Bitcoin has been rather tame as of late, at least by its standards.
Over the past few weeks it has gone mostly sideways, with lower highs and higher lows becoming the norm.
We are now entering about 2 weeks of this kind of price action.
(Source: https://www.coindesk.com/trapped-below-7k-is-bitcoin-prepping-for-a-big-breakout/)
As you can see the range is tightening while making lower highs and higher lows.
Cool, so what does this mean?
Well that depends on what you believe, but technical theory would dictate that periods of compressing volatility are often followed by periods of increased volatility.
Many charts would also show that kind of price action as well.
There is an old saying that goes something along the lines of this:
"The wider the base, the higher in space"
Also, there is something along the lines of this:
"The wider the range and the longer the duration of the consolidation zone, the more violent the breakout tends to be"
Which basically means that the longer prices go sideways and consolidate the more violent the move tends to be when it eventually does break out.
Why is this interesting?
This is interesting to me for several reasons.
For one, it is occuring after a prolonged downtrend which would be a sign that the trend is about to change or that prices are getting set to continue in the direction of the prevailing trend. Either way, prices are at an inflection point.
Secondly, it is interesting to me because of the timing of this pattern.
Traditionally the 1st quarter is a weak time of the year for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Plus there is a major tax liability for many cryptocurrency investors coming up in a few days that may have not been the case in years prior.
Overall, we are just getting past the weak time of the year seasonally, and taxes are due in less than a week.
Which makes me think that this pattern is likely setting up to be a reversal pattern and prices are likely to bounce from here.
Meaning that I am anticipating some bullish price action in the weeks ahead.
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
I think the fireworks are about to begin in the crypto markets. The margin shorts on Bitfinex have built up to new all-time highs.
Great stat! Thanks for sharing. And yes, I agree.
I’ve started looking for a big boom in the next 2 years. Anything before then is gravy! I would like to see something happen sooner rather than later! Thanks for the update!
big move is coming
I agree ...We have almost reached the bottom with strong support at 6500...After april 17th things will be bullish....
That is my hope as well.
I think that it is more than obvious crypto is about to bounce and I see bitcoin bouncing to 8500.....before the REAL PUKE
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@heyimsnuffles/usdbtc-chart-crypto-market-looking-bouncy-fyi-this-isn-t-the-bottom
Ha, so the lows are not in, in your opinion? What prices are you looking for?
I personally think that 5K breaks...then it's got my interest alot....time bottoms are very hard and the first bottom is not the bottom usually. So I think the best time to start averaging in is the 5K break and then hope for acrack below 4K....will be an 80% drop from all time highs then which bitcoin has done 5 times in it's history.
I am betting on a sixth.
Makes sense to me
Strongest resistance is on 3K level. That's where I gonna plant my buying points.
I see what you mean with the 3K level...the 3k-4k levels will be gifts looking back in a few years. Pinpointing the bottom to the tick will be difficult
Great information...
what part did you like best?
I agree too
@jrcornel Sure BTC will change very soon, why? There are more than 5 reasons, but maybe the true reason is unknown for almost all of us.
You brought the future markets, for me it is one of the first reasons, why our BTC is bear, I am not thinking about small coincidence; normally in economy it is not coincidence...
Will read you soon.
This feels like the futures contract theory two or three months ago whereby prices were supposedly manipulated and as soon as we get past the expiration, we’d shoot back up. Too much bias on the upside and on a single event. US market is smaller than Asian and most don’t report taxes on cryptos yet, so that doesn’t make sense either. Thus I’d bet on the break down on disappointment that taxes wasn’t the causation.
USD was the largest or second largest market in bitcoin and cryptocurrency in 2017. There is about $25 billion (estimated) to be owed on capital gains from 2017 alone. While that doesn't explain all the selling, it likely has been a contributing factor. Either way, we will know for sure in about a week. Tax day is right around the corner.
Regarding the futures markets, there is a bit of coincidence that since they have launched, prices of bitcoin have gone pretty much straight down. While there hasn't been outright visible manipulation on those markets, they could provide the avenue for those to place bets on moves to the downside, while manipulating them in the spot markets. Just some thoughts...
Most likely 6000 was the bottom. And we are going to challenge that long term bearish trendline before April 22nd. But even though things look good, we should also be prepared for the worst. Worst case we could be looking at $4000 or even $3500 for a short while to really shake out the last ones. At that point there wont be any more sellers. The volume would be something like 5-6 billion for cryptos as a whole on the daily.
Very likely we are in the accumulation phase now and that we will see a slow rise towards 12k and then a parabolic run towards retesting of 20k. And I suspect it is very likely we will push through and head for 50k this year.
