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SUMMARY
Note: Short Update. We Koreans are in the Kimchi Making Season and I'm needed in the kitchen to wash all the cabbages!
Many Analysts are calling the $20k THE TOP. I disagree. My waves are shown below and associated target values:
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
Follow me on Twitter for Real Time Alerts!!
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If this blog post has entertained or helped you to profit, please follow, upvote, resteem and/or consider buying me a beer:
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
Wow tons of views @haejin!! Too bad people won't VOTE like they should. 1,350 views to 95 votes is tragic. Thanks for your diligent efforts.
I guess most of the votes are from the regulars.
Aside from that, at this point, over 1,650 views occurred over 3 hours that did NOT vote.
It's impossible that that many people would consider this information above of no value, so it's the shamefully selfish behavior that irks me.
Consume info and skip giving back via a vote that costs nothing. Mind blowing.
Unfortunately an indicator of sentiment filled greed, an emotion we as a human race need to overcome more now than ever.
The ratio of votes to views is disgraceful.
Its obviously non-Steemians that followed a link. They count for views but can't upvote
That's correct. Many views are filtered to this site through youtube, twitter, and www.cryptocurrencytrends.info . The growth of the blog is huge, which will eventually lend to more people signing up who can then give their vote. Also, the payouts are lower than expected because there are many many many people who are brand new to steemit just to see Haejin's blog and post questions or comments. They certainly are appreciated and will need time to build up their payout value.
If the same person views it 10 x then it’s shows up as 10 views . Views is misleading they are not original views
Why will someone read a post for that much time?
maybe someone didn't finish it first time around and came back ..
This was a day for the record books guys...i have a feeling that some futures are already being tested and other hedge funds are trying to see what happens when the system is strained..i don't know about you guys, but i wouldn't be surprised if they called this off..the reason i say this is because look at the havoc this much volume caused..i have a few friends that either got stopped out or margin called on a few flash crashes and couldn't even log into their accounts to liquidate...i think this is why the banks just said today that they should not launch futures..they are afraid of a systemic risk to the system..and to me, they are right in some respects..im saying this to protect us, not them...by the way guys..i witnessed this first hand in 2008....this is what just got green lighted on the futures market...this is what may happen to the market...if you don't know what this is...read the comments...High frequency computers just destroyed the S&P emini futures market..i traded futures and like haejin said, there is no joy in it...this is why i wanted futures to be banned on Bitcoin..many others are excited but I'm nervous...just be diligent and careful guys...thanks for the great TA as always haejin
I know you know what you're doing my friend, but I would not have stops in place for BTC when expecting a full bull run, just for that reason. Rather, I would have stops, but they would be very low, unless of course they were in on margin. Just for your info....I have been watching as many markets as I can at one time. I know Kraken sucks and is slow as shit, but it has the least volatility that I have found. No flash crashes. In fact, it held strong while Bittrex fluctuated over a thousand dollars 3 times.....Kraken moved about 3 hundred bucks one time in that same time span. It's also holding a higher value than other markets. In addition, the buyers there are VERY strong. I witnessed live, many selling walls fall to single buys of over 5 million dollars at one time. I even shorted at one point because the other markets fell sharply, and I paid for it because Kraken held it's price firm. Never short a Bull Market.....sorry Haejin... :( but I got it all back and then much much more by hanging on through the dips. I'm still holding for 20k.
I also thought today that I bet the Chicago exchange is testing waters, or maybe even stocking up to offer clients special deals or something. I could not believe my eyes as I watched the books get destroyed even when it was sellers 300btc dead against buyer 1.3btc.....they want their money at the top, and every single time I thought the books were going to flip the script on me....buys would just come in and wipe out the walls so quick it was crazy.
Thank you for the informative post, it's very important for people to realize what is taking place this Sunday.....like you said, be diligent and careful. I won't be in at that time, just because it's unknown how the market will react. However.....I do believe these trades are already taking place on most markets, you can see Predatory and AAMs happening all the time with BTC, not to mention other Algorithms that are breaking up orders just the hold price range steady for both buyer and sellers.
