I agree for the most part, but I am not so sure that it was the noobs who panic sold that drove the market down. The small guys are playing with 100s of thousands of dollars at most, most of them much smaller amounts, as you stated there was billions of dollars of volume every day.
I think Chinese NY, FUD around regulations, Scams like Bitconnect, FUD around futures and the Issues with Tether all culminated at a point where BTC was at an ATH and an attractive sell point for many early hodlers and whales. Once it started it snowballed as FUD after FUD in the news kept coming out and spooking the market lower and lower. Smart money drove the market lower and I feel many a noob got burned on the way down.
Good point, but thinking on it a little more, does big money necessarily mean seasoned veteran in crypto? Just because investment bankers started to play doesn't mean they're professionals in this investment category. I mean, I've been trading stocks for over ten years, but I've only been here for a couple. Then again I didn't spook, so maybe you're right after all.
Haha, that is also a good point, one idea I have tried to express to people for a long time since pondering trends and why things happen at all, in any sector, in anything at all is; there are always unfathomable amounts of ideas, outcomes, reasons, for anything to happen at all.
In regards to trading, I have found many people get caught in the trap of thinking a market moves in any direction as a type of hive mind almost instantaneously. Traders, Investors, Speculators and everyone in between buy and sell for all sorts of different reasons and they buy and sell at different price points. The markets are a living, breathing beast.
I think you are right, a whale might play with a few million dollars but he might not care if he loses some because it's only 2% of his wealth. People who buy at different prices will have different levels at which they are spooked, some easily, some not so. some people are willing to sell at a loss, others will never sell unless their portfolio meets their requirements for retirement, FOMOers are perhaps happy to get out at break even. The variables are incalculable. To me at least.