$50k this year? I like your thinking! Personally, I am around the $20k-$25k mark as a high for this year.
It doesn't matter whether it's $20k, $25k, or $50k this year. All I want is profit. Whatever "k" we are aiming for for this year, I am still very much convinced that it's better than dumping my idle cash with my bank.
All you want is profit? I think you will lose out my friend. You have to be prepared to hodl for years if you want the real gains. If you're just in it for some quick profits you'll never see those huge ROI's. We all want profit, but are you in cryptos for the right reasons? Do you understand the fundamentals? Or are you going to sell Bitcoin when it hits 15k..then buy back in when it hits 25k..then sell when it goes back down to 12k..then buy when its at 30k..then sell at 20k..then buy in at 60k..then sell at 20k.
I mean..people do lose a lot of money even in insane bull markets. I know people who actually LOST money during 2017. A hodler would have made 20x-30x throught 2017..but a mongoloid trader without the right skill/mindset could easily have lost all his money.
I can't agree with you less. In the real sense, making profit all comes down to perspective. That's why we have both short and long term trades. They both serve their purposes.
Sure. Except 90% lose when daytrading. You're up against experts and robots. But the market need losers as well. And in that sense you will serve a purpose :)
Last year at around this time (2017) I predicted $7000 bitcoin on january 1st 2018.
I was way off..as Bitcoin reached 20 thousand just before christmas. But I can see now that I was just about spot on, except I didn't expect the parabolic run to 20k.
I'm not saying I'm nostradamus or some genius chartist. I'm just looking at the fundamentals. 50k might be the high point in the next year or so. And we will come down from there, to perhaps 25-30k, or even less. But I don't think that matters much. When we go above 20k towards 50k more people realize where this is going. And the pressure builds up. It's almost a mathematical certainty. It's strange how more people don't see this?
Mathematical certainty?! Now you are sounding like John McAfee. :)
Haha. I added "almost" just to be a little bit less crazy :)
3K will come after summer. Great time to trade in fiat for btc :-)
I agree! I think the Bitcoin market is well-coiled and well-oiled to make a move up! A lot of good news has happened without any market reaction... it feels like positive momentum has been on hold so it hasn't been priced in the market yet. We will soon find out!
Yes, I have noticed that as well. Fundamentals have been getting better in certain areas while prices continue to slide. Once the momentum flips there should be a nice rally in store.
Bitcoin has dropped at the start of every year for the past few years but recovered during the rest of the year. This could be the turning point we are waiting for.
The big day is coming! The tax date in US. The big downward pressure on crypto will be finally gone.
Looking forward to the positive price breakout.I predict bitcoin might go as high as $50k.
Yes!
This bear market can't go on forever!
But we might have a new low in the short-term and then a bullrun
:P
Last bearmarket for a year and a half. Be patient. After summer the goodies will come.
Patience is key in trading yes!
Maybe the uptrend is finally in?
With such a rise today, it seems like we can finally be sure about that!
But, you never know with cryptos and trading in general!
It's so uncertain and random...
I think we just saw the beginning of the big move up!
Very nice bitcoin crypto
I appreciate your blog
Thanks for sharing busy......
I wish what you say happens !! Its been long since bitcoin dropped to almost half and now playing baby games.
Lets see what happens!!
Thank you for the notification
Thanks for sharing
Trapped Below $7K: Is Bitcoin Prepping for a Big Breakout?
I agree! I think the Bitcoin market is well-coiled and well-oiled to make a move up! A lot of good news market reaction
We are expecting the trend will go up shortly and crypto market will rise again. Thanks for sharing thoughtful writing.
EOS bustin' a move at the moment! BTC will trend (upwards) eventually.
I'll just have to HODL and see what happens, if after then next month it hasn't gotten bullish, I don't think it will until after the election.
interesting, knowing the fluctuating that is the cryptography and the history and the follow-up of the publication, it is possible to wait for this
Same here, I noticed that even after going lower the prices don't stay that low for long and after climbing the gains can't be held onto for long.
The whole week has been within a range, I anticipate better weeks ahead.
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I definitely think a big move is coming. I hope it waits until after june so i can pick up some more cheap alts LOLLLLLLLL
I noticed that same bear flag forming over the past two days as well. :-X hope we can rally off that $6,400-6,600 mark if we do drop down.
i think this time is going up
It is difficult to predict the market in crypto. It can also go down although the interest is there to move forward.
I think we will see Bitcoin at 3K in October.
All of this is so new for me, certainly appreciate your views on cryptocurrency!
Your post is very good!
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