A big difference is that I know of no markets giving rebates or points for trades......so I don't really see the advantage of running those scripts in a market not providing rewards, If you are in, and apply a limit order that is not posted, and do not have stops in place, they will just fluctuate the price until it hits your number at some point, and you still get what you intended from the trade. Please correct me if I am missing something here.
Thanks scarlet...i know this is a tough one..because nobody knows...it could just go to $50000 in a blink of an eye..my understanding is that most institutions could not participate in these markets until the futures markets were approved...this would make sense because of the unregulated exchanges and the massive spreads and flash crashes...the SEC doesn't look kindly on this...this is also why im surprised they approved futures...the types of things going on with these small exchanges would be front headline news and regulators would bring the hammer down..im trying to put myself in their shoes..if i was a hedge fund manager and knew i could manipulate the market, i would want lower prices...BUT...I was listening to Trace Mayer whom i respect a lot and he was saying that with cash settled futures and the intense and mind boggling demand they may get rekt...i personally would like to see that so they back off...this will be interesting to watch for sure...i personally don't use stops accept in BTC and i challenged my freinds on this..but it's really a personal decision...cheers friend
I think many will find it to be very risky to get involved. Most classic investors that I have seen don't want anything to do with the volatility. I know of some who own BTC but won't admit it to other classic market traders. There is a bit of a stigma to it in that world....however, the gang investors see the money and will work like Vegas to get in....meaning whatever it takes to sell a client on the idea of HUGE profits in short periods of time....which is true to some degree. I have a feeling it's kind of like what you just said....they may get screwed bad playing games with BTC. There could be many that see a price hop, and take the money and run....leaving the bags held by the futures traders are very very high prices. Of course, unfortunately, in both situation, the innocent and the idiot will also lose no matter what happens....but this is a risky trading realm, and we know that up down left and right. I have lost a LOT in a very short amount of time, and I have gained just as much in less time. I have a buddy who is a big time international investor for large clients. He says most of them are only slightly interested on a personal level, their companies are not at all. He also said anyone who makes classic investments only to this point will likely only place somewhere around 1% of their portfolio into crypto until the market gets a price and sits on a steady growth without the massive risk that we all take daily.
I can see it going either way....which I realize isn't helpful, but it's the truth. That being said, it's just like any other trading day to me in most ways. This is because every single day, people and groups attempt market manipulation, and many achieve it, but the goal of an investor my size isn't to be with the good guys or bad guys as people see them, but to be in the right place at the right time....just like with every trade, no matter who or what is moving the market
Totally agree with you scarlet...it's a double edged sword...im concerned that when wall street gets involved it will scare the new people to death...i liked the organic growth story BTC and crypto has had with everyone including the little guy being able to participate...but now, we don't know...the futures market was a shitshow...it is so taken over by HFT that it's just insane..i really really hope this genuine achievement we call BTC and crypto isn't hurt by the wolves that are waiting and can smell blood
Great conversation. Thanks guys. The cash settled part of this is a big deal since it means that buying and selling a future is really just a bet on what happens with the actual price of Bitcoin on the exchanges. So it won't be the driver of price but instead will react to it.
Thanks dm....that's a really good point....the only thing im worried about is ways around this such as large institutions or hedge funds are able to buy large quantities of BTC on the OTC market...so this is a way to get around this..i may be wrong on this so any feedback from others is appreciated...it will be interesting to see...but EW is a great tool to use to perhaps see it before it happens..this is why haejin is cool as a cucumber in his videos...lol
I agree completely on the manipulation in the futures market. It's how they keep the Gold/Silver price down even though we all know that inflation is way higher than 1% or whatever number is being claimed.
A large holder of BTC could use the futures market to make a short bet since they have the actual coin which would cover their ass if they were wrong. If they are correct, then they profit from their short.
I still don't see this type of action pushing around the REAL price of BTC. Let's see what transpires.
in my mind the way it will happen is due to major major players coming in...these guys on wall street put the whales in this game to shame...what they will do is buy shorts as a hedge and then buy tens of millions of dollars worth of BTC..when they are happy with the returns they will dump them...these types of dumps will be like nothing we have seen before..then they will keep their shorts and profit on the way down...then on top of that the HFT algos will chew up the weak and inexperienced...it will be interesting to see what happens..but! i think we will have a massive rally after they buy their hedges..we just gotta follow the waves and haejin's expertise of course to try and get out before the blood bath...great conversation guys..cheers and good luck to all
As always super good informations. Dear @haejin, sometimes you speak like a scientist, showing wide knowledge of many different topics. Being a curiosity-driven sceintist myself I rellay appreciate this side of you. Now speaking of CRYPTO,Hshare is showing a wealth cup isn't? I would appreciate your opinion
Regards, Giulio
You have so many talents! Elliot wave analysis AND kimchi making?! Keep up the good work, @haejin!
i like kimchi :) kamsa hamnida for your projections and targets
Haejin rules! No I'm sorry. Haejin makes the rules, the market will follow :)
I like!!
Solisrex..if you can find out how to please save it to where we can blow it up...i'd love to see your counts more closely friend..cheers
If you right click and select View Image (I'm using Firefox) it will blow it up.
thanks got it!!
Thanks for posting this, I was trying to figure out when the alts would legitimately start to pump. A lot of the charts point towards january, so it's nice to see a clearer picture with the end of december correction of btc.
Good day, in your opinion, how will bitcoin futures affect?
Leverage = Parabola
If your Kimchi is even half as good as your analysis it must be a real treat!
Hahahaha!! If it's only half as good it would be the best one ever made!
Can you post a TA on Dash, been a long time since the last Dash TA, thank you soo much for all the info you help us with, kimchii sarang reh yo.
@haejin thank you for some more TA wisdom. I have a question regarding the adjustments you must have to make between producing your blogs/videos. For example, in today's morning update, you said the top we were experiencing, or almost experiencing, would be the end of a white wave #1, and that a correction would likely follow. Now in this evening update, the price moved a lot higher, so you moved the top of the white wave to match it, but this is now a white wave #3. I understand that as the price moves, you have to be willing to change your probable price pathways to reflect that movement. But how do you go about making calls like that? What is your process, when you leave the chart and it looks like it's the crest of wave 1, then come back to it and it's different? How do you decide to change your counts and move the targets? Whenever you make a video, you explain very clearly how you got to your conclusion. Then you do the same again with the next video. But sometimes there's a big discrepancy in between them, where the price moves unexpectedly. I'd love to hear about your approach in these situations.
Also, in your essay you talk about needing a different tool to chart time, than the tool you use to chart price. Have you looked into Fibonacci Time Zones at all? It looks like they could be applied as fractals to potentially do some magical forecasting. What do you reckon? Here is a link to an analyst on Twitter showing some examples.
Different degree of trends. I go from subwaves to higher degree of trend waves.
Find work for sentiment derivatives. Time is not.
This is very conservative analysis! Thanks Haejin!
P.S. I love Kimchi.
Great post! Very interesting thoughts! Would love to hear what you think of my post!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@college-is-dumb/bitcoin-crash-sunday-bitcoin-overpriced-investment-banks-manipulating-futures
You are posting your spam to every blog I am reading. Please read the comment I just made to you on the other post. I'll continue downvoting when I see your spam, until I hear from you that you've stopped.
If this forecast is correct, it will be a great lesson for me because I did not take the pertinent actions for this scenario.
Regardless of what is going to happen. It will be a great lesson.
I'm a newbie in this world and I made bad decisions in the previous months. Suddenly I feel like I lost a great opportunity.
I do not feel ashamed to say, but I lost money.
@haejin I found you recently and seeing your publication history you have done a good job in guiding people to follow the path correctly. I would have probably made better decisions if I had found you a little earlier.
I think it is necessary to go through these types of situations to learn the great lesson and with great humility I will reflect on this
There will be people who have gone through worse things.
If there are other people in a similar situation we should not feel bad (although it costs a lot). We must take it as part of the learning process.
The important thing is to have health and keep forward.
A good trader Is a bad trader who forgives himself for his mistakes and losses and learns his lessons and tries again.
You are in the right place. Haejin has gone through the blood, sweat and tears already and is showing us the way.
Make sure you go through the links at the end of his posts. Pure gold!
i dont know how to share my count, but i think wave 5 topped at 16752 and the abc correction would drive it down to 13180usd. i'm a noob tho.
Take screen shot, and copy/paste.
salt them cabbages! with or without fish sauce for the stuffing? want mine without plz! 😁
This is mind numbingly rapid. BTC is THE KING.
I’m not sure how anyone can call a top here when it’s going straight vertical...and I love cabbage
Yeah, that hockey stick is bent a little too much, LOL!
@haejin Don't you think the big guys at Wallstreet will make sure that Sunday the prices starts to go bananas in the bad way?
See conversation between @scarlet7 and @shawnster above.
Yes but where is eth at? Are we expecting to complete a wave 5 up still?
My estimate is ETH broke out of a (macro-level) bullish barrier triangle on (roughly) Nov 23. It already finished wave 1 and is soon finishing up wave 2.
I bought back in right after your post AND right before BTC crashed. Ugh
A good trader Is a bad trader who forgives himself for his mistakes and losses learns his lessons and tries again.
same :(
HOLD, it will come back
I was planning to buy back in around 13k before his post ://
What is your prognosis for SBD?
I dont see any recent updates unless I am missing it.
thanks for taking off from your kimchi obligation to make this post. very informative as usual.
Thanks and need advice from all good trading friends.. I know anyone smart enough to follow Haejin here is smart enough to offer some good insight. .. I know Haejin is busy helping making the best kimchi..
Here it goes have most port. in cold wallet .. bitshares doesn't have liquidity yet.. somewhere between a hedge strategy and swing trade.. recently more heavily weighted in eth and this can do easy now directly via this wallet, however feel bad about it now with 40% diff between btc/eth. however eth just now looking up.
a. what are best hedging strategies against correction/reversal on main holdings versus fiat or other non-phasic tokens? b. do I have to open counterparty risk trading account to do this right? Bitshares not sure yet about a strategy without more liquidity there yet? What am I missing? Thanks
Bit usd
I will give this a try on the bitshares platform. Has anyone here withdrawn to a us bank from open ledger? looking forward to ocash.
I love your wonderful charting .
It is perfect, the value up without limit
i think the futures dump will correct to a level below 11k area then a big bounce back upto 16k area
We may be wrong here. I think this party is over. I believe we may head back down to 11k.
This correction was obviuos from the three consecutive 4hr intervals of over 70K volume as compared the the previuos avg of just over 20K. It was overbought and I sense a pump in there as well in the past 12 hrs. I would not be surprised with a 30% correcton back to around $12k over the next week. The whales sold out in the past 12 hrs.
ROFL the kimchi statement had me rolling! Love South Korea when I visited a few years back! Keep up the awesome posts man!
What a wild day we've had. If I didn't witness firsthand what happened in Bitcoin over the last 2 days, I would call you crazy. But it really could bounce up!
30K... possible
My bet is 50K by Feb 2018
Didn't Cliff High say $27000 bitcoin ? Everyone thought he was nuts but looks like it could be true ! Hope so because he also predicted massive run in Gold and Silver !
Thank you!
this is my count. i'm a begginer tho
4 retraces to prior wave 4 of lesser degree. Yours is too deep. Count sub waves of 3 to find lesser 4
updated
What are your thoughts on this? Speaker suggest that Bitcoin is not following any of the technical analysis...
