could be.
I watched the video and I can see this play out just like you charted it. Very insightful. The only thing I did not understand is your timing for selling your Alt coins near where you charted the new BTC highs. Won't the Alt coins all be way down with the swell in BTC price like they are now? I guess if the time frame for BTC's rise is stretched out over a number of months then it would not drag the alts down? I will look at more of your work and see if you have elaborated on the time else ware. Thanks for your work this will defiantly help me be more prepared no matter what happens.
I believe the Alts will remain phasic and go up with bitcoin
Good grief. That would be a huge dip.
Good presentation, as usual. However I would say the expectation of an ABC retracement to the 500 level seems a bit far fetched. That would represent a panic and most importantly a breaking of confidence on the fundamentals of the coin. But of course lets wait and not foresee the future.
Keep up the good work