Hi @good-karma,
Elliott Waves states that news or events shall arrive to justify the forecast and never the reverse. This means news does not move price, rather price moves the news. Price is the earliest reflection of sentiment. News and events are earlier reflections of senitment but more downstream and not as early as price.
Ther is a quote: "What are words, but symbols of symbols, hence, twice removed from reality." So, price is a reflection of sentiment which itself is reflection of thought. So, price is not perfect, but is the most earliest or direct reflection of thought and so price analysis gives the earliest and most accurate peak around the corner. Technical Analysis is a process of identifying as many possibilities, narrowing down to a handful of probabilities and then selecting the primary and alternate price pathways to forecast.
This gentleman is using the news, events, fundamentals...all downstream to Price from a reflection of sentiment perspective. I disagree.
My projection: Dow 45,000; SPX 6,500 in the next 12 months.
Bitshares: $342 in the years to come
Bitcoin: $3.6 Mil in the years to come
If you'd like, we can chat via skype, please contact me at [email protected]
PS: An upvote consideration would be much appreciated. The objective of my blog is to help and do no harm. I have so far an impressive record of calling about 94% accurate calls leading to MASSIVE profits. I'm giving away my secret sauces learned in over 20 years. Upvotes help me gain visibility so many others can perhaps see my blogs and be helped towards greater profits. I show and teach my techniques freely and without reserve...it's my way of giving back.
@haejin - thanks for your long term predictions on Bitcoin and Bitshares. Do you have any long term price predictions on EOS, Steem, Ethereum or any others, which are good long term holds for people who just want to put some in the bottom drawer and not trade them? Cheers Scott
Such a blessing to have your wisdom on our side. Thank you.
I will be thinking how to guide my children to use any Massive profits for doing good in the world...maybe build a hospital or clinic or housing for the less fortunate. Thank you, Haejin 🙏
Thank you for your comment! Very interesting quote, i do agree with your comment, news/events are reflection of price in some ways. Upvoted! Keep up the great work, brother!
I keep feeling like this huge impending vertical for BTS and BTC is next year (much closer), looking at whats happening globally and the rate BTC is climbing and the rate of people entering crypto. I heard someone say online (if its true) over 100,000 new crypto accounts are requested on exchanges every day!!
I feel this huge need to hurry up in obtaining more of these two. I realize this is more news based.. but reflects my own personal sentiment of the topic, 100 monkey effect could kick in soon across the masses for crypto.
Even in the last two weeks alone I am noticing more mainstream news articles talking bitcoin (good & bad), more people in my workplace, even at the gym.. seems so close..
Always up-voting of course, and re-steeming.
My personal strategy is get as much BTC, BTS and XVG as possible, hold dont sell until ''the event'' and trade the rest for some profits and to pay for more of these beauties!
HAEJIN THE BEST!
Thanks for your analysis and I hope the cabbage-washing went well 😂
Great post! Very interesting thoughts! Would love to hear what you think of my post!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@college-is-dumb/bitcoin-crash-sunday-bitcoin-overpriced-investment-banks-manipulating-futures
Not speaking for @haejin, but for myself: I think very little of your post (which I haven't read) because I've seen your spam on dozens of posts today, and just started downvoting it.
This one's the third one I've downvoted. I'll remove them all if you address my concerns in my initial comment.
And why should I believe you? You said 6-8 weeks ago that the BTC will collapse when it reaches the 7-9K highs. And look at that now. Your philosophy here to say huge things because it brings more people to your community.
attila73, you should do your OWN due diligence. As for Haejin-- people are coming to his community because they like what he has to say and unlike other "gurus," actually puts together thoughtful tutorials for FREE.
I believe he said possible to drop to be prepared just in case. You don't have to read this blog. You can do your own charts and make your own calls or follow someone else. You can join some signals group to tell you what to do and pay a bunch of money or follow Mr. Lee and get free lessons right here on how to do your own